Climate change and agriculture : global and regional effects using an economic model of international trade

Empirical estimates of the economic welfare implications of the impact of climate change on global agricultural production are made. Agricultural yield changes resulting from climate scenarios associated with a doubling of atmospheric trace gases are used as an input into a global model of agricultural supply and demand. The agricultural production, price and economic welfare implications for 32 separate geographic regions are computed for 9 scenarios. The 9 scenarios reported are based on 3 different general circulation models (GCMs), estimated with and without the direct effects of carbon dioxide on plant growth, and with different levels of adaptation. The major conclusions are that economic welfare losses tend to be more severe in developing countries, major agricultural exporters can gain significantly if world agricultural prices rise, and the carbon dioxide fertilization effect substantially offsets losses dut to climate change alone. In one scenario, the combination of carbon dioxide fertilization and adaptation led to net global welfare increases. Policy implications of the potential changes and uncertainty in the magnitude, direction , and timing of change are discussed.Funded by the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change at M.I.T

Prostate Cancer Detection with mpMRI According to PI-RADS v2 Compared with Systematic MRI/TRUS-Fusion Biopsy: A Prospective Study

BACKGROUND: mpMRI assesses prostate lesions through their PI-RADS score. The primary goal of this prospective study was to demonstrate the correlation of PI-RADS v2 score and the volume of a lesion with the presence and clinical significance of prostate cancer (PCa). The secondary goal was to determine the extent of additionally PCa in inconspicuous areas. METHODS: All 157 patients underwent a perineal MRI/TRUS-fusion prostate biopsy. Targeted biopsies as well as a systematic biopsy were performed. The presence of PCa in the probes was specified by the ISUP grading system. RESULTS: In total, 258 lesions were biopsied. Of the PI-RADS 3 lesions, 24% were neoplastic. This was also true for 36.9% of the PI-RADS 4 lesions and for 59.5% of the PI-RADS 5 lesions. Correlation between ISUP grades and lesion volume was significant (p < 0.01). In the non-suspicious mpMRI areas carcinoma was revealed in 19.7% of the patients. CONCLUSIONS: The study shows that the PI-RADS v2 score and the lesion volume correlate with the presence and clinical significance of PCa. However, there are two major points to consider: First, there is a high number of false positive findings. Second, inconspicuous mpMRI areas revealed PCa

Characteristics and outcomes among US patients hospitalized for ischemic stroke before vs during the COVID-19 pandemic

Importance: After the emergence of COVID-19, studies reported a decrease in hospitalizations of patients with ischemic stroke (IS), but there are little to no data regarding hospitalizations for the remainder of 2020, including outcome data from a large cohort of patients with IS and comorbid COVID-19. Objective: To assess hospital discharge rates, demographic factors, and outcomes of hospitalization associated with the COVID-19 pandemic among US patients with IS before vs during the COVID-19 pandemic. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study used data from the Vizient Clinical Data Base on 324 013 patients with IS at 478 nonfederal hospitals in 43 US states between January 1, 2019, and December 31, 2020. Patients were eligible if they were admitted to the hospital on a nonelective basis and were not receiving hospice care at the time of admission. A total of 41 166 discharged between January and March 2020 were excluded from the analysis because they had unreliable data on COVID-19 status, leaving 282 847 patients for the study. Exposure: Ischemic stroke and laboratory-confirmed COVID-19. Main Outcomes and Measures: Monthly counts of discharges among patients with IS in 2020. Demographic characteristics and outcomes, including in-hospital death, among patients with IS who were discharged in 2019 (control group) were compared with those of patients with IS with or without comorbid COVID-19 (COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 groups, respectively) who were discharged between April and December 2020. Results: Of the 282 847 patients included in the study, 165 912 (50.7% male; 63.4% White; 26.3% aged ≥80 years) were allocated to the control group; 111 418 of 116 935 patients (95.3%; 51.9% male; 62.8% White; 24.6% aged ≥80 years) were allocated to the non-COVID-19 group and 5517 of 116 935 patients (4.7%; 58.0% male; 42.5% White; 21.3% aged ≥80 years) to the COVID-19 group. A mean (SD) of 13 846 (553) discharges per month among patients with IS was reported in 2019. Discharges began decreasing in February 2020, reaching a low of 10 846 patients in April 2020 before returning to a prepandemic level of 13 639 patients by July 2020. A mean (SD) of 13 492 (554) discharges per month was recorded for the remainder of 2020. Black and Hispanic patients accounted for 21.4% and 7.0% of IS discharges in 2019, respectively, but accounted for 27.5% and 16.0% of those discharged with IS and comorbid COVID-19 in 2020. Compared with patients in the control and non-COVID-19 groups, those in the COVID-19 group were less likely to smoke (16.0% vs 17.2% vs 6.4%, respectively) and to have hypertension (73.0% vs 73.1% vs 68.2%) or dyslipidemia (61.2% vs 63.2% vs 56.6%) but were more likely to have diabetes (39.8% vs 40.5% vs 53.0%), obesity (16.2% vs 18.4% vs 24.5%), acute coronary syndrome (8.0% vs 9.2% vs 15.8%), or pulmonary embolus (1.9% vs 2.4% vs 6.8%) and to require intubation (11.3% vs 12.3% vs 37.6%). After adjusting for baseline factors, patients with IS and COVID-19 were more likely to die in the hospital than were patients with IS in 2019 (adjusted odds ratio, 5.17; 95% CI, 4.83-5.53; National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale adjusted odds ratio, 3.57; 95% CI, 3.15-4.05). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, after the emergence of COVID-19, hospital discharges of patients with IS decreased in the US but returned to prepandemic levels by July 2020. Among patients with IS between April and December 2020, comorbid COVID-19 was relatively common, particularly among Black and Hispanic populations, and morbidity was high

