Characterization of non-Gaussian conductivities and porosities with hydraulic heads, solute concentrations, and water temperatures

Reliable characterization of hydraulic parameters is important for the understanding of groundwater flow and solute transport. The normal-score ensemble Kalman filter (NS-EnKF) has proven to be an effective inverse method for the characterization of non-Gaussian hydraulic conductivities by assimilating transient piezometric head data, or solute concentration data. Groundwater temperature, an easily captured state variable, has not drawn much attention as an additional state variable useful for the characterization of aquifer parameters. In this work, we jointly estimate non-Gaussian aquifer parameters (hydraulic conductivities and porosities) by assimilating three kinds of state variables (piezometric head, solute concentration, and groundwater temperature) using the NS-EnKF. A synthetic example including seven tests is designed, and used to evaluate the ability to characterize hydraulic conductivity and porosity in a non-Gaussian setting by assimilating different numbers and types of state variables. The results show that characterization of aquifer parameters can be improved by assimilating groundwater temperature data and that the main patters of the non-Gaussian reference fields can be retrieved with more accuracy and higher precision if multiple state variables are assimilated.Financial support to carry out this work was provided by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness through project CGL2014-59841-P. All data used in this analysis are available from the authors.Xu, T.; Gómez-Hernández, JJ. (2016). Characterization of non-Gaussian conductivities and porosities with hydraulic heads, solute concentrations, and water temperatures. Water Resources Research. 52(8):6111-6136. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR019011S61116136528Alcolea, A., Carrera, J., & Medina, A. (2006). Pilot points method incorporating prior information for solving the groundwater flow inverse problem. Advances in Water Resources, 29(11), 1678-1689. doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2005.12.009Anderson, M. P. (2005). Heat as a Ground Water Tracer. Ground Water, 43(6), 951-968. doi:10.1111/j.1745-6584.2005.00052.xBravo, H. R., Jiang, F., & Hunt, R. J. (2002). Using groundwater temperature data to constrain parameter estimation in a groundwater flow model of a wetland system. Water Resources Research, 38(8), 28-1-28-14. doi:10.1029/2000wr000172Capilla, J. E., & Llopis-Albert, C. (2009). Gradual conditioning of non-Gaussian transmissivity fields to flow and mass transport data: 1. Theory. Journal of Hydrology, 371(1-4), 66-74. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.03.015Chang, H., Zhang, D., & Lu, Z. (2010). History matching of facies distribution with the EnKF and level set parameterization. Journal of Computational Physics, 229(20), 8011-8030. doi:10.1016/j.jcp.2010.07.005Chen , Y. D. S. Oliver 2010Chen, Y., Oliver, D. S., & Zhang, D. (2009). Data assimilation for nonlinear problems by ensemble Kalman filter with reparameterization. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering, 66(1-2), 1-14. doi:10.1016/j.petrol.2008.12.002Doussan, C., Toma, A., Paris, B., Poitevin, G., Ledoux, E., & Detay, M. (1994). Coupled use of thermal and hydraulic head data to characterize river-groundwater exchanges. Journal of Hydrology, 153(1-4), 215-229. doi:10.1016/0022-1694(94)90192-9Dovera, L., & Della Rossa, E. (2010). Multimodal ensemble Kalman filtering using Gaussian mixture models. Computational Geosciences, 15(2), 307-323. doi:10.1007/s10596-010-9205-3Evensen, G. (2003). The Ensemble Kalman Filter: theoretical formulation and practical implementation. Ocean Dynamics, 53(4), 343-367. doi:10.1007/s10236-003-0036-9Franssen, H.