Financial Globalization, Economic Growth, and Macroeconomic Volatility

This paper evaluates the effects of financial globalization on growth and macroeconomic volatility, from 1984 to 2003, for a sample of 43 countries. Particular attention is given to those effects on the member countries of the Latin American Reserve Fund (FLAR): Bolivia, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela. The findings show that financial globalization spurs growth, when the countries’ income level is controlled; it does not increase macroeconomic volatility, as it is commonly stated, but does not reduce it either. Belonging to FLAR does not seem to make a difference in terms of growth and macroeconomic volatility; however, the findings of a strong negative effect on the volatility of consumption might be related to the fact that those countries have an insurer (FLAR) that has helped them to smooth consumption during periods of adverse external shocks.Financial globalization; Economic growth; Macroeconomic volatility; Crosssection regression; Panel data regressions. Classification JEL:F30; F41; F43; G15; G18; C51.

Are Capital Controls and Central Bank Intervention Effective?

Capital controls and intervention in the foreign exchange market are two controversial policy options that many countries have adopted in the past in order to influence the exchange rate and moderate capital flows. Colombia has a long record in the use of these policies with mixed results and often non negligible costs. The objective of this paper is to evaluate for the case of Colombia the effectiveness of capital controls and central bank intervention for depreciating the exchange rate, reducing its volatility, and moderating the exchange rate vulnerability to external shocks. The paper uses high frequency data from 1993 to 2010, and a GARCH model of the peso/US dollar exchange rate return. The main findings indicate that neither capital controls nor central bank intervention used separately were successful for depreciating the exchange rate. On the contrary, they augmented its volatility. Nonetheless, when both policies were used simultaneously, a statistical significant effect was obtained by which the interaction of capital control and intervention in the foreign exchange market were effective to produce a daily average depreciation of the exchange rate, without increasing its volatility. This result however should be taken with caution given the special economic circumstances that characterized 2008, when most of this interaction happened.Capital controls (Tobin tax), central bank intervention, GARCH regression model of the exchange rate return, effectiveness. Classification JEL:F31, F32, E58, C52.

Capital Account Controls, Bank’s Efficiency, Growth and Macroeconomic Volatility in the FLAR’s Member Countries?

This paper evaluates the effects of capital account controls adopted in the past years by the FLAR’s member countries (Bolivia, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Perú and Venezuela) on the efficiency of the banking sector, the economic growth and the volatility of output, consumption, and investment. The findings on efficiency show that the degree of the monopoly power in the loans and deposits markets are positively correlated with capital controls. The findings also indicate that, in general, capital controls neither reduce growth nor reduce macroeconomic volatility. On the contrary, and as it is expected, the capital account openness promotes growth.Capital account controls; Efficiency of the banking sector; Economic growth; Macroeconomic volatility; SUR; Cointegration; Arellano and Bond estimator; Instrumental variables

Identifying Fiscal Policy Shocks in Chile and Colombia

Structural VAR and Structural VEC models were estimated for Chile and Colombia, aiming at identifying fiscal policy shocks in both countries between 1990 and 2005. The impulse responses obtained allow the calculation of a peso-for-peso ($/$) effect on output of a shock to public spending and to the government's net tax revenues, providing a good notion of the incidence of fiscal policy shocks in both countries. When public finances are under control, as they are in Chile, fiscal policy seems to be more effective than when they lack stability and credibility, as seems to be the case of Colombia since the mid nineties.

IDENTIFYING FISCAL POLICY SHOCKS IN CHILE AND COLOMBIA

Structural VAR and Structural VEC models were estimated for Chile and Colombia, aiming at identifying fiscal policy shocks in both countries between 1990 and 2005. The impulse responses obtained allow the calculation of a pesofor- peso ($/$) effect on output of a shock to public spending and to the government's net tax revenues, providing a good notion of the incidence of fiscal policy shocks in both countries. When public finances are under control, as they are in Chile, fiscal policy seems to be more effective than when they lack stability and credibility, as seems to be the case of Colombia since the mid nineties.Identification, Fiscal Policy, SVAR, SVEC

Precios de los combustibles e inflación

El objetivo del documento es describir el proceso de formación de los precios de los combustibles en Colombia y cuantificar el impacto inflacionario de un choque a sus precios, con el fin de que sirva de marco de referencia para los pronósticos de inflación y las decisiones de política monetaria. Se estima que un choque del 10% a los precios de la gasolina y del ACPM aumenta la inflación del índice de precios al consumidor en 1,31%.Mercado de los combustibles (agentes e instituciones), estructura del mercado, política de precios, estructura y formación de precios, inflación. Classification JEL:E31; E64; H2; L10; L5; L71

Efectividad del Control a los Flujos de Capital: Un Reexamen Empírico de la Experiencia Reciente en Colombia

Este trabajo utiliza una medida de los flujos de capital privado de corto plazo y variables que buscan capturar los niveles de los créditos comerciales y de las transacciones internacionales y factores de expulsión y atracción para evaluar la efectividad de los controles de capital, específicamente de un depósito no remunerado sobre los flujos de crédito externo, en el caso colombiano. Se utiliza la metodología de Johansen y Juselius la cual permite usar directamente variables no estacionarias en las estimaciones y controlar por problemas de simultaneidad. La conclusión principal es que los controles han sido efectivos en disminuir los flujos de capital de corto plazo. La evidencia resalta también el papel jugado por factores de expulsión y atracción en la determinación de los flujos de crédito externo y muestra que la hipótesis de paridad descubierta de interés, ajustada por una prima de riesgo, no es satisfecha por los datos.Paridad Descubierta de Interés; Flujos de Capital; Depósito; Impuesto; Modelo de Corrección de Errores.

Un análisis comparativo de reglas fiscales cuantitativas

Cada día más países acuden a reglas fiscales como un mecanismo para consolidar y blindar procesos de ajuste, realizar política fiscal contracíclica y garantizar la sostenibilidad de su deuda pública en el mediano plazo. Este documento compara la regla fiscal diseñada para Colombia por el Comité Técnico Interinstitucional con cuatro reglas fiscales cuantitativas alternativas. Los resultados encontrados, a partir de ejercicios que utilizan datos artificiales, confirman las fortalezas relativas de la regla escogida.Reglas fiscales cuantitativas, reglas de naturaleza estructural, contraciclicidad, sostenibilidad de la deuda. Classification JEL: E61, E62, H62

Exchange Rate Pass-Through Effects: A Disaggregate Analysis of Colombian Imports of Manufactured Goods

Colombian monthly data covering the period from 1995:01 to 2002:11 and ECM, fixed and time-varying parameters and Kalman filter techniques are used in this paper to quantify the exchange rate pass-through effects on import prices within a sample of manufactured imports. Also, whether the foreign exchange and inflation regimes affect the degree of pass-through is evaluated. The analytical framework used was a mark-up model. The main finding is that the long-run pass-through elasticities for the industries in the sample are stable and go from 0.1 to 0.8 and the short-run ones are unstable and go from 0.1 to 0.7, supporting mark-up hypotheses, in contrast to the hypotheses of perfect market competition and complete pass-through. The findings also show evidence of the variability and different degrees of pass-trough among manufacturing sectors, which confirm the importance of using dynamic models and disaggregate data for an analysis of the pass-through. Both, the hypothesis that under a floating regime there is a low degree of pass-through and the hypothesis that a low inflation environment has the same result are not supported.Pass-through effects; PPP;Imperfect competition;Floating regime;Low inflation environment;Fixed parameter model; Time-varying parameter model; Kalman filtering.