Zehn Jahre Euro: Neues zu den Handelseffekten der Gemeinschaftswährung

Der Euro feiert demnächst Geburtstag. Seit zehn Jahren bestimmt die europäische Gemeinschaftswährung den wirtschaftlichen Alltag in nunmehr 15 EU-Staaten. Politisch ist sie eine Erfolgsgeschichte, die ökonomischen Implikationen werden jedoch teils kontrovers diskutiert. Eine Debatte entzündet sich an der Frage der Handelseffekte für den Euro-Raum. Aktuelle Forschungsergebnisse lassen auf eine den Handel stimulierende Wirkung des Euro für die Mitgliedsländer schließen. Während ein Effekt zwischen fünf v.H. und zehn v.H. als Konsensus gilt, deuten methodische Neuerungen in der empirischen Messung auf einen größeren Effekt hin

Der Fall der Arbeitseinkommensquote: Homogene Ursachen im Ländervergleich?

Die funktionale Einkommensverteilung ist eines der klassischen Themen der Makroökonomik. Sie beschreibt die Aufteilung des Volkseinkommens auf die in der Produktion eingesetzten Faktoren - in der Regel Arbeit und Kapital. Der Anteil des Faktors Arbeit wird üblicherweise durch die sogenannte Arbeitseinkommensquote (AEQ) beschrieben. Diese ist über die letzten 25 Jahre in nahezu allen großen Industriestaaten gefallen. Auf Grund dieser Abwärtsbewegung ist die Arbeitseinkommensquote aktuell verstärkt Thema in politischen Debatten, aber auch akademischen Studien. Es deutet sich ein Comeback der funktionalen Einkommensverteilung als wichtige ökonomische Größe sowie als Maß für die Ver - teilungsgerechtigkeit an

Offshoring and relative labor demand from a task perspective

This paper provides new evidence on how offshoring shifts relative labor demand for tasks at the industry level. A novel theoretical mechanism, based on sorting of heterogeneous workers into occupations with task dependent offshoring cost, guides estimation. Cost shares of tasks are linked to offshoring in a panel estimation using German data for 1998-2007. It is shown that offshoring shifts home country relative labor demand towards more complex tasks with higher relocation cost. This demand shift holds when controlling for an industry’s skill composition and is particularly strong for offshoring to non-OECD countries

Readdressing the trade effect of the Euro: Allowing for currency misalignment

We know that euro-area member countries have absorbed asymmetric shocks in ways that are inconsistent with a common nominal anchor. Based on a reformulation of the gravity model that allows for such bilateral misalignment, we disentangle the conventional trade cost channel and trade effects deriving from 'implicit currency misalignment'. Econometric estimation reveals that the currency misalignment channel exerts a significant trade effect on bilateral exports. We retrieve country specific estimates of the euro effect on trade based on misalignment. This reveals asymmetric trade effects and heterogeneous outlooks across countries for the costs and benefits from adopting the euro. --Euro,gravity model,exchange rates,purchasing power parity,trade imbalances

Offshoring and labor income risk

This paper analyzes the impact increased offshoring has on labor income risk. It is therefore distinct from a large number of studies explaining the level effects of globalization on the labor market in that it takes a look at effects on second moments, i.e. the variance of incomes. It provides an assessment that directly connects labor income risk and offshoring trends at the sector level. Importantly, we distinguish between transitory and permanent shocks to individual income. Permanent income risk is defined as variance of shocks to income that do not fade out over time and are assumed to be not self-insurable. It thus has a particular relevance for individual welfare. Our findings suggest that offshoring tends to lower permanent income risk. This effect is particularly strong for offshoring to low-income destinations. Hence, there could be potential welfare gains when domestic firms increasingly offshore production to foreign countries

The labour share of income : heterogeneous causes for parallel movements?

The aim of this paper is to take a structured approach at estimating the coefficients of factors explaining movements of the labour share across countries. In particular, we focus on proper dynamic specification and test the validity of the homogeneity assumption of slope coefficients frequently implied in previous studies. We employ fixed effect estimators as well as pooled mean group and mean group estimators, the latter in a dynamic heterogeneous panel framework. We find support for a dynamic estimation setup and derive statements regarding the homogeneity assumption with respect to the three most prominent explanatory variables in the literature: the capital-output ratio, total factor productivity and trade openness. In addition, we take account of different institutional arrangements across countries

Unemployment and labor reallocation in Europe

We ask whether sectoral shocks and the subsequent labor reallocation are responsible for unemployment within selected European economies. Our measure of sectoral labor reallocation is adjusted for aggregate influences and the remaining variation is linked to unemployment in country specific dynamic models. For Spain, the ADL-model estimation reveals a significant impact of sectoral reallocation on unemployment that goes beyond usual business cycle patterns. In Italy, there is weaker yet detectable evidence for this mechanism. In Ireland, Portugal and France, no significant influence of sector level shocks on unemployment is found. The results emphasize the potential structural supply side policies have for reducing unemployment in Spain

Trade and technology: new evidence on the productivity sorting of firms

Using a unique German firm-level data set, we provide empirical evidence for a productivity sorting along two dimensions: international activity and technology choice. We consider domestic and exporting firms and measure technology choice by firms’ actual use of advanced information technology (IT). For manufacturing firms, the observed sorting pattern is consistent with recent theories of heterogeneous firms and technology choice: Only the relatively more productive ones among internationally active firms are also highly technology intensive. For service sector firms we find similar evidence, yet the results seem to depend on the trade cost of certain services. In general, recent theoretical advances regarding trade and technology adoption thus seem to better fit the manufacturing sector

Readdressing the trade effect of the Euro : allowing for currency misalignment

We know that euro-area member countries have absorbed asymmetric shocks in ways that are inconsistent with a common nominal anchor. Based on a reformulation of the gravity model that allows for such bilateral misalignment, we disentangle the conventional trade cost channel and trade effects deriving from “implicit currency misalignment”. Econometric estimation reveals that the currency misalignment channel exerts a significant trade effect on bilateral exports. We retrieve country specific estimates of the euro effect on trade based on misalignment. This reveals asymmetric trade effects and heterogeneous outlooks across countries for the costs and benefits from adopting the euro

Heterogeneous Labor Market Adjustments to Offshoring in European Regions

Offshoring is often found to be associated with an increase of wage inequality between low- and high-skilled. This is interpreted as a relative decrease of low-skilled labor demand. However, the effect of offshoring on relative labor demand is ambiguous, since low-skilled workers may benefit from productivity effects of offshoring. Moreover, whether offshoring affects wages or (un-)employment depends on the flexibility of the labor market. The labor market responses to offshoring could thus be very heterogeneous across regional labor markets. We estimate the effects of offshoring to Eastern Europe and China on labor markets in Western European regions and find that (1) offshoring has led to a decrease of low-skilled wages. (2) In low-patent regions the effects are more pronounced and positive effects on unemployment emerge. This indicates that productivity effects could play a role in compensating the labor market effects of offshoring. (3) There is some evidence that the labor market effects depend on the types of enterprise functions which are offshored. (4) The effects on unemployment are weaker in regions which spend more money on active labor market policy