Economic Reforms in the Sovereign States of the Former Soviet Union

macroeconomics, former Soviet Union, economic reforms

HIV dynamics and natural history studies: Joint modeling with doubly interval-censored event time and infrequent longitudinal data

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) coinfection has become one of the most challenging clinical situations to manage in HIV-infected patients. Recently the effect of HCV coinfection on HIV dynamics following initiation of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) has drawn considerable attention. Post-HAART HIV dynamics are commonly studied in short-term clinical trials with frequent data collection design. For example, the elimination process of plasma virus during treatment is closely monitored with daily assessments in viral dynamics studies of AIDS clinical trials. In this article instead we use infrequent cohort data from long-term natural history studies and develop a model for characterizing post-HAART HIV dynamics and their associations with HCV coinfection. Specifically, we propose a joint model for doubly interval-censored data for the time between HAART initiation and viral suppression, and the longitudinal CD4 count measurements relative to the viral suppression. Inference is accomplished using a fully Bayesian approach. Doubly interval-censored data are modeled semiparametrically by Dirichlet process priors and Bayesian penalized splines are used for modeling population-level and individual-level mean CD4 count profiles. We use the proposed methods and data from the HIV Epidemiology Research Study (HERS) to investigate the effect of HCV coinfection on the response to HAART.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS391 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

SOLID WASTE DISPOSAL IN RURAL AREAS: ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS

Community/Rural/Urban Development,

Precision of Hubble constant derived using black hole binary absolute distances and statistical redshift information

Measured gravitational waveforms from black hole binary inspiral events directly determine absolute luminosity distances. To use these data for cosmology, it is necessary to independently obtain redshifts for the events, which may be difficult for those without electromagnetic counterparts. Here it is demonstrated that certainly in principle, and possibly in practice, clustering of galaxies allows extraction of the redshift information from a sample statistically for the purpose of estimating mean cosmological parameters, without identification of host galaxies for individual events. We extract mock galaxy samples from the 6th Data Release of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey resembling those that would be associated with inspiral events of stellar mass black holes falling into massive black holes at redshift z ~ 0.1 to 0.5. A simple statistical procedure is described to estimate a likelihood function for the Hubble constant H_0: each galaxy in a LISA error volume contributes linearly to the log likelihood for the source redshift, and the log likelihood for each source contributes linearly to that of H_0. This procedure is shown to provide an accurate and unbiased estimator of H_0. It is estimated that a precision better than one percent in H_0 may be possible if the rate of such events is sufficiently high, on the order of 20 to z = 0.5.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev. D; new references adde

The bank deposit and wholesale guarantees of 12 October 2008: An appraisal

The Australian Government's guarantee of funds lodged with deposit-taking entities in Australia, and of security issues by Australian banks, has fostered support for smaller and less well-placed financial entities compared to the four major Australian banks. In applying in these settings there is a prospect of moral hazard in the benefited entities. With respect to the issue guarantee, there are grounds for expecting the prudential authorities to take steps to ensure that the funding support is not dissipated in fostering more risky asset portfolios

The Full Re-Ionization of Helium

Observations of resolved HeII Lyman alpha absorption in spectra of two QSO's suggest that the epoch of helium ionization occurred at z~3. Proximity zones in the spectra of the quasars (z=3.18, 3.285) at 304 A resemble Stromgren spheres, suggesting that the intergalactic medium is only singly ionized in helium. We present models of the proximity effect which include the full physics of the ionization, heating and cooling and an accurately simulated inhomogeneous gas distribution. In these models the underdense intergalactic medium is heated to at least 10,000-20,000 K after cooling to as low as a few 1000 K due to cosmological expansion, with higher temperatures achieved farther away from the quasar due to absorption-hardened ionizing spectra. The quasars turn on for a few times 10^7 years with a fairly steady flux output at 228 A comparable to the 304 A flux output directly observed with HST. The recoveries in the spectra occur naturally due to voids in the IGM and may provide a fairly model-independent probe of the baryon density.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, to appear in the proceedings of "After the Dark Ages: When Galaxies were Young (the Universe at 2<z<5)", 9th Annual October Astrophysics Conference in Marylan