The Influence on Climate Change of Differing Scenarios for Future Development Analyzed Using the MIT Integrated Global System Model

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).A wide variety of scenarios for future development have played significant roles in climate policy discussions. This paper presents projections of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, sea level rise due to thermal expansion and glacial melt, oceanic acidity, and global mean temperature increases computed with the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) using scenarios for 21st century emissions developed by three different groups: intergovernmental (represented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), government (represented by the U.S. government Climate Change Science Program) and industry (represented by Royal Dutch Shell plc). In all these scenarios the climate system undergoes substantial changes. By 2100, the CO2 concentration ranges from 470 to 1020 ppm compared to a 2000 level of 365 ppm, the CO2-equivalent concentration of all greenhouse gases ranges from 550 to 1780 ppm in comparison to a 2000 level of 415 ppm, sea level rises by 24 to 56 cm relative to 2000 due to thermal expansion and glacial melt, oceanic acidity changes from a current pH of around 8 to a range from 7.63 to 7.91. The global mean temperature increases by 1.8 to 7.0 degrees C relative to 2000.The IGSM model used here is supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. National Science Foundation, U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and the Industry and Foundation Sponsors of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change

Analysis of Climate Policy Targets under Uncertainty

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).Although policymaking in response to the climate change is essentially a challenge of risk management, most studies of the relation of emissions targets to desired climate outcomes are either deterministic or subject to a limited representation of the underlying uncertainties. Monte Carlo simulation, applied to the MIT Integrated Global System Model (an integrated economic and earth system model of intermediate complexity), is used to analyze the uncertain outcomes that flow from a set of century-scale emissions targets developed originally for a study by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. Results are shown for atmospheric concentrations, radiative forcing, sea ice cover and temperature change, along with estimates of the odds of achieving particular target levels, and for the global costs of the associated mitigation policy. Comparison with other studies of climate targets are presented as evidence of the value, in understanding the climate challenge, of more complete analysis of uncertainties in human emissions and climate system response.This study received support from the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, which is funded by a consortium of government, industry and foundation sponsors

A millimeter-wave kinetic inductance detector camera for long-range imaging through optical obscurants

Millimeter-wave imaging provides a promising option for long-range target detection through optical obscurants such as fog, which often occur in marine environments. Given this motivation, we are currently developing a 150 GHz polarization-sensitive imager using a relatively new type of superconducting pair-breaking detector, the kinetic inductance detector (KID). This imager will be paired with a 1.5 m telescope to obtain an angular resolution of 0.09° over a 3.5° field of view using 3,840 KIDs. We have fully characterized a prototype KID array, which shows excellent performance with noise strongly limited by the irreducible fluctuations from the ambient temperature background. Full-scale KID arrays are now being fabricated and characterized for a planned demonstration in a maritime environment later this year

Hyponatremia and hypercalcemia: a study of a large cohort of patients with lung cancer

Background: Hyponatremia and hypercalcemia are reported to be associated with poorer prognosis in lung cancer. Our study assessed the incidence of hyponatremia and hypercalcemia in a recent large cohort of patients diagnosed with lung cancer in an academic institution and correlated incidence with patient and tumour parameters. Methods: All patients presented at our regional lung cancer multidisciplinary team meeting between January 2011 and December 2016 were included. The incidence of hyponatremia (serum sodium ≤135 mEq/L) and hypercalcemia (serum calcium >2.62 mmol/L), including severity (mild, moderate or severe) was evaluated and stratified by tumour subtype and stage, and correlated with patient parameters. Results: A total of 624 patients (mean age, 67.4 years; 59.3% male) diagnosed with tissue-proven lung cancer were included. Hyponatremia and hypercalcemia were present in 31.6% (n=197) and 7.1% (n=44) at time of diagnosis. Hyponatremia occurred most commonly in patients with small cell lung carcinoma (SCLC) (n=42; 41.2%; P=0.001). Hypercalcemia occurred most commonly in patients with non-small cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC) squamous subtype (n=27; 12.2%; P=0.003). The incidence of hyponatremia and hypercalcemia were significantly higher in the advanced stages (P<0.041), except in SCLC where no difference in hypercalcemia incidence across the stages was observed (P=0.573). The Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status (ECOG-PS) score was positively correlated with severity of hyponatremia at the early stage of NSCLC (Spearman correlation coefficient =0.325; P=0.003). Conclusions: Hyponatremia is a common association in lung cancer, especially in SCLC. Hypercalcemia is an uncommon but significant association in the NSCLC squamous subtype. Hyponatremia might contribute to poorer ECOG-PS scores at the early stage of NSCLC

CT densitometry as a predictor of pulmonary function in lung cancer patients.

Purpose: Preoperative pulmonary assessment is undertaken in patients with resectable lung cancer to identify those at increased risk of perioperative complications. Guidelines from the American College of Chest Physicians indicate that if the FEV1 and DLCO are ≥60% of predicted, patients are suitable for resection without further evaluation. The aim of our study is to determine if quantitative measures of lung volume and density obtained from pre-operative CT scans correlate with pulmonary function tests. This may allow us to predict pulmonary function in patients with lung cancer and identify patients who would tolerate surgical resection. Materials and Methods: Patients were identified retrospectively from the lung cancer database of a tertiary hospital. Image segmentation software was utilized to estimate total lung volume, normal lung volume (values -500 HU to -910 HU), emphysematous volume (values less than -910 HU), and mean lung density from pre-operative CT studies for each patient and these values were compared to contemporaneous pulmonary function tests. Results: A total of 77 patients were enrolled. FEV1 was found to correlate significantly with the mean lung density (r=.762, p<.001) and the volume of emphysema (r= -.678, p<.001). DLCO correlated significantly with the mean lung density (r =.648, p<.001) and the volume of emphysematous lung (r= -.535, p<.001). Conclusion: The results of this study suggest that both FEV1 and DLCO correlate significantly with volume of emphysema and mean lung density. We now plan to prospectively compare these CT parameters with measures of good and poor outcome postoperatively to identify CT measures that