Mantle 3He distribution and deep circulation in the Indian Ocean

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2004. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 109 (2004): C06012, doi:10.1029/2003JC002028.The World Ocean Circulation Experiment Indian Ocean helium isotope data are mapped and features of intermediate and deep circulation are inferred and discussed. The 3He added to the deep Indian Ocean originates from (1) a strong source on the mid-ocean ridge at about 19°S/65°E, (2) a source located in the Gulf of Aden in the northwestern Indian Ocean, (3) sources located in the convergent margins in the northeastern Indian Ocean, and (4) water imported from the Indonesian Seas. The main circulation features inferred from the 3He distribution include (1) deep (2000–3000 m) eastward flow in the central Indian Ocean, which overflows into the West Australian Basin through saddles in the Ninetyeast Ridge, (2) a deep (2000–3000 m) southwestward flow in the western Indian Ocean, and (3) influx of Banda Sea Intermediate Waters associated with the deep core (1000–1500 m) of the through flow from the Pacific Ocean. The large-scale 3He distribution is consonant with the known pathways of deep and bottom water circulation in the Indian Ocean.National Science Foundation support is acknowledged for the UM part of the work through grants OCE-9820131 and OCE-998150. Support for the LDEO portion of the work was obtained from the National Science Foundation through awards OCE 94-13162 and OCE 98-20130

Involvement of Egr-1/RelA Synergy in Distinguishing T Cell Activation from Tumor Necrosis Factor-α–induced NF-κB1 Transcription

NF-κB is an important transcription factor required for T cell proliferation and other immunological functions. The NF-κB1 gene encodes a 105-kD protein that is the precursor of the p50 component of NF-κB. Previously, we and others have demonstrated that NF-κB regulates the NF-κB1 gene. In this manuscript we have investigated the molecular mechanisms by which T cell lines stimulated with phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate (PMA) and phytohemagglutin (PHA) display significantly higher levels of NF-κB1 encoding transcripts than cells stimulated with tumor necrosis factor-α, despite the fact that both stimuli activate NF-κB. Characterization of the NF-κB1 promoter identified an Egr-1 site which was found to be essential for both the PMA/ PHA-mediated induction as well as the synergistic activation observed after the expression of the RelA subunit of NF-κB and Egr-1. Furthermore, Egr-1 induction was required for endogenous NF-κB1 gene expression, since PMA/PHA-stimulated T cell lines expressing antisense Egr-1 RNA were inhibited in their ability to upregulate NF-κB1 transcription. Our studies indicate that transcriptional synergy mediated by activation of both Egr-1 and NF-κB may have important ramifications in T cell development by upregulating NF-κB1 gene expression