Re-Examining Mortality Sources and Population Trends in a Declining Seabird: Using Bayesian Methods to Incorporate Existing Information and New Data

The population of flesh-footed shearwaters (Puffinus carneipes) breeding on Lord Howe Island was shown to be declining from the 1970’s to the early 2000’s. This was attributed to destruction of breeding habitat and fisheries mortality in the Australian Eastern Tuna and Billfish Fishery. Recent evidence suggests these impacts have ceased; presumably leading to population recovery. We used Bayesian statistical methods to combine data from the literature with more recent, but incomplete, field data to estimate population parameters and trends. This approach easily accounts for sources of variation and uncertainty while formally incorporating data and variation from different sources into the estimate. There is a 70% probability that the flesh-footed shearwater population on Lord Howe continued to decline during 2003–2009, and a number of possible reasons for this are suggested. During the breeding season, road-based mortality of adults on Lord Howe Island is likely to result in reduced adult survival and there is evidence that breeding success is negatively impacted by marine debris. Interactions with fisheries on flesh-footed shearwater winter grounds should be further investigated

The history of the elephant seal industry at Macquarie Island and an estimate of the pre-sealing numbers

A comprehensive list was compiled of all sealing ships that visited Macquarie Island (54°30'S, 158°57'E) between 1810 and 1919 and, where possible, their cargoes. Approximately 207 sealing visits were made to Macquarie Island in 109 years and an estimated 8380 tuns of elephant seal oil removed. The major sealing effort seems to have been in the first 20 years, between 1810 and 1829, when almost half of the voyages occurred and over half of the oil was collected. For the present study, a mathematical model was devised to examine the responses of the population to the estimated annual harvest of seals from 1810-29. Given the often incomplete nature of the sealing records, accurate estimates of the pre-sealing elephant seal population were impossible to obtain, but the model suggests that it may have been in the region of 93 000 to 110000 animals. The major impact of sealing activity was between 1820 and 1830, when the population was reduced by approximately 70%. Numbers are thought to have recovered to near pre-sealing levels by the 1900's, when the level of sealing was within the sustainable yield of the population. Key Words: elephant seal, sealing industry, sealing ships, Macquarie Islan

Five decades on: use of historical weaning size data reveals that a decrease in maternal foraging success underpins the long-term decline in population of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina)

The population of Southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) at Macquarie Island has declined since the 1960s, and is thought to be due to changing oceanic conditions leading to reductions in the foraging success of Macquarie Island breeding females. To test this hypothesis, we used a 55-year-old data set on weaning size of southern elephant seals to quantify a decrease in weaning size from a period of population stability in 1950s to its present state of on-going decline. Being capital breeders, the size of elephant seal pups at weaning is a direct consequence of maternal foraging success in the preceding year. During the 1940-1950s, the mean of female pups at weaning was similar between the Heard and Macquarie Island populations, while the snout-tail-length length of male weaners from Heard Island were longer than their conspecifics at Macquarie Island. Additionally, the snout-tail-length of pups at weaning decreased by 3cm between the 1950s and 1990s in the Macquarie Island population, concurrent with the observed population decline. Given the importance of weaning size in determining first-year survival and recruitment rates, the decline in the size at weaning suggests that the decline in the Macquarie Island population has, to some extent, been driven by reduced maternal foraging success, consequent declines in the size of pups at weaning, leading to reduced first-year survival rates and recruitment of breeding females into the population 3 to 4 years later

Studying seabird diet through genetic analysis of faeces: a case study on Macaroni Penguins (Eudyptes chrysolophus)

Determination of seabird diet usually relies on the analysis of stomach-content remains obtained through stomach flushing; this technique is both invasive and logistically difficult. We evaluate the usefulness of DNA-based faecal analysis in a dietary study on chick-rearing macaroni penguins (Eudyptes chrysolophus) at Heard Island. Conventional stomach-content data was also collected, allowing comparison of the approaches. Methodology/Principal Findings. Preyspecific PCR tests were used to detect dietary DNA in faecal samples and amplified prey DNA was cloned and sequenced. Of the 88 faecal samples collected, 39 contained detectable DNA from one or more of the prey groups targeted with PCR tests. Euphausiid DNA was most commonly detected in the early (guard) stage of chick-rearing, and detection of DNA from the myctophid fish Krefftichthys anderssoni and amphipods became more common in samples collected in the later (cre`che) stage. These trends followed those observed in the penguins’ stomach contents. In euphausiid-specific clone libraries the proportion of sequences from the two dominant euphausiid prey species (Euphausia vallentini and Thysanoessa macrura) changed over the sampling period; again, this reflected the trend in the stomach content data. Analysis of prey sequences in universal clone libraries revealed a higher diversity of fish prey than identified in the stomachs, but non-fish prey were not well represented. Conclusions/Significance. The present study is one of the first to examine the full breadth of a predator’s diet using DNA based faecal analysis. We discuss methodological difficulties encountered and suggest possible refinements. Overall, the ability of the DNA-based approach to detect temporal variation in the diet of macaroni penguins indicates this non-invasive method will be generally useful for monitoring population-level dietary trends in seabirds