New Zealand Housing Markets: Just a Bit-Player in the A-League?

House price trends in each of New Zealand and Australia are frequently discussed as national level developments. Sub-national developments are also important, especially where regions display idiosyncratic trends driven either by demand factors (differential income patterns) or by supply factors (geographical or regulatory restrictions). At a broader scale, it is possible that the New Zealand housing market, or a specific regional housing market (e.g. Auckland), is part of a broader Australasian housing market. If this were the case, New Zealand house prices would converge to a broadly stable ratio of house prices in Australia. One reason this could occur is if international macroeconomic and asset price trends dominate housing market outcomes. New Zealand authorities may then be relatively powerless to control the major real determinants of house prices through regulatory or other policies. We extract the major drivers of house prices at regional levels within New Zealand and Australia to examine the degree of differentiation across regional housing markets. While some minor regional differences are apparent, the evidence points to the dominance of a single trans-Tasman housing trend.House price convergence; international housing markets; Australasia

Is there long-run convergence of regional house prices in the UK?

This paper investigates the long-run convergence of regional house prices in the UK. Using a variety of econometric methods, existing studies have failed to reach a consensus on whether or not regional house prices are cointegrated and exhibit long-run constancy relative to each other. We propose the application of a new test that combines principal components analysis with unit root testing to throw new light on the regional convergence debate. Using mix-adjusted quarterly house price data for 1973-2005, we find that existing unit root and cointegration methodologies indicate the presence of multiple stochastic trends with, at best, very weak evidence of long-run convergence. However, testing for the stationarity of the largest principal component based on regional house price differentials suggests that all UK regional house prices are driven by a single common stochastic trend and can be regarded as exhibiting strong convergence in the long-run. Further analysis suggests there is a high degree of persistence in regional house price differentials.House prices, convergence, unit roots, cointegration, principal components

Credit losses in Australasian banking

We analyse determinants of bank credit losses in Australasia. Despite sizeable credit losses over the past two decades, ours is the first systematic study to do so. Analysis is based on a comprehensive dataset retrieved from original financial reports of 32 Australasian banks (1980- 2005). Credit losses rise when the macro economy is weak. Asset markets, particularly the equity market, are also important. Larger banks provide more for credit losses while less efficient banks have greater asset quality problems. Strong loan growth translates into significantly higher credit losses with a lag of 2-4 years. Finally, the results show strong evidence of income smoothing activities by banks

Wanted: Christian Perspectives in the Philosophy of Mathematics

This paper describes the three types of theory about universals, beginning in each case with a classical historical formulation and moving to its restatement in recent analytic philosophy. It will then suggest ways in which Christian perspectives bear on theories of universals and so on mathematics

Was the United Kingdom's policy of pushing for the return of Rohingya refugees to Myanmar following ethnic cleansing in 2017 realistic?

Was the United Kingdom's policy of pushing for the return of Rohingya refugees to Myanmar following ethnic cleansing in 2017 realistic?This article explores the United Kingdom’s response to the Rohingya Crisis which began in August 2017, resulting in the ethnic cleansing of 600,000 Rohingya Muslims in the first nine weeks of violence, with a minimum of 6,700 people being killed in the process. The United Kingdom reacted with condemnation, and began immediately calling for the safe return of refugees who had fled the violence, to their homes in Rakhine state, Myanmar. Using the testimony from Mark Field MP, Minister for Asia, in a Foreign Affairs Committee meeting, this essay assesses this policy of pushing for the return of the Rohingya to their homes. Using primary sources available to Britain at the time its policy was formed, this essay argues that Britain’s approach was not only unrealistic with regards to providing an environment in which Rohingya refugees would be provided safety, but also in relation to Burmese authorities’ desires to take back Rohingya refugees. Myanmar’s campaign of ethnic cleansing intentionally created the environment in which either the Rohingya would never return, or they would return to state-controlled concentration camps. Secondary material expires the history of violent state policies against the Rohingya in Myanmar, and Britain’s policy is shown to not only be unworkable due to such policies, but would actively endanger those refugees who chose to return. Czy polityka Wielkiej Brytanii w kwestii powrotu uchodźców Rohyngia do Birmy po czystkach etnicznych w 2007 roku była realistyczna?Artykuł omawia kryzys, który rozpoczął się w sierpniu 2017 roku i spowodował czystki etniczne obejmujące około 600 000 muzułmanów z ludu Rohyngya, przy czym w pierwszych 9 tygodniach gwałtownych zamieszek śmierć poniosło co najmniej 6700 osób. Zjednoczone Królestwo potępiło czystki i natychmiast wezwało do umożliwienia uchodźcom bezpiecznego powrotu do ich domów w Birmie. Na podstawie wyjaśnień ministra ds. Azji Marka Fielda, członka parlamentu, Komitet ds. Spraw Zagranicznych na swym posiedzeniu dokonał oceny tej polityki, polegającej na nakłanianiu ich do powrotu do Birmy. Opierając się na źródłach dostępnych w Wielkiej Brytanii w chwili, gdy tworzyły się zręby tej polityki, autor eseju dowodzi, że ten kierunek polityczny był nie tylko nierealistyczny w odniesieniu do możliwości zapewnienia uchodźcom bezpieczeństwa, ale także sprzeczny z zamiarami władz Birmy w kwestii przyjęcia uchodźców. Birmańska kampania czystek etnicznych świadomie stworzyła sytuację, w której Rohingya nigdy nie powrócą bądź wracaliby do kontrolowanych przez państwo obozów koncentracyjnych. Dostępne opracowania analizują historię przemocy wobec ludności Rohyngya w Birmie i ukazują politykę Wielkiej Brytanii nie tylko jako nieskuteczną z powodu takich posunięć politycznych, ale także wskazują, że zagrażałaby ona życiu decydujących się na powrót uchodźców