Building foresight capacity: toward a foresight competency model

This article introduces the Foresight Competency Model, which addresses the basic question of what one ought to be able to do as a professional futurist. It describes how other fields have used competency models to define what their professionals do, documents how the Association of Professional Futurists (APF) developed this model, explains the interrelated features of the model, and suggests ways that organizations can use the model to enhance the foresight capacity of their talent

Projective simulation for artificial intelligence

We propose a model of a learning agent whose interaction with the environment is governed by a simulation-based projection, which allows the agent to project itself into future situations before it takes real action. Projective simulation is based on a random walk through a network of clips, which are elementary patches of episodic memory. The network of clips changes dynamically, both due to new perceptual input and due to certain compositional principles of the simulation process. During simulation, the clips are screened for specific features which trigger factual action of the agent. The scheme is different from other, computational, notions of simulation, and it provides a new element in an embodied cognitive science approach to intelligent action and learning. Our model provides a natural route for generalization to quantum-mechanical operation and connects the fields of reinforcement learning and quantum computation.Comment: 22 pages, 18 figures. Close to published version, with footnotes retaine

O/IR Polarimetry for the 2010 Decade (GAN): Science at the Edge, Sharp Tools for All

Science opportunities and recommendations concerning optical/infrared polarimetry for the upcoming decade in the field of Galactic science. Community-based White Paper to Astro2010 in response to the call for such papers.Comment: White Paper to the Galactic Neighborhood (GAN) Science Frontiers Panel of the Astro2010 Decadal Surve

O/IR Polarimetry for the 2010 Decade (PSF): Science at the Edge, Sharp Tools for All

Science opportunities and recommendations concerning optical/infrared polarimetry for the upcoming decade in the fields of planetary systems and star formation. Community-based White Paper to Astro2010 in response to the call for such papers.Comment: White Paper to the Planetary Systems and Star Formation (PSF) Science Frontiers Panel of the Astro2010 Decadal Surve

Understanding Polarized Foreground from Dust: Towards Reliable Measurements of CMB Polarization

Science opportunities and recommendations concerning optical/infrared polarimetry for the upcoming decade in the field of cosmology. Community-based White Paper to Astro2010 in response to the call for such papers.Comment: White Paper to the Cosmology and Fundamental Physics (GCT) Science Frontiers Panel of the Astro2010 Decadal Surve

Multiple Facets of Biodiversity Drive the Diversity-Stability Relationship

A significant body of evidence has demonstrated that biodiversity stabilizes ecosystem functioning over time in grassland ecosystems. However, the relative importance of different facets of biodiversity underlying the diversity–stability relationship remains unclear. Here we used data from 39 biodiversity experiments and structural equation modeling to investigate the roles of species richness, phylogenetic diversity, and both the diversity and community-weighted mean of functional traits representing the ‘fast–slow’ leaf economics spectrum in driving the diversity–stability relationship. We found that high species richness and phylogenetic diversity stabilize biomass production via enhanced asynchrony. Contrary to our hypothesis, low phylogenetic diversity also enhances ecosystem stability directly, albeit weakly. While the diversity of fast–slow functional traits has a weak effect on ecosystem stability, communities dominated by slow species enhance ecosystem stability by increasing mean biomass production relative to the standard deviation of biomass over time. Our results demonstrate that biodiversity influences ecosystem stability via a variety of facets, thus highlighting a more multicausal relationship than has been previously acknowledged

The alterations of tonus and movements through the interplay between the cerebral hemispheres and the cerebellum

This paper deals with the experimental production of involuntary movenients and abnormal tonus in macaques ( Macacu mulatta ) and their alterations in these animals and in children with cerebral palsy and other cerebral lesions. The first major subdivision of the paper has three parts. The first part describes the effects of lesions in the macaque cerebral hemispheres, ranging from a small destructive lesion in area 4 to an essentially complete bicortectomy. The case histories of a few patients document some of the results. The second part reports the effects of lesions in the macaque cerebellum ranging from small vermal injuries to complete cerebellectomies. The third part is concerned with successive lesions in the cerebellum and cerebral hemispheres of macaques and with planned cerebellar lesions in a few children with grave hypertonicity and marked involuntary movements. This subdivision is illustrated with photographs of the monkeys and the children at various stages of the procedures, photographs of many monkey brains at postmortem, and some photomicrographs showing lesions. The second major subdivision has a discussion of the anatomic and the physiologic bases for the experimental results obtained and for the operations on the children. It correlates the material presented with data from the literature and is illustrated with photomicrographs of degenerated tracts and with diagrams. The paper stresses the balancing of cerebral hemisphere and cerebellar discharges in the regulation of tonus and in the stabilizing of movements. It discusses the possibility of producing more effective tonus by making carefully planned lesions in cerebellar areas of animals or of children with highly handicapping hypertonicity.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/49991/1/901270502_ftp.pd

International genome-wide meta-analysis identifies new primary biliary cirrhosis risk loci and targetable pathogenic pathways.

Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) is a classical autoimmune liver disease for which effective immunomodulatory therapy is lacking. Here we perform meta-analyses of discovery data sets from genome-wide association studies of European subjects (n=2,764 cases and 10,475 controls) followed by validation genotyping in an independent cohort (n=3,716 cases and 4,261 controls). We discover and validate six previously unknown risk loci for PBC (Pcombined<5 × 10(-8)) and used pathway analysis to identify JAK-STAT/IL12/IL27 signalling and cytokine-cytokine pathways, for which relevant therapies exist