An algorithm for the computation of posterior moments and densities using simple importance sampling

In earlier work (van Dijk, 1984, Chapter 3) one of the authors discussed the use of Monte Carlo integration methods for the computation of the multivariate integrals that are defined in the posterior moments and densities of the parameters of interest of econometric models. In the present paper we describe the computational steps of one Monte Carlo method, which is known in the literature as importance sampling. Further, a set of standard programs is available, which may be used for the implementation of a simple case of importance sampling. The computer programs have been written in FORTRAN 77

Hydrogen peroxide in exhaled air of healthy children: reference values

An increased content of hydrogen peroxide (H2O2), a marker of inflammation, has been described in the condensate of exhaled air from adults and children with inflammatory lung disorders, including asthma. However, the normal range of [H2O2] in the exhaled air condensate from healthy children has not been established. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine the reference range of exhaled [H2O2] in healthy school-aged children. Ninety-three healthy nonsmoking children (48 female and 45 male, mean age 10 yrs, range 8-13 yrs), with a negative history for allergy, eczema or respiratory disease and with a normal lung function, participated. Exhaled air condensate was examined fluorimetrically for the presence of H2O2. In addition, the reproducibility of [H2O2] within subjects and between days and the stability of [H2O2] during storage at -20 degrees C were assessed. The median [H2O2] in the exhaled air condensate of all children was 0.13 microM, with a 2.5-97.5% reference range of <0.01-0.48 microM. No significant difference existed between males and females. There was no correlation between exhaled [H2O2] and age or lung function. Repeated [H2O2] measurements on 2 consecutive days showed satisfactory within-subject reproducibility and [H2O2] in stored samples remained stable for at least 1 month at -20 degrees C. In conclusion, this study provides reference data for exhaled hydrogen peroxide in a large group of healthy children. The observed levels were lower than those reported previously for healthy adults and were independent of age, sex and lung function

Effects of flutter and PEP mask physiotherapy on symptoms and lung function in children with cystic fibrosis

Recently, the flutter was introduced as a new device to improve sputum expectoration. Preliminary data suggested a significant improvement in expectoration and lung function during flutter treatment in patients with cystic fibrosis (CF). The aim of the present study was to compare the effects of the flutter and the positive expiratory pressure (PEP) mask on symptoms and lung function in children with CF. In a crossover randomized study 22 patients with CF (mean age 12 yrs, range 7-17 yrs) performed physiotherapy using either the flutter or the PEP mask twice a day during two treatment periods of 2 weeks, separated by a one week wash-out period, in a random sequence. Lung function parameters (peak expiratory flow, forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in one second, maximal midexpiratory flow, maximal expiratory flow at 25% of FVC, thoracic gas volume, total lung capacity, residual volume/total lung capacity, airway resistance and specific airway conductance) and changes in transcutaneous oxygen haemoglobin saturation were assessed before and after the first supervised session and at the end of each treatment period. Throughout the study peak flow was measured and symptoms were scored daily. No significant changes in any lung function parameter occurred after a single session or after 2 weeks of physiotherapy with either method. There was no difference in acceptability and subjective efficacy. In conclusion, any superiority of the flutter over the positive expiratory pressure mask technique for expectoration could not be confirmed during 2 weeks of daily treatment in children with cystic fibrosis. Both methods are well accepted by children and do not change lung function. Long-term comparison of both methods, including expectoration measurements, seems to be required for further evaluation of the potential success of physiotherapy in cystic fibrosis

Recurrence and survival after resection of adenocarcinoma of the gastric cardia

In a retrospective study, the results after resection of carcinoma of the gastric cardia in the era without neoadjuvant therapy or extended lymph node dissection were evaluated. All 184 patients who underwent resection between January 1983 and December 1993 were included. Recurrence of disease, survival and prognostic factors were determined. The overall cumulative 5-year recurrence rate was 71% and the survival rate 23%. Multivariate analysis identified locoregional lymph node and distant metastases as the crucial prognosticators of recurrence of disease and survival. These results were similar to those from a previous study concerning our patients operated during the years 1983-88. The prognosis of a resected cardiacarcinoma has remained unchanged in our hands over the past 10 years. These results stress the importance of exploring new ways, such as the use of new diagnostic tools, to optimize preoperative patient selection and more aggressive treatment regimens to improve final outcom

Genomic alterations in malignant transformation of Barrett's esophagus

The incidence of adenocarcinoma in Barrett's esophagus has been increasing rapidly over the past decades. Neoplastic progression is characterized by three well-defined premalignant stages: metaplasia, low-grade dysplasia, and high-grade dysplasia. A genome-wide overview, based on comparative genomic hybridization, was performed, evaluating 30 Barrett's adenocarcinomas and 25 adjacent precursors, i.e., 6 metaplasias, 9 low-grade dysplasias, and 10 high-grade dysplasias. The frequency of losses and gains significantly increased in the subsequent stages of malignant transformation. Losses of 5q21-q23, 9p21, 17p12-13.1, 18q21, and Y were revealed in low-grade dysplasias. This was followed by loss of 7q33-q35 and gains of 7p12-p15, 7q21-q22, and 17q21 in high-grade dysplasias along with high-level amplification (HLA) of 7q21 and 17q21. In the invasive cancers, additional losses of 3p14-p21, 4p, 4q, 8p21, 13q14-q31, 14q24.3-q31, 16q21-q22, and 22q as well as gains of 3q25-q27, 8q23-24.1, 12p11.2-12, 15q22-q24, and 20q11.2-q13.1 were distinguished along with HLAs of 8p12-p22 and 20q11.2-q13.1. Approximately one-third of the alterations in the dysplasias were also found in the adjacent adenocarcinomas, illustrating that multiple clonal lineages can be present in Barrett's esophagus. Novel findings include loss on 7q, gain on 12p, and the observation of several HLAs in high-grade dysplasias. Furthermore, loss of 7q33-q35 was found to represent a significant distinction between low-grade and high-grade dysplasia (P = 0.01), whereas loss of 16q21-q22 and gain of 20q11.2-q13.1 were disclosed to significantly discriminate between high-grade dysplasia and adenocarcinoma (P = 0.02 and P = 0.03, respectively). This inventory of genetic aberrations increases our understanding of malignant transformation in Barrett's esophagus and might provide useful biomarkers for disease progression

Interrupter resistance in preschool children: measurement characteristics and reference values

There is a need for quick, reliable, and noninvasive lung function tests to assess airway obstruction in preschool chil