-J. H., Gómez-Hernández, J., & Sahuquillo, A. (2003). Coupled inverse modelling of groundwater flow and mass transport and the worth of concentration data. Journal of Hydrology, 281(4), 281-295. doi:10.1016/s0022-1694(03)00191-4Fu, J., & Jaime Gómez-Hernández, J. (2009). Uncertainty assessment and data worth in groundwater flow and mass transport modeling using a blocking Markov chain Monte Carlo method. Journal of Hydrology, 364(3-4), 328-341. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.11.014Gómez-Hernández, J. J., & Journel, A. G. (1993). Joint Sequential Simulation of MultiGaussian Fields. Geostatistics Tróia ’92, 85-94. doi:10.1007/978-94-011-1739-5_8Gómez-Hernández, J. J., & Wen, X.-H. (1994). Probabilistic assessment of travel times in groundwater modeling. Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics, 8(1), 19-55. doi:10.1007/bf01581389G�mez-Hern�ndez, J. J., Franssen, H.-J. W. M. H., & Sahuquillo, A. (2003). Stochastic conditional inverse modeling of subsurface mass transport: A brief review and the self-calibrating method. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA), 17(5), 319-328. doi:10.1007/s00477-003-0153-5Gordon , N. D. Salmond A. Smith 1993 Novel approach to nonlinear/non-Gaussian Bayesian state estimation Proc. Inst. Electr. Eng. 140 107 113Gu, Y., & Oliver, D. S. (2005). The Ensemble Kalman Filter for Continuous Updating of Reservoir Simulation Models. Journal of Energy Resources Technology, 128(1), 79-87. doi:10.1115/1.2134735Gu, Y., & Oliver, D. S. (2007). An Iterative Ensemble Kalman Filter for Multiphase Fluid Flow Data Assimilation. SPE Journal, 12(04), 438-446. doi:10.2118/108438-paHu, L. Y. (2000). Mathematical Geology, 32(1), 87-108. doi:10.1023/a:1007506918588Kalman, R. E. (1960). A New Approach to Linear Filtering and Prediction Problems. Journal of Basic Engineering, 82(1), 35-45. doi:10.1115/1.3662552Kurtz, W., Hendricks Franssen, H.-J., Kaiser, H.-P., & Vereecken, H. (2014). Joint assimilation of piezometric heads and groundwater temperatures for improved modeling of river-aquifer interactions. Water Resources Research, 50(2), 1665-1688. doi:10.1002/2013wr014823Li, L., Zhou, H., Gómez-Hernández, J. J., & Hendricks Franssen, H.-J. (2012). Jointly mapping hydraulic conductivity and porosity by assimilating concentration data via ensemble Kalman filter. Journal of Hydrology, 428-429, 152-169. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.01.037Li, L., Zhou, H., Hendricks Franssen, H. J., & Gómez-Hernández, J. J. (2011). Groundwater flow inverse modeling in non-MultiGaussian media: performance assessment of the normal-score Ensemble Kalman Filter. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8(4), 6749-6788. doi:10.5194/hessd-8-6749-2011Liu , N. D. Oliver 2005 Critical evaluation of the ensemble Kalman filter on history matching of geologic facies SPE Reservoir Eval. Eng. 8 6 470 477Losa, S. N., Kivman, G. A., Schröter, J., & Wenzel, M. (2003). Sequential weak constraint parameter estimation in an ecosystem model. Journal of Marine Systems, 43(1-2), 31-49. doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2003.06.001Ma , R. C. Zheng 2010 Effects of density and viscosity in modeling heat as a groundwater tracer, Groundwater 48 3 380 389Ma, R., Zheng, C., Zachara, J. M., & Tonkin, M. (2012). Utility of bromide and heat tracers for aquifer characterization affected by highly transient flow conditions. Water Resources Research, 48(8). doi:10.1029/2011wr011281McDonald , M. A. Harbaugh 1988Oliver, D. S., Cunha, L. B., & Reynolds, A. C. (1997). Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for conditioning a permeability field to pressure data. Mathematical Geology, 29(1), 61-91. doi:10.1007/bf02769620RamaRao, B. S., LaVenue, A. M., De Marsily, G., & Marietta, M. G. (1995). Pilot Point Methodology for Automated Calibration of an Ensemble of conditionally Simulated Transmissivity Fields: 1. Theory and Computational Experiments. Water Resources Research, 31(3), 475-493. doi:10.1029/94wr02258Reich, S. (2011). A Gaussian-mixture ensemble transform filter. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 138(662), 222-233. doi:10.1002/qj.898Simon, E., & Bertino, L. (2009). Application of the Gaussian anamorphosis to assimilation in a 3-D coupled physical-ecosystem model of the North Atlantic with the EnKF: a twin experiment. Ocean Science, 5(4), 495-510. doi:10.5194/os-5-495-2009Strebelle, S. (2002). Mathematical Geology, 34(1), 1-21. doi:10.1023/a:1014009426274Sun, A. Y., Morris, A. P., & Mohanty, S. (2009). Sequential updating of multimodal hydrogeologic parameter fields using localization and clustering techniques. Water Resources Research, 45(7). doi:10.1029/2008wr007443Van Leeuwen, P. J. (2009). Particle Filtering in Geophysical Systems. Monthly Weather Review, 137(12), 4089-4114. doi:10.1175/2009mwr2835.1Wang, Y., Li, G., & Reynolds, A. C. (2010). Estimation of Depths of Fluid Contacts by History Matching Using Iterative Ensemble-Kalman Smoothers. SPE Journal, 15(02), 509-525. doi:10.2118/119056-paWen, X.-H., & Chen, W. H. (2006). Real-Time Reservoir Model Updating Using Ensemble Kalman Filter With Confirming Option. SPE Journal, 11(04), 431-442. doi:10.2118/92991-paWen, X.-H., Deutsch, C. V., & Cullick, A. S. (2002). Construction of geostatistical aquifer models integrating dynamic flow and tracer data using inverse technique. Journal of Hydrology, 255(1-4), 151-168. doi:10.1016/s0022-1694(01)00512-1Wen, X. H., Capilla, J. E., Deutsch, C. V., Gómez-Hernández, J. J., & Cullick, A. S. (1999). A program to create permeability fields that honor single-phase flow rate and pressure data. Computers & Geosciences, 25(3), 217-230. doi:10.1016/s0098-3004(98)00126-5Xu, T., & Gómez‐Hernández, J. J. (2015). Inverse sequential simulation: A new approach for the characterization of hydraulic conductivities demonstrated on a non‐ G aussian field. Water Resources Research, 51(4), 2227-2242. doi:10.1002/2014wr016320Xu, T., & Gómez-Hernández, J. J. (2015). Inverse sequential simulation: Performance and implementation details. Advances in Water Resources, 86, 311-326. doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2015.04.015Xu, T., Jaime Gómez-Hernández, J., Zhou, H., & Li, L. (2013). The power of transient piezometric head data in inverse modeling: An application of the localized normal-score EnKF with covariance inflation in a heterogenous bimodal hydraulic conductivity field. Advances in Water Resources, 54, 100-118. doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2013.01.006Zheng , C. 2010Zhou, H., Gómez-Hernández, J. J., Hendricks Franssen, H.-J., & Li, L. (2011). An approach to handling non-Gaussianity of parameters and state variables in ensemble Kalman filtering. Advances in Water Resources, 34(7), 844-864. doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2011.04.014Zhou, H., Li, L., Hendricks Franssen, H.-J., & Gómez-Hernández, J. J. (2011). Pattern Recognition in a Bimodal Aquifer Using the Normal-Score Ensemble Kalman Filter. Mathematical Geosciences, 44(2), 169-185. doi:10.1007/s11004-011-9372-3Zhou, H., Gómez-Hernández, J. J., & Li, L. (2014). Inverse methods in hydrogeology: Evolution and recent trends. Advances in Water Resources, 63, 22-37. doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2013.10.01

