A MapReduce Framework for Analysing Portfolios of Catastrophic Risk with Secondary Uncertainty

AbstractThe design and implementation of an extensible framework for performing exploratory analysis of complex property portfolios of catastrophe insurance treaties on the Map-Reduce model is presented in this paper. The framework implements Aggregate Risk Analysis, a Monte Carlo simulation technique, which is at the heart of the analytical pipeline of the modern quantitative insurance/reinsurance pipeline. A key feature of the framework is the support for layering advanced types of analysis, such as portfolio or program level aggregate risk analysis with secondary uncertainty (i.e. computing Probable Maximum Loss (PML) based on a distribution rather than mean values). Such in-depth analysis is not supported by production-based risk management systems since they are constrained by hard response time requirements placed on them. On the other hand, this paper reports preliminary experimental results to demonstrate that in-depth aggregate risk analysis can be realized using a framework based on the MapReduce model

Assessment of tumour size in PET/CT lung cancer studies: PET- and CT-based methods compared to pathology

BACKGROUND: Positron emission tomography (PET) may be useful for defining the gross tumour volume for radiation treatment planning and for response monitoring of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. The purpose of this study was to compare tumour sizes obtained from CT- and various more commonly available PET-based tumour delineation methods to pathology findings. METHODS: Retrospective non-respiratory gated whole body [(18)F]-fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose PET/CT studies from 19 NSCLC patients were used. Several (semi-)automatic PET-based tumour delineation methods and manual CT-based delineation were used to assess the maximum tumour diameter. RESULTS: 50%, adaptive 41% threshold-based and contrast-oriented delineation methods showed good agreement with pathology after removing two outliers (R(2)=0.82). An absolute SUV threshold of 2.5 also showed a good agreement with pathology after the removal of 5 outliers (R(2): 0.79), but showed a significant overestimation in the maximum diameter (19.8 mm, p<0.05). Adaptive 50%, relative threshold level and gradient-based methods did not show any outliers, provided only small, non-significant differences in maximum tumour diameter (<4.7 mm, p>0.10), and showed fair correlation (R(2)>0.62) with pathology. Although adaptive 70% threshold-based methods showed underestimation compared to pathology (36%), it provided the best precision (SD: 14%) together with good correlation (R(2)=0.81). Good correlation between CT delineation and pathology was observed (R(2)=0.77). However, CT delineation showed a significant overestimation compared with pathology (3.8 mm, p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: PET-based tumour delineation methods provided tumour sizes in agreement with pathology and may therefore be useful to define the (metabolically most) active part of the tumour for radiotherapy and response monitoring purposes

Bone formation rather than inflammation reflects Ankylosing Spondylitis activity on PET-CT: a pilot study

INTRODUCTION: Positron Emission Tomography - Computer Tomography (PET-CT) is an interesting imaging technique to visualize Ankylosing Spondylitis (AS) activity using specific PET tracers. Previous studies have shown that the PET tracers [(18)F]FDG and [(11)C](R)PK11195 can target inflammation (synovitis) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and may therefore be useful in AS. Another interesting tracer for AS is [(18)F]Fluoride, which targets bone formation. In a pilot setting, the potential of PET-CT in imaging AS activity was tested using different tracers, with Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) and conventional radiographs as reference. METHODS: In a stepwise approach different PET tracers were investigated. First, whole body [(18)F]FDG and [(11)C](R)PK11195 PET-CT scans were obtained of ten AS patients fulfilling the modified New York criteria. According to the BASDAI five of these patients had low and five had high disease activity. Secondly, an extra PET-CT scan using [(18)F]Fluoride was made of two additional AS patients with high disease activity. MRI scans of the total spine and sacroiliac joints were performed, and conventional radiographs of the total spine and sacroiliac joints were available for all patients. Scans and radiographs were visually scored by two observers blinded for clinical data. RESULTS: No increased [(18)F]FDG and [(11)C](R)PK11195 uptake was noticed on PET-CT scans of the first 10 patients. In contrast, MRI demonstrated a total of five bone edema lesions in three out of 10 patients. In the two additional AS patients scanned with [(18)F]Fluoride PET-CT, [(18)F]Fluoride depicted 17 regions with increased uptake in both vertebral column and sacroiliac joints. In contrast, [(18)F]FDG depicted only three lesions, with an uptake of five times lower compared to [(18)F]Fluoride, and again no [(11)C](R)PK11195 positive lesions were found. In these two patients, MRI detected nine lesions and six out of nine matched with the anatomical position of [(18)F]Fluoride uptake. Conventional radiographs showed structural bony changes in 11 out of 17 [(18)F]Fluoride PET positive lesions. CONCLUSIONS: Our PET-CT data suggest that AS activity is reflected by bone activity (formation) rather than inflammation. The results also show the potential value of PET-CT for imaging AS activity using the bone tracer [(18)F]Fluoride. In contrast to active RA, inflammation tracers [(18)F]FDG and [(11)C](R)PK11195 appeared to be less useful for AS imaging

