Dysfunctional finance : positive shocks and negative outcomes

This paper shows how badly a market economy may respond to a positive productivity shock in an environment with asymmetric information about project quality: some, all, or even more than all the benefits from the increase in productivity may be dissipated. In the model, based on Bernanke and Gertler (1990), entrepreneurs with a low default probability are charged the same interest rate as entrepreneurs with a high default probability. The implicit subsidy from good types to bad means that the marginal entrant will have a negative-value project. An example is presented in which, after a positive productivity shock, the presence of enough bad type's forces the interest rate so high that it drives all entrepreneurs out of the market. This happens in an industry in which there are good projects that are productive. The problem is that they are contaminated in the capital market by bad projects because of the banks inability to distinguish good projects from bad. One possible explanation for the lack of development in some countries is that screening institutions are sufficiently weak that impersonal financial markets cannot function. If industrialization entails learning spillovers concentrated within national boundaries, and if initially informational asymmetries are sufficiently great that the capital market does not emerge, then neither industrialization nor the learning that it would foster will occur.Debt Markets,Access to Finance,Economic Theory&Research,Banks&Banking Reform,Markets and Market Access

Joseph E. Stiglitz

Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2001 Nobel Laureate in Economics, helped create the theory of markets with asymmetric information and was one of the founders of modern development economics. He played a leading role in an intellectual revolution that changed the characterization of a market economy. In the new paradigm, the price system only imperfectly solves the information problem of scarcity because of the many other information problems that arise in the economy: the selection over hidden characteristics, the provision of incentives for hidden behaviors and for innovation, and the coordination of choices over institutions.Labor Policies,Economic Theory&Research,,Debt Markets,Financial Intermediation

Tastes, castes, and culture: The influence of society on preferences

Economists have traditionally treated preferences as exogenously given. Preferences are assumed to be influenced by neither beliefs nor the constraints people face. As a consequence, changes in behaviour are explained exclusively in terms of changes in the set of feasible alternatives. Here we argue that the opposition to explaining behavioural changes in terms of preference changes is illfounded, that the psychological properties of preferences render them susceptible to direct social influences, and that the impact of “society” on preferences is likely to have important economic and social consequences.Endogenous preferences, culture, caste, frames, anchors, elicitation devices

Tastes, Castes, and Culture: The Influence of Society on Preferences

Economists have traditionally treated preferences as exogenously given. Preferences are assumed to be influenced by neither beliefs nor the constraints people face. As a consequence, changes in behaviour are explained exclusively in terms of changes in the set of feasible alternatives. Here we argue that the opposition to explaining behavioural changes in terms of preference changes is ill-founded, that the psychological properties of preferences render them susceptible to direct social influences, and that the impact of "society" on preferences is likely to have important economic and social consequences.endogenous preferences, culture, caste, frames, anchors, elicitation devices

Home Ownership, Local Interactions and Segregation

There is substantial evidence that home-ownership changes behavior and creates local spillovers. But theoretical research on the decision to own or rent a home has ignored such spillovers and does not confront the issue of the determination of the quality and composition of neighborhoods. This paper constructs a simple theory that can explain the quality and composition of a community as the outcome of the decisions of all households in a metropolitan area, taking into account the general equilibrium effects that are inherent in the problem. We study a model with spillovers, in which the appreciation of the price of a home depends on the investments that other community residents make in their homes. We assume that capital markets are imperfect, so that it is more costly for a low-income household to purchase a home than for a high-income household to do so. We obtain two main results. First, there may be multiple, Pareto-ranked equilibria in the fraction of homeowners in a community; hence, any housing policy analysis has to recognize the problem of co-ordination failure. Second, we establish condition under which market forces will lead home-owners and renters to live in separate communities. We show that even if the poor do not have different preferences for housing than the rich and even if they internalize externalities no less than the rich do, under plausible conditions rich and poor households may live in communities that exhibit very different social characteristics- -the rich in a community with high levels of home-ownership and high levels of civic engagement, and the poor in a community with low levels of both. The model provides a framework for studying the effects on community quality of changes in the distribution of income and changes in policy towards home-ownership.

Non-Leaky Buckets: Optimal Redistributive Taxation and Agency Costs

Economists have generally argued that income redistribution comes at a cost in aggregate incomes. We provide a counter-example in a model where private information gives rise to incentive constraints. In the model, a wage tax creates the usual distortion in labor-leisure choices, but the grants that it finances reduce a distortion in investment in human capital. We prove that simple redistributive policies can yield Pareto improvements and increase aggregate incomes. Where higher education is beyond the reach of the poor, the wage tax- transfer policy is under most circumstances more effective than targeted credit taxes or subsidies in increasing over-all efficiency.

