Electricity Demand for Sri Lanka: A Time Series Analysis

This study estimates electricity demand functions for Sri Lanka using six econometric techniques. It shows that the preferred specifications differ somewhat and there is a wide range in the long-run price and income elasticities with the estimated long-run income elasticity ranging from 1.0 to 2.0 and the long run price elasticity from 0 to –0.06. There is also a wide range of estimates of the speed with which consumers would adjust to any disequilibrium, although the estimated impact income elasticities tended to be more in agreement ranging from 1.8 to 2.0. Furthermore, the estimated effect of the underlying energy demand trend varies between the different techniques; ranging from being positive to zero to predominantly negative. Despite these differences the forecasts generated from the six models up until 2025 do not differ significantly. Thus on one hand it is encouraging that the Sri Lanka electricity authorities can have some faith in econometrically estimated models used for forecasting. However, by the end of the forecast period in 2025 there is a variation of around 452MW in the base forecast peak demand; which, in relative terms for a small electricity generation system like Sri Lanka’s, represents a considerable difference.Developing Countries, Electricity Demand Estimation, Sri Lanka

Sri Lankan Electricity Supply Industry: A Critique of Proposed Reforms

In 2002 the Government of Sri Lanka proposed power sector policy guidelines for the first time in its history in order to facilitate the restructuring of the sector. This paper attempts to critically examine and appraise the Government’s proposals with suggestions for improvements. The methodology employed is to first examine the requirements of the Sri Lankan power sector by analysing the current problems that the power sector faces and to empirically estimate electricity demand to identify the future consumption and capacity expansion needs of the sector. Secondly, it is assessed to what extent the proposed reforms address the requirements of the sector identified above. Finally, alternative proposals are introduced in order to address the identified flaws in the current proposed reforms.Developing Countries, Electricity Supply Industry, Power Policy, Sri Lanka

Electricity demand for Sri Lanka:A time series analysis

This study estimates electricity demand functions for Sri Lanka using six econometric techniques. It shows that the preferred specifications differ somewhat and there is a wide range in the long-run price and income elasticities with the estimated long-run income elasticity ranging from 1.0 to 2.0 and the long run price elasticity from 0 to –0.06. There is also a wide range of estimates of the speed with which consumers would adjust to any disequilibrium, although the estimated impact income elasticities tended to be more in agreement ranging from 1.8 to 2.0. Furthermore, the estimated effect of the underlying energy demand trend varies between the different techniques; ranging from being positive to zero to predominantly negative. Despite these differences the forecasts generated from the six models up until 2025 do not differ significantly. Thus on one hand it is encouraging that the Sri Lanka electricity authorities can have some faith in econometrically estimated models used for forecasting. However, by the end of the forecast period in 2025 there is a variation of around 452MW in the base forecast peak demand; which, in relative terms for a small electricity generation system like Sri Lanka’s, represents a considerable difference