Adaptive tail-length evolution in deer mice is associated with differential Hoxd13 expression in early development

Variation in the size and number of axial segments underlies much of the diversity in animal body plans. Here, we investigate the evolutionary, genetic, and developmental mechanisms driving tail-length differences between forest and prairie ecotypes of deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus). We first show that long-tailed forest mice perform better in an arboreal locomotion assay, consistent with tails being important for balance during climbing. The long tails of these forest mice consist of both longer and more caudal vertebrae than prairie mice. Using quantitative genetics, we identify six genomic regions that contribute to differences in total tail length, three of which associate with vertebra length and the other three with vertebra number. For all six loci, the forest allele increases tail length, consistent with the cumulative effect of natural selection. Two of the genomic regions associated with variation in vertebra number contain Hox gene clusters. Of those, we find an allele-specific decrease in Hoxd13 expression in the embryonic tail bud of long-tailed forest mice, consistent with its role in axial elongation. Additionally, we find that forest embryos have more presomitic mesoderm than prairie embryos, and that this correlates with an increase in the number of neuromesodermal progenitors (NMPs), which are modulated by Hox13 paralogs. Together, these results suggest a role for Hoxd13 in the development of natural variation in adaptive morphology on a microevolutionary timescale

Recurrent differentiated thyroid cancer: Towards personalized treatment based on evaluation of tumor characteristics with PET (THYROPET Study): Study protocol of a multicenter observational cohort study

Background: After initial treatment of differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) patients are followed with thyroglobulin (Tg) measurements to detect recurrences. In case of elevated levels of Tg and negative neck ultrasonography, patients are treated 'blindly' with Iodine-131 (131I). However, in up to 50% of patients, the post-therapy scan reveals no 131I-targeting of tumor lesions. Such patients derive no benefit from the blind therapy but are exposed to its toxicity. Alternatively, iodine-124 (124I) Positron Emission Tomography/Computed Tomography (PET/CT) has become available to visualize DTC lesions and without toxicity. In addition to this, 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (18F-FDG) PET/CT detects the recurrent DTC phenotype, which lost the capacity to accumulate iodine. Taken together, the combination of 124I and 18F-FDG PET/CT has potential to stratify patients for treatment with 131I.Methods/Design: In a multicenter prospective observational cohort study the hypothesis that the combination of 124I and 18F-FDG PET/CT can avoid futile 131I treatments in patients planned for 'blind' therapy with 131I, is tested.One hundred patients planned for 131I undergo both 124I and 18F-FDG PET/CT after rhTSH stimulation. Independent of the outcome of the scans, all patients will subsequently receive, after thyroid hormone withdrawal, the 131I therapy. The post 131I therapeutic scintigraphy is compared with the outcome of the 124I and 18F-FDG PET/CT in order to evaluate the diagnostic value of the combined PET modalities.This study primary aims to reduce the number of futile 131I therapies. Secondary aims are the nationwide introduction of 124I PET/CT by a quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC) program, to correlate imaging outcome with histopathological features, to compare 124I PET/CT after rhTSH and after withdrawal of thyroid hormone, and to compare 124I and 131I dosimetry.Discussion: This study aims to evaluate the potential value of the combination of 124I and 18F-FDG PET/CT in the prevention of futile 131I therapies in patients with biochemically suspected recurrence of DTC. To our best knowledge no studies addressed this in a prospective cohort of patients. This is of great clinical importance as a futile 131I is a costly treatment associated with morbidity and therefore should be restricted to those likely to benefit from this treatment.Trial registration: Clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT01641679