How (In)accurate Are Demand Forecasts in Public Works Projects? The Case of Transportation

This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$59 billion. The study shows with very high statistical significance that forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation infrastructure projects. The result is substantial downside financial and economic risks. Such risks are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision makers, to the detriment of social and economic welfare. For nine out of ten rail projects passenger forecasts are overestimated; average overestimation is 106 percent. This results in large benefit shortfalls for rail projects. For half of all road projects the difference between actual and forecasted traffic is more than plus/minus 20 percent. Forecasts have not become more accurate over the 30-year period studied. If techniques and skills for arriving at accurate demand forecasts have improved over time, as often claimed by forecasters, this does not show in the data. The causes of inaccuracy in forecasts are different for rail and road projects, with political causes playing a larger role for rail than for road. The cure is transparency, accountability, and new forecasting methods. The challenge is to change the governance structures for forecasting and project development. The article shows how planners may help achieve this.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1302.2544, arXiv:1303.6571, arXiv:1302.364

Limited clinical efficacy of azacitidine in transfusion-dependent, growth factor-resistant, low- and Int-1-risk MDS:Results from the nordic NMDSG08A phase II trial

This prospective phase II study evaluated the efficacy of azacitidine (Aza) + erythropoietin (Epo) in transfusion-dependent patients with lower-risk myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS). Patients ineligible for or refractory to full-dose Epo + granulocyte colony stimulation factors for 48 weeks and a transfusion need of ≥ 4 units over 8 weeks were included. Aza 75mgm -2 d-1, 5/28 days, was given for six cycles; non-responding patients received another three cycles combined with Epo 60 000 units per week. Primary end point was transfusion independence (TI). All patients underwent targeted mutational screen for 42 candidate genes. Thirty enrolled patients received ≥ one cycle of Aza. Ten patients discontinued the study early, 7 due to adverse events including 2 deaths. Thirty-eight serious adverse events were reported, the most common being infection. Five patients achieved TI after six cycles and one after Aza + Epo, giving a total response rate of 20%. Mutational screening revealed a high frequency of recurrent mutations. Although no single mutation predicted for response, SF3A1 (n = 3) and DNMT3A (n = 4) were only observed in nonresponders. We conclude that Aza can induce TI in severely anemic MDS patients, but efficacy is limited, toxicity substantial and most responses of short duration. This treatment cannot be generally recommended in lower-risk MDS. Mutational screening revealed a high frequency of mutations

Arcanobacterium phocae infection in mink (Neovison vison), seals (Phoca vitulina, Halichoerus grypus) and otters (Lutra lutra)

Abstract Background Infectious skin disorders are not uncommon in mink. Such disorders are important as they have a negative impact on animal health and welfare as well as on the quality and value of the fur. This study presents the isolation of Arcanobacterium phocae from mink with severe skin lesions and other pathological conditions, and from wild seals and otters. Results In 2015, A. phocae was isolated for the first time in Denmark from outbreaks of dermatitis in mink farms. The outbreaks affected at least 12 farms. Originating from these 12 farms, 23 animals cultured positive for A. phocae. The main clinical findings were necrotizing pododermatitis or dermatitis located to other body sites, such as the lumbar and cervical regions. A. phocae could be isolated from skin lesions and in nine animals also from liver, spleen and lung, indicating a systemic spread. The bacterium was also, for the first time in Denmark, detected in dead seals (n = 9) (lungs, throat or wounds) and otters (n = 2) (throat and foot). Conclusions An infectious skin disorder in mink associated with A. phocae has started to occur in Danish farmed mink. The origin of the infection has not been identified and it is still not clear what the pathogenesis or the port of entry for A. phocae infections are

Outcome of SARS-CoV-2 infection among patients with common variable immunodeficiency and a matched control group: A Danish nationwide cohort study.

The risk of severe adult respiratory coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and the course of the infection among individuals with common variable immunodeficiency (CVID) relative to the general population have been a matter of debate. We conducted a Danish nationwide study comparing the timing of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, the risk of first confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, re-infection, and the outcome of infection among individuals with CVID relative to an age- and gender matched control group. Cox regression was used to calculate incidence rate ratios. The CVID patients received SARS-CoV-2 vaccinations earlier than those included in the population control group. Even so, the risks of both first infection and re-infection were increased among the individuals with CVID. The CVID group also had increased risk for hospital contacts due to SARS-CoV-2 infection relative to the general population. However, reassuringly, the risk of mechanical ventilation and death did not differ between the groups, but the numbers were low in both groups, making the estimates uncertain. Though this is the largest study to investigate the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infections and outcomes hereof among individuals with CVID relative to the general population, we cannot rule out minor differences in severity, which might only be detectable with an even larger sample size