INFLATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH TRENDS: GLOBAL AND SOUTH AFRICAN PERSPECTIVES

This paper explores the global inflation and economic growth trends, with a special focus on South Africa, from the 1970s – the period marked by the crumbling of the Bretton Woods system and the ensuing stagflation – to 2022. Our exploration reveals that global inflation is driven mainly by advanced economies, and there are signs of a negative correlation between the levels of income and inflation rates. We observed a structural break in global inflation in 1995 when inflation substantially decreased and became more stable than before. Our analysis links this structural break and stability in inflation to the emergence of strict monetary policy regimes like inflation targeting. Emerging and developing economies experienced a substantial decrease in inflation after they adopted inflation-targeting policies, as compared to advanced economies. In contrast, AEs benefitted from a significant rise in their economic growth. For South Africa, the trends in inflation and economic growth displayed a different picture. Although negligibly, South Africa’s inflation rose three years after adopting inflation targeting. During the same period, the South Africa experienced rising economic growth. To better understand the relationship between inflation and economic growth, we suggest the use of extensive data and models to investigate the structural breaks experienced

Does Financial Development Lead to Poverty Reduction in China? Time Series Evidence

The impact of financial development on poverty reduction has received attention in the literature recently. While the connection between financial development and poverty may appear straight forward in theory, in empirics it may be much complicated. This study attempted at empirically assessing the causal links between financial development and poverty reduction in China for the period 1985–2014. The study used the Toda-Yamamoto causality test to avoid pretesting bias that has featured majority of the existing studies. The study utilized two standard proxies for financial development, namely: the domestic private credit by banks as percentage of GDP, and money supply (M2) as percentage of GDP; and a standard proxy for poverty reduction namely: the household final consumption expenditure per capita growth (annual percentage). The study found a bidirectional causal flow between financial development and poverty reduction, implying that the causal flow between these important variables is independent of the proxy for financial development. This means that financial sector reforms and poverty reduction programs are more of “win-win†strategies in the case of China. Therefore policymakers in China should continue to implement robust financial sector reforms and poverty reduction strategies

Finance And Poverty Reduction In China: An Empirical Investigation

In this paper, the causal relationship between financial development and poverty reduction is examined in China, using the newly developed ARDL-Bounds testing procedure. The paper uses two proxies of financial development against private per capita consumption - a proxy for poverty reduction to examine this linkage. The results of the study show that the causal relationship between financial development and poverty reduction is sensitive to the proxy used to measure the level of financial development.When the domestic credit to the private sector (DCP/GDP) is used as a proxy for financial development, a bidirectional causality is found to prevail between financial development and poverty reduction in the short run. However, when the broad money supply ratio (M2/GDP) is used as a proxy, a bidirectional causality between financial development and poverty reduction is found to prevail in the short run, but a unidirectional causal flow from poverty reduction to financial development is found to predominate in the long run. These results show that the poverty-reduction programmes, which have been ongoing in China for decades, are likely to lead to further development of the financial sector in the long run

The macroeconimic determinants of stock market development : experience from two Asian countries

This study examined the relationship between a set of macroeconomic variables and stock market development in Hong Kong and the Philippines for the periods of 1992Q4-2016Q3 and 2001Q4-2016Q4 respectively. In recent decades, the stock markets in Hong Kong and the Philippines have experienced remarkable growth. While the literature has produced diverse views on the relationship between each determinant and the stock market, there are no relevant studies on the determinants of stock market development on these two countries. Against this background, this study enriched the literature by investigating the macroeconomic determinants of stock market development in these two countries using the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach. The empirical results of this study revealed a number of interesting findings. In the case of Hong Kong, the results showed that banking sector development and economic growth exerted positive impacts, whereas the inflation rate and exchange rate exerted negative impacts on stock market development both in the long and short run. In addition, the results showed that trade openness had a positive long-run impact, but a negative short-run impact on stock market development. Therefore, policymakers should pursue policies that foster banking sector development, enhance economic growth and maintain trade openness in order to foster the development of the stock market. In addition, monetary authority should strive to maintain a low level of inflation rate and the value of the domestic currency so as to further promote stock market development. In the case of the Philippines, the study found that trade openness had a negative impact on the development of the stock market in the long run, whereas banking sector development, and the exchange rate had positive impacts in the short run. Based on these findings, policymakers should consider policies that promote the use of equity financing in the production of main exports, enhance banking sector development, and maintain the stability of the domestic currency in order to promote the development of the stock market.EconomicsD. Phil. (Economics

