Region-wide synchrony and traveling waves of dengue across eight countries in Southeast Asia [plus Supporting information]

Dengue is a mosquito-transmitted virus infection that causes epidemics of febrile illness and hemorrhagic fever across the tropics and subtropics worldwide. Annual epidemics are commonly observed, but there is substantial spatiotemporal heterogeneity in intensity. A better understanding of this heterogeneity in dengue transmission could lead to improved epidemic prediction and disease control. Time series decomposition methods enable the isolation and study of temporal epidemic dynamics with a specific periodicity (e.g., annual cycles related to climatic drivers and multiannual cycles caused by dynamics in population immunity). We collected and analyzed up to 18 y of monthly dengue surveillance reports on a total of 3.5 million reported dengue cases from 273 provinces in eight countries in Southeast Asia, covering similar to 10(7) km(2). We detected strong patterns of synchronous dengue transmission across the entire region, most markedly during a period of high incidence in 1997-1998, which was followed by a period of extremely low incidence in 2001-2002. This synchrony in dengue incidence coincided with elevated temperatures throughout the region in 1997-1998 and the strongest El NiNo episode of the century. Multiannual dengue cycles (2-5 y) were highly coherent with the Oceanic NiNo Index, and synchrony of these cycles increased with temperature. We also detected localized traveling waves of multiannual dengue epidemic cycles in Thailand, Laos, and the Philippines that were dependent on temperature. This study reveals forcing mechanisms that drive synchronization of dengue epidemics on a continental scale across Southeast Asia

Infliximab in young paediatric IBD patients: it is all about the dosing

Infliximab (IFX) is administered intravenously using weight-based dosing (5 mg/kg) in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients. Our hypothesis is that especially young children need a more intensive treatment regimen than the current weight-based dose administration. We aimed to assess IFX pharmacokinetics (PK), based on existing therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) data in IBD patients < 10 years. TDM data were collected retrospectively in 14 centres. Children treated with IFX were included if IFX was started as IBD treatment at age < 10 years (young patients, YP) and PK data were available. Older IBD patients aged 10–18 years were used as controls (older patients, OP). Two hundred and fifteen paediatric inflammatory bowel disease (PIBD) patients were eligible for the study (110 < 10 year; 105 ≥ 10 years). Median age was 8.3 years (IQR 6.9–8.9) in YP compared with 14.3 years (IQR 12.8–15.6) in OP at the start of IFX. At the start of maintenance treatment, 72% of YP had trough levels below therapeutic range (< 5.4 μg/mL). After 1 year of scheduled IFX maintenance treatment, YP required a significantly higher dose per 8 weeks compared with OP (YP; 9.0 mg/kg (IQR 5.0–12.9) vs. OP; 5.5 mg/kg (IQR 5.0–9.3); p < 0.001). The chance to develop antibodies to infliximab was relatively lower in OP than YP (0.329 (95% CI − 1.2 to − 1.01); p < 0.001), while the overall duration of response to IFX was not significantly different (after 2 years 53% (n = 29) in YP vs. 58% (n = 45) in OP; p = 0.56). Conclusion: Intensification of the induction scheme is suggested for PIBD patients aged < 10 years.What is Known?What is New

Region-wide synchrony and traveling waves of dengue across eight countries in Southeast Asia &#91;plus Supporting information&#93;

Dengue is a mosquito-transmitted virus infection that causes epidemics of febrile illness and hemorrhagic fever across the tropics and subtropics worldwide. Annual epidemics are commonly observed, but there is substantial spatiotemporal heterogeneity in intensity. A better understanding of this heterogeneity in dengue transmission could lead to improved epidemic prediction and disease control. Time series decomposition methods enable the isolation and study of temporal epidemic dynamics with a specific periodicity (e.g., annual cycles related to climatic drivers and multiannual cycles caused by dynamics in population immunity). We collected and analyzed up to 18 y of monthly dengue surveillance reports on a total of 3.5 million reported dengue cases from 273 provinces in eight countries in Southeast Asia, covering similar to 10(7) km(2). We detected strong patterns of synchronous dengue transmission across the entire region, most markedly during a period of high incidence in 1997-1998, which was followed by a period of extremely low incidence in 2001-2002. This synchrony in dengue incidence coincided with elevated temperatures throughout the region in 1997-1998 and the strongest El NiNo episode of the century. Multiannual dengue cycles (2-5 y) were highly coherent with the Oceanic NiNo Index, and synchrony of these cycles increased with temperature. We also detected localized traveling waves of multiannual dengue epidemic cycles in Thailand, Laos, and the Philippines that were dependent on temperature. This study reveals forcing mechanisms that drive synchronization of dengue epidemics on a continental scale across Southeast Asia