Update of the recommendations for the determination of biomarkers in colorectal carcinoma: National Consensus of the Spanish Society of Medical Oncology and the Spanish Society of Pathology

In this update of the consensus of the Spanish Society of Medical Oncology (Sociedad Española de Oncología Médica SEOM) and the Spanish Society of Pathology (Sociedad Española de Anatomía Patológica SEAP), advances in the analysis of biomarkers in advanced colorectal cancer (CRC) as well as susceptibility markers of hereditary CRC and molecular biomarkers of localized CRC are reviewed. Recently published information on the essential determination of KRAS, NRAS and BRAF mutations and the convenience of determining the amplifcation of human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2), the expression of proteins in the DNA repair pathway and the study of NTRK fusions are also evaluated. From the pathological point of view, the importance of analysing the tumour budding and poorly diferentiated clusters, and its prognostic value in CRC is reviewed, as well as the impact of molecular lymph node analysis on lymph node staging in CRC. The incorporation of pan-genomic technologies, such as next-generation sequencing (NGS) and liquid biopsy in the clinical management of patients with CRC is also outlined. All these aspects are developed in this guide, which, like the previous one, will remain open to any necessary revision in the future

Studying bioluminescence flashes with the ANTARES deep-sea neutrino telescope

We develop a novel technique to exploit the extensive data sets provided by underwater neutrino telescopes to gain information on bioluminescence in the deep sea. The passive nature of the telescopes gives us the unique opportunity to infer information on bioluminescent organisms without actively interfering with them. We propose a statistical method that allows us to reconstruct the light emission of individual organisms, as well as their location and movement. A mathematical model is built to describe the measurement process of underwater neutrino telescopes and the signal generation of the biological organisms. The Metric Gaussian Variational Inference algorithm is used to reconstruct the model parameters using photon counts recorded by photomultiplier tubes. We apply this method to synthetic data sets and data collected by the ANTARES neutrino telescope. The telescope is located 40 km off the French coast and fixed to the sea floor at a depth of 2475 m. The runs with synthetic data reveal that we can model the emitted bioluminescent flashes of the organisms. Furthermore, we find that the spatial resolution of the localization of light sources highly depends on the configuration of the telescope. Precise measurements of the efficiencies of the detectors and the attenuation length of the water are crucial to reconstruct the light emission. Finally, the application to ANTARES data reveals the first localizations of bioluminescent organisms using neutrino telescope data

Search for Gamma-Ray and Neutrino Coincidences Using HAWC and ANTARES Data

In the quest for high-energy neutrino sources, the Astrophysical Multimessenger Observatory Network has implemented a new search by combining data from the High Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) Observatory and the Astronomy with a Neutrino Telescope and Abyss environmental RESearch (ANTARES) neutrino telescope. Using the same analysis strategy as in a previous detector combination of HAWC and IceCube data, we perform a search for coincidences in HAWC and ANTARES events that are below the threshold for sending public alerts in each individual detector. Data were collected between 2015 July and 2020 February with a live time of 4.39 yr. Over this time period, three coincident events with an estimated false-alarm rate of <1 coincidence per year were found. This number is consistent with background expectations

Inverse sequential simulation: Performance and implementation details

For good groundwater flow and solute transport numerical modeling, it is important to characterize the formation properties. In this paper, we analyze the performance and important implementation details of a new approach for stochastic inverse modeling called inverse sequential simulation (iSS). This approach is capable of characterizing conductivity fields with heterogeneity patterns difficult to capture by standard multiGaussian-based inverse approaches. The method is based on the multivariate sequential simulation principle, but the covariances and cross-covariances used to compute the local conditional probability distributions are computed by simple co-kriging which are derived from an ensemble of conductivity and piezometric head fields, in a similar manner as the experimental covariances are computed in an ensemble Kalman filtering. A sensitivity analysis is performed on a synthetic aquifer regarding the number of members of the ensemble of realizations, the number of conditioning data, the number of piezometers at which piezometric heads are observed, and the number of nodes retained within the search neighborhood at the moment of computing the local conditional probabilities. The results show the importance of having a sufficiently large number of all of the mentioned parameters for the algorithm to characterize properly hydraulic conductivity fields with clear non-multiGaussian features. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.The first author acknowledgs the financial support from the China Scholarship Council (CSC [2010]3010). Financial support to carry out this work was also received from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness through Project CGL2014-59841-P. We thank the three reviewers for their thorough review and their insightful comments, which have helped to improve the final manuscript.Xu, T.; Gómez-Hernández, JJ. (2015). Inverse sequential simulation: Performance and implementation details. Advances in Water Resources. 86B:311-326. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2015.04.015S31132686

Primary bilateral adrenal B-cell lymphoma associated with EBV and JCV infection

Primary lymphoma of the adrenal gland is a rare and highly aggressive disease, with only a few reports in the literature. The pathogenesis is unknown, but detection of Epstein Barr virus (EBV) genome sequences and gene expression in some cases of primary adrenal lymphomas suggested the virus might be a causative agent of the malignancy. While investigating the presence of genome sequences of oncogenic viruses in a large series of adrenal tumors, both EBV and JC polyomavirus (JCV) DNA sequences were detected in a diffuse large primary bilateral B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma of the adrenal gland, which was diagnosed only at postmortem examination in a 77 year-old woman with incidentally discovered adrenal masses and primary adrenal insufficiency. The presence of both EBV and JCV genome sequences suggests the relevance of EBV and JCV coinfection in the pathogenesis of this rare form of B-cell lymphoma

Implementation and first results of the KM3NeT real-time core-collapse supernova neutrino search