Determinants of Economic Growth in Hong Kong: The Role of Stock Market Development

We assessed the impact of stock market development on growth in Hong Kong for the period 1986Q2 to 2015Q4. By constructing a composite index of stock market development and controlling for the key determinants of growth, we found stock market development to promote growth both in the short and long run. We further constructed an alternative index of stock market development and found this conclusion to be robust. Our findings are broadly consistent with the growth experience of Hong Kong. Policies meant to promote stock market development may enhance growth in Hong Kong as well

Analysing the Sources of Growth in an Emerging Market Economy: The Thailand Experience

This paper investigates the sources of economic growth in Thailand during the period 1975 to 2014. The results show that, in the long run, human capital and inflation exert a positive and significant impact on output, while foreign direct investment and foreign aid have negative and significant impact on output. The results also show that, in the short run, physical capital, labour and human capital have a positive and significant impact on growth, while the initial level of human capital, government expenditure, the initial level of inflation, foreign direct investment and foreign aid have a negative and significant impact on growth. Based on these findings, we offer some policy implications

The Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Development: Evidence from Malaysia

This study examines the macroeconomic determinants of stock market development in Malaysia during the period 1981-2015. Specifically, it examines the impact of banking sector development, economic performance, inflation rate, foreign direct investment and trade openness on the development of Malaysian stock market. Currently, while theoretical and empirical literature presents diverse views on the relationship between each macroeconomic determinant and stock market development, no studies have been conducted with particular reference to the Malaysian stock market. Given the significant role the Malaysian stock market plays among the ASEAN 5, there is a need for more understanding of the impacts of macroeconomic factors on its development. This paper contributes to the existing literature by investigating the macroeconomic determinants of stock market development in Malaysia using the ARDL bounds testing procedure. The results find that economic performance and trade openness have positive long-run impacts, whereas banking sector development has a negative long-run impact on stock market development. In the short run, the results find that the previous period of banking sector development, and the current and previous periods of trade openness have positive impacts on stock market development, whereas inflation rate exerts a negative impact. These findings carry important policy implications

Determinants of Economic Growth in Hong Kong: The Role of Stock Market Development

We assessed the impact of stock market development on growth in Hong Kong for the period 1986Q2 to 2015Q4. By constructing a composite index of stock market development and controlling for the key determinants of growth, we found stock market development to promote growth both in the short and long run. We further constructed an alternative index of stock market development and found this conclusion to be robust. Our findings are broadly consistent with the growth experience of Hong Kong. Policies meant to promote stock market development may enhance growth in Hong Kong as well

A Comprehensive Overview of Small, Medium, and Micro Enterprise Development in South Africa

The small, medium, and mirco enterprise (SMME) sector is viewed as a catalyst for economic growth in the whole world due to its potential to substantially contribute towards employment creation and poverty reduction, among other things. In South Africa (SA), SMMEs have accounted for approximately 40% of gross domestic product and 47% of the workforce in the past few years. Despite the critical role of this sector in SA’s economic growth, literature on understanding its development and trends is scant. This study, therefore, provides a comprehensive analysis on the development of SMMEs in SA. We first conceptualize the term by comparing the definitions of SMMEs from various countries. We later trace the regulatory development of SMMEs during the period from 1940 to 2020. We provide an in-depth discussion on the performance of SMMEs during the period from 2008 to 2021 from different lenses such as provincial, sectoral, and demographic analyses. The results confirmed that, in terms of the number of firms, the sector has remained resilient over the reviewed period. We found that the sector contributes significantly towards economic growth and employment in SA, and this has increased over the years under review. Lastly, we identified several financial and non-financial challenges faced by SMMEs

Effects of Financial Inclusion of Small and medium Sized Enterprises on Financial Stability: Evidence from SSA countries

We examine the impact of financial inclusion of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) on financial stability. Results show that financial inclusion of SMEs negatively affects stability in SSA countries, and the negative link is even stronger as levels of financial stability increase across countries. Our findings are consistent with the theory of excessive credit expansion or extreme financial inclusion theory, suggesting that to safely promote SME financial inclusion and foster financial sector stability, efforts should be directed toward improving banking sector risk mitigation efforts, financial sector supervision and strengthening coordination among regional financial sector regulators