International trade, technological shocks and spillovers in the labour market: A GVAR analysis of the US manufacturing sector

We empirically analyse the response of US manufacturing labour market variables to various shocks, notably to trade openness and technology. The econometric approach involves an application of the recently developed global VAR (GVAR) methodology of D¶ees, DiMauro, Pesaran, and Smith (2005) to 12 manufacturing industries over the period 1977-2003. This frame-work allows for an assessment of both shocks to weakly exogenous variables and intra-industry spillovers. In this vein, beyond a standard set of labour-market related variables (employment, real compensation, productivity and capital stock) and exogenous factors (a sector-specific measure of trade openness, along with common technology and oil price shocks), specific measures of manufacturing-wide variables are included for each sector. Generalised impulse responses indicate that increased trade openness negatively affects real compensation, has negligible employment effects and leads to higher labour productivity. These impacts, however, are relatively weaker those induced by technology shocks, with the latter positively and significantly affecting both real compensation and employment. There is also evidence of positive spill-overs across industries from sector-specific employment and productivity shocks. Impact elasticities suggest strong intra-sectoral linkages for employment and capital stock formation, contrasting with weak linkages for what concerns real compensation and productivity. JEL Classification: F16, J01, O33Global VAR (GVAR), impulse responses, labour market, Technological Change, Trade

The Impact of Globalisation on the Euro Area Macroeconomy

The general acceleration of trade globalisation over the last decade –or a growing interdependence of economies via trade, production and financial market linkages– has engendered several macroeconomic implications for the euro area. This paper focuses on assessing the key impacts on the euro area macroeconomy through an analysis of prospective channels, stylised facts and review of relevant empirical findings. It takes a long-term perspective over a period predominantly characterised by the rapid growth of globalisation, nothwithstanding the more recent interruption to the growth of global trade and capital flows that emerged towards the end of 2008 associated with the global financial turmoil and the associated downturn in global economic activity. Following an overview of the salient aspects of globalisation, which highlights the increasing openness of the euro area in terms of both trade and capital flows as well as the global reduction in transportation and information costs and the rise in the effective global supply of labour, the paper then assesses the external impacts of globalisation on the euro area, focussing on trade performance, export specialisation and import prices. It then investigates euro area domestic adjustment to globalisation with a supply-side focus, analysing separately impacts on productivity, labour markets and prices.Globalisation, trade performance, export specialisation, productivity, labour markets and prices.

Relative house price dynamics across euro area and US cities: convergence or divergence?

This paper examines the time varying dispersion in city house price levels across the four biggest euro area countries compared with those in the United States. Using available city-level data over the period 1987-2008, it tests for price convergence and analyses key factors explaining price differentials in a panel regression framework including per capita income, population and relative distances. Results indicate limited evidence of convergence in city-level house prices despite synchronised cycles in the national aggregates for most countries since the 1990s. There is an important role for income differentials in explaining city-level house price dispersion in Germany, France, and the US (but not in Italy or Spain once unobserved city factors are taken into account). At the same time, population differences across cities play a role, though this appears to be associated with amenities specific to a particular location. In general, there has been a lower dispersion of city-level house prices in the four largest euro area economies compared with the US in conjunction with a lower estimated income elasticity for house price differentials. The results, particularly for income, appear to be robust to restricting the analysis to large urban centres. JEL Classification: R21, R31, E31House price convergence, house price dispersion, house price drivers, panel data analysis

What drives returns to euro area housing? Evidence from a dynamic dividend-discount model

We apply a dynamic dividend-discount model to analyse unexpected housing returns in a panel of eight euro area countries which together comprise 90% of euro area GDP. The application of this model allows for a de-composition of house price movements into movements in rent (cash-flow) and expected return news components. The empirical application of the model involves the estimation of a panel vector autoregressive model (VAR) for four variables –excess return to housing, rents, the real interest rate and real disposable per capita income– using quarterly data over the period 1985-2007. This empirical investigation yields two main findings. First, the bulk of the variability of house price move-ments in the panel of countries analysed can be attributed to movements in the rental yield. Indeed, perturbations to rents appear to result in a one-to-one analogous movement in house prices over the long term once controlling for changes in expected returns. Second, evidence from the dynamic profile of shocks along with the negative co-movement between changing rental yield expectations and changing expected returns on housing assets would suggest that euro area house prices overreact to news. JEL Classification: R21, C33, G12cash flow news, house price, housing rental yield, panel VAR estimation, return decomposition

Forecasting and assessing Euro area house prices through the lens of key fundamentals