Exiting a lawless state

An earlier paper showed that an economy could be trapped in an equilibrium state in which the absence of the rule of law led to asset-stripping, and the prevalence of asset-stripping led to the absence of a demand for the rule of law, highlighting a coordination failure. This paper looks more carefully at the dynamics of transition from a non-rule-of-law state. The paper identifies a commitment problem as the critical feature inhibiting the transition: the inability, under a rule of law, to forgive theft. This can lead to the perpetuation of the non-rule-of-law state, even when it might seem that the alternative is Pareto-improving.Public Sector Corruption&Anticorruption Measures,National Governance,Labor Policies,Gender and Law,Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress

The creation of the rule of law and the legitimacy of property rights : the political and economic consequences of a corrupt privatization

How does the lack of legitimacy of property rights affect the dynamics of the creation of the rule of law? The authors investigate the demand for the rule of law in post-communist economies after privatization under the assumption that theft is possible, that those who have"stolen"assets cannot be fully protected under a change in the legal regimetoward rule of law, and that the number of agents with control rights over assets is large. They show that a demand for broadly beneficial legal reform may not emerge because the expectation of weak legal institutions increases the expected relative return to stripping assets, and strippers may gain from a weak and corrupt state. The outcome can be inefficient even from the narrow perspective of the asset-strippers.Legal Products,Economic Theory&Research,Corruption&Anitcorruption Law,Public Sector Corruption&Anticorruption Measures,Governance Indicators

Equilibrium fictions : a cognitive approach to societal rigidity

This paper assesses the role of ideas in economic change, combining economic and historical analysis with insights from psychology, sociology and anthropology. Belief systems shape the system of categories ("pre-confirmatory bias") and perceptions (confirmatory bias), and are themselves constrained by fundamental values. The authors illustrate the model using the historical construction of racial categories. Given the post-Reformation fundamental belief that all men had rights, colonial powers after the 15th century constructed ideologies that the colonized groups they exploited were naturally inferior, and gave these beliefs precedence over other aspects of belief systems. Historical work finds that doctrines of race came into their own in the colonies that became the United States after, not before, slavery; that out of the"scandal of empire"in India emerged a"race theory that cast Britons and Indians in a relationship of absolute difference"; and that arguments used by the settlers in Australia to justify their policies toward the Aborigines entailed in effect the expulsion of the Aborigines from the human race. Racial ideology shaped categories and perceptions in ways that the authors show can give rise to equilibrium fictions. In the framework of this paper, technology, contacts with the outside world, and changes in power and wealth matter not just directly but because they can lead to changes in ideology.Cultural Policy,Race in Society,Educational Sciences,Cultural Heritage&Preservation,Ethics&Belief Systems

After the Big Bang? Obstacles to the emergence of the rule of law in post-communist societies

With the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union in 1989-91, many economic reformers supported"Big Bang"privatization-the rapid transfer of state-owned enterprises to private individuals. It was hoped that Big Bang privatization would create the conditions for a demand-led evolution of legal institutions. But there was no theory to explain how this process of institutional evolution, including a legal framework for the protection of investors, would occur and, in fact, it has not yet occurred in Russia, in other former Soviet Union countries, in the Czech Republic, and elsewhere. A central reason for that, according to many scholars, is the weakness of the political demand for the rule of law. To shed light on this puzzle, the authors consider a model where the conditions for the emergence of the rule of law might be interpreted as highly favorable. Individuals with control rights over privatized assets can collectively bring about the rule of law simply by voting for it. These individuals are concerned with the wealth they can obtain from the privatized assets, and have two alternative strategies: building value and stripping assets. Building value under the rule of law yields higher benefits to a majority than stripping assets under no rule of law. But uncertainty about when the rule of law will be established may lead some individuals to choose an economic strategy-stripping assets, including converting corporate assets to private use-that gives them an interest in postponing the establishment of the rule of law. And therefore in the succeeding period, the rule of law may again not be in place, and so again individuals may strip assets. If they do, some of them may again have an interest in postponing the establishment of the rule of law. And so a weak demand for the rule of law can persist. The contribution of the paper is to show that the view that once stripping has occurred, the strippers will say"enough"and by supporting the rule of law seek public protection of their gains, is flawed. By abstracting from the obvious problem that strippers who obtain great wealth can buy special favored treatment from the state, the model highlights two less obvious flaws in the optimistic view about the Big Bang: First, that the asset-strippers can remove the assets from exposure to further stealing, and in that case they do not care about public protection for their gains. And second, that the perceived justice of a system is important to gaining the cooperation of those involved in the process of producing the rule of law (judges, regulators, jurors, potential offenders). Accordingly, state protection of asset strippers may be infeasible, even under an ostensible rule of law. Knowing this, strippers will be less supportive of the rule of law. The model makes one further point: what is at issue is how fast the rule of law will emerge. The presumption of the Big Bang strategy was that the faster state property was turned over to private hands, the faster a true market economy, including the rule of law, would be established. The analysis shows that, even if eventually a rule of law is established, the Big Bang may put into play forces that delay the establishment of the rule of law. The tortoise once again may beat the hare! Finally, the authors analyze the impact of certain policies, such as the particular structure of privatization and monetary policy. Policies that enhance the returns to investment and wealth creation rather than assetstripping not only serve to strengthen the economy in the short run, but enhance political support for the rule of law and thus put it in a position for stronger long-term growth.Corruption&Anitcorruption Law,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Legal Products,Labor Policies,Legal Products,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Corruption&Anitcorruption Law,Judicial System Reform