The KM3NeT research infrastructure is unconstruction in the Mediterranean Sea. KM3NeT will study atmospheric and astrophysical neutrinos with two multi-purpose neutrino detectors, ARCA and ORCA, primarily aimed at GeV–PeV neutrinos. Thanks to the multi-photomultiplier tube design of the digital optical modules, KM3NeT is capable of detecting the neutrino burst from a Galactic or near-Galactic core-collapse supernova. This potential is already exploitable with the first detection units deployed in the sea. This paper describes the real-time implementation of the supernova neutrino search, operating on the two KM3NeT detectors since the first months of 2019. A quasi-online astronomy analysis is introduced to study the time profile of the detected neutrinos for especially significant events. The mechanism of generation and distribution of alerts, as well as the integration into the SNEWS and SNEWS 2.0 global alert systems, are described. The approach for the follow-up of external alerts with a search for a neutrino excess in the archival data is defined. Finally, an overview of the current detector capabilities and a report after the first two years of operation are given.Acknowledgements The authors acknowledge the financial support of the funding agencies: Agence Nationale de la Recherche (contract ANR-15-CE31-0020), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Commission Européenne (FEDER fund and Marie Curie Program), Institut Universitaire de France (IUF), LabEx UnivEarthS (ANR-10-LABX-0023 and ANR-18-IDEX-0001), Paris Île-de-France Region, France; Shota Rustaveli National Science Foundation of Georgia (SRNSFG, FR-18-1268), Georgia; Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG), Germany; The General Secretariat of Research and Technology (GSRT), Greece; Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN), Ministero dell’Università e della Ricerca (MIUR), PRIN 2017 program (Grant NAT-NET 2017W4HA7S) Italy; Ministry of Higher Education Scientific Research and Professional Training, ICTP through Grant AF-13, Morocco; Nederlandse organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (NWO), the Netherlands; The National Science Centre, Poland (2015/18/E/ST2/00758); National Authority for Scientific Research (ANCS), Romania; Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación, Investigación y Universidades (MCIU): Programa Estatal de Generación de Conocimiento (refs. PGC2018-096663-B-C41, -A-C42, -B-C43, -B-C44) (MCIU/FEDER), Generalitat Valenciana: Prometeo (PROMETEO/2020/019), Grisolía (ref. GRISOLIA/2018/119) and GenT (refs. CIDEGENT/2018/034, /2019/043, /2020/049) programs, Junta de Andalucía (ref. A-FQM-053-UGR18), La Caixa Foundation (ref. LCF/BQ/IN17/11620019), EU: MSC program (ref. 101025085), Spain

Withdrawal of infliximab therapy in ankylosing spondylitis in persistent clinical remission, results from the REMINEA study

Altres ajuts: This work is conducted under the umbrella of the Rheumatology Society of Catalonia and supported by Merck Research Laboratories.Background: Recent data suggest that anti-TNF doses can be reduced in ankylosing spondylitis (AS) patients. Some authors even propose withdrawing treatment in patients in clinical remission; however, at present there is no evidence to support this. Objective: To assess how long AS patients with persistent clinical remission remained free of flares after anti-TNF withdrawal and to evaluate the effects of treatment reintroduction. We also analyze the characteristics of patients who did not present clinical relapse. Methods: Multicenter, prospective, observational study of a cohort of patients with active AS who had received infliximab as a first anti-TNF treatment and who presented persistent remission (more than 6 months). We recorded at baseline and every 6-8 weeks over the 12-month period the age, gender, disease duration, peripheral arthritis or enthesitis, HLA-B27 status, BASDAI, CRP, ESR, BASFI, and three visual analogue scales, spine global pain, spinal night time pain, and patient's global assessment. Results: Thirty-six out of 107 patients (34%) presented persistent remission and were included in our study. After treatment withdrawal, 21 of these 36 patients (58%) presented clinical relapse during follow-up. Infliximab therapy was reintroduced and only 52% achieved clinical remission, as they had before the discontinuation of infliximab; in an additional 10%, reintroduction of infliximab was ineffective, obliging us to change the anti-TNF therapy. No clinical or biological factors were associated with the occurrence of relapse during the follow-up. Conclusions: Two thirds of patients in clinical remission presented clinical relapse shortly after infliximab withdrawal. Although the reintroduction of infliximab treatment was safe, half of the patients did not present the same clinical response that they had achieved prior to treatment withdrawal

The Antares Collaboration : Contributions to the 34th International Cosmic Ray Conference (ICRC 2015, The Hague)

The ANTARES detector, completed in 2008, is the largest neutrino telescope in the Northern hemisphere. Located at a depth of 2.5 km in the Mediterranean Sea, 40 km off the Toulon shore, its main goal is the search for astrophysical high energy neutrinos. In this paper we collect the 21 contributions of the ANTARES collaboration to the 34th International Cosmic Ray Conference (ICRC 2015). The scientific output is very rich and the contributions included in these proceedings cover the main physics results, ranging from steady point sources, diffuse searches, multi-messenger analyses to exotic physics