This paper presents a parsimonious model for forecasting and analysing euro area house prices and their interrelations with the macroeconomy. A quarterly vector error correction model is estimated over 1970-2009 using supply and demand forces central to the determination of euro area house prices in equilibrium and their dynamics: housing investment, real disposable income per capita and a mixed maturity measure of the real interest rate. In addition to house price forecasts using the resulting reduced form equation, a structural decomposition of the system is obtained employing a common trends framework of King, Plosser, Stock, and Watson (1991), which allows for the identification and economic interpretation of permanent and transitory shocks. The main results are twofold. First, the reduced form model tracks closely turning points in house prices when examining out-of-sample one- and two- step ahead forecasts. Moreover, the model suggests that euro area housing was overvalued in recent years, implying a period of stagnation to bring housing valuation back in line with its modelled fundamentals. Second, housing demand and financing cost shocks appear to have contributed strongly to the dynamism in euro area house prices over the sample period. While much of the increase appears to reflect a permanent component, a transitory component has also contributed from 2005 onwards. Specification tests suggest a robustness of the small model to alternative specifications, along with validity of the long-run restrictions. JEL Classification: R21, R31, C32forecasting, house price, Vector autoregression

Do house price developments spill over across euro area countries? Evidence from a Global VAR

This paper empirically assesses the prospects for house price spillovers in the euro area, where co-movement in house prices across countries may be particularly relevant given a general trend with monetary union toward increasing linkages in trade, financial markets, and general economic conditions. The application involves a Global VAR for three housing demand variables (real house prices, real per capita disposable income, and the real interest rate) on the basis of quarterly data for 10 euro area countries (Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland) over the period 1989-2007. The results suggest limited house price spillovers in the euro area, with evidence of some overshooting in the first 1-3 years after the shock, followed by a long run aggregate euro area impact of country-specific changes in real house prices related in part to the country's economic weight. This contrasts with the impacts of a shock to domestic long- term interest rates, with the latter causing a permanent shift in house prices after around 3 years. Underlying this aggregate development are rather heterogeneous house price spillovers at the country level, with a strong importance for economic weight in the euro area in governing their general magnitude, while geographic proximity appears to also play a role. JEL Classification: R21, R31, C32Global VAR (GVAR), house price, international linkages

Identifying endogenous fiscal policy rules for macroeconomic models

In this paper, we present a model-based method for identifying fiscal closure rules in stochastic macroeconomic models. The methodology is based on the stability analysis of the model at hand, with an endogenous derivation of a reaction on the part of the fiscal authority to state variables in the model. The rule achieves the dual aim of imposing solvency on the fiscal sector and generating a state-contingent dynamic adjustment in a framework consistent with the properties of the model. Up to now, fiscal rules in leading large-scale macroeconomic forecasting models have been imposed exogenously, and in this sense are not necessarily compatible with the formulation of other sectors of these models. An example of the derivation procedure, including some illustrative results, is provided using a small calibrated macro model.Macroeconomic models; Closure rules; Fiscal policy; Stability analysis

Identifying endogenous fiscal policy rules for macroeconomic models

In this paper, we present a model-based method for identifying fiscal closure rules in stochastic macroeconomic models. The methodology is based on the stability analysis of the model at hand, with an endogenous derivation of a reaction on the part of the fiscal authority to state variables in the model. The rule achieves the dual aim of imposing solvency on the fiscal sector and generating a state-contingent dynamic adjustment in a framework consistent with the properties of the model. Up to now, fiscal rules in leading large-scale macroeconomic forecasting models have been imposed exogenously, and in this sense are not necessarily compatible with the formulation of other sectors of these models. An example of the derivation procedure, including some illustrative results, is provided using a small calibrated macro model. JEL Classification: C5, E6, C62C62, Closure rules, E6, Fiscal Policy, JEL classification C5, macroeconomic models, Stability analysis

Debt reduction and automatic stabilisation

This paper presents an optimal fiscal policy response to address the basic trade-off between the automatic stabilisation properties of budgets and the long run fiscal positions. The framework is an overlapping generations model la Weil (1989), extended to account for stochastic endowments and borrowing constrained households. A benign government chooses over the optimal degree of responsiveness of net taxes to individual incomes, an optimal measure of long-run public debt, or both, in order to smooth households' consumption across states of nature. In the presence of a deficit constraint for the government, the results unambiguously point to the desire for lower debt levels than those currently prevailing in order to enable a more effective hedging of personal income uncertainty by means of more active fiscal stabilisers. Citizens in economies exhibiting more pronounced cycles will favour less automatic stabilisation combined with a more aggressive policy of debt reduction. JEL Classification: H31, H63, E63Automatic stabilisation, Borrowing constraints, Consumption, public debt

What drives returns to euro area housing? Evidence from a dynamic dividend-discount model

We apply a dynamic dividend-discount model to analyse unexpected housing returns in a panel of eight euro area countries which together comprise 90% of euro area GDP. The application of this model allows for a de-composition of house price movements into movements in rent (cash-flow) and expected return news components. The empirical application of the model involves the estimation of a panel vector autoregressive model (VAR) for four variables –excess return to housing, rents, the real interest rate and real disposable per capita income– using quarterly data over the period 1985-2007. This empirical investigation yields two main findings. First, the bulk of the variability of house price move-ments in the panel of countries analysed can be attributed to movements in the rental yield. Indeed, perturbations to rents appear to result in a one-to-one analogous movement in house prices over the long term once controlling for changes in expected returns. Second, evidence from the dynamic profile of shocks along with the negative co-movement between changing rental yield expectations and changing expected returns on housing assets would suggest that euro area house prices overreact to news