Modeling HIV transmission and AIDS in the united states

The disease that came to be called acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) was first identified in the summer of 1981. By that time, nearly 100,000 persons in the United States may have been infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). By the time the routes of transmission were clearly identified and HIV was established as the cause of AIDS in 1983, over 300,000 people may have been infected. That number has continued to increase, with approximately 1,000,000 Americans believed to be infected in 1991. The epidemic is of great public health concern because HlV is infectious, causes severe morbidity and death in most if not all of those infected, and often occurs in relatively young persons. In addition, the cost of medical care for a person with HIV disease is high, and the medical care needs of HIV-infected persons place a severe burden on the medical care systems in many areas. Understanding and controlling the HIV epidemic is a particularly difficult challenge. The long and variable period between HIV infection and clinical disease makes it difficult both to forecast the future magnitude of the epidemic, which is important for health care planning, and to estimate the number infected in the last several years, which is important for monitoring the current status of the epidemic

Periodic Traveling Waves in SIRS Endemic Models

Mathematical models are used to determine if infection wave fronts could occur by traveling geographically in a loop around a region or continent. These infection wave fronts arise by Hopf bifurcation for some spatial models for infectious disease transmission with distributed-contacts. Periodic traveling waves are shown to exist for the spatial analog of the SIRS endemic model, in which the temporary immunity is described by a delay, but they do not exist in a similar spatial SIRS endemic model without a delay. Specifically, we found that the ratio of the delay w (omega) in the recovered class and the average infectious period 1/y (gamma) must be sufficiently large for Hopf bifurcation to occu

Bifurcations in a Host-Parasite Model with Nonlinear Incidence

A host-parasite model is proposed that incorporates a nonlinear incidence rate. Under the influence of multiple infectious attacks, the model admits bistable regions such that the infection dies out if initial states lie in one region, and the population and parasites coexist if initial states lie in the other region. It is also found that parasites can drive the population to extinction for suitable parameters. It is verified that the model has a saddle-node bifurcation, Hopf bifurcations and a cusp of codimension 2 or higher codimension. Stable limit cycles and unstable limit cycles are examined as the infection-reduced reproduction rate varies. It is shown that the model goes through the change of stages of infection extinction, infection persistence, infection extinction, and the extinction of both parasites and the population as the contact coefficient increases

Periodic Traveling Waves in SIRS Endemic Models

Mathematical models are used to determine if infection wave fronts could occur by traveling geographically in a loop around a region or continent. These infection wave fronts arise by Hopf bifurcation for some spatial models for infectious disease transmission with distributed-contacts. Periodic traveling waves are shown to exist for the spatial analog of the SIRS endemic model, in which the temporary immunity is described by a delay, but they do not exist in a similar spatial SIRS endemic model without a delay. Specifically, we found that the ratio of the delay w (omega) in the recovered class and the average infectious period 1/y (gamma) must be sufficiently large for Hopf bifurcation to occu

Species Coexistence and Periodicity in Host-Host-Pathogen Models

Models for the transmission of an infectious disease in one and two host populations with and without self-regulation are analyzed. Many unusual behaviors such as multiple positive equilibria and periodic solutions occur in previous models that use the mass-action (density-dependent) incidence. In contrast, the models formulated using the frequency-dependent (standard) incidence have the behavior of a classic endemic model, since below the threshold, the disease dies out, and above the threshold, the disease persists and the infectious fractions approach an endemic equilibrium. The results given here reinforce previous examples in which there are major differences in behavior between models using mass-action and frequency-dependent incidences

Hopf Bifurcation in Models for Pertussis Epidemiology

Pertussis (whooping cough) incidence in the United States has oscillated with a period of about four years since data was first collected in 1922. An infection with pertussis confers immunity for several years, but then the immunity wanes, so that reinfection is possible. A pertussis reinfection is mild after partial loss of immunity, but the reinfection can be severe after complete loss of immunity. Three pertussis transmission models with waning of immunity are examined for periodic solutions. Equilibria and their stability are determined. Hopf bifurcation of periodic solutions around the endemic equilibrium can occur for some parameter values in two of the models. Periods of about four years are found for epidemiologically reasonable parameter values in two of these models

Bifurcations in a Host-Parasite Model with Nonlinear Incidence

A host-parasite model is proposed that incorporates a nonlinear incidence rate. Under the influence of multiple infectious attacks, the model admits bistable regions such that the infection dies out if initial states lie in one region, and the population and parasites coexist if initial states lie in the other region. It is also found that parasites can drive the population to extinction for suitable parameters. It is verified that the model has a saddle-node bifurcation, Hopf bifurcations and a cusp of codimension 2 or higher codimension. Stable limit cycles and unstable limit cycles are examined as the infection-reduced reproduction rate varies. It is shown that the model goes through the change of stages of infection extinction, infection persistence, infection extinction, and the extinction of both parasites and the population as the contact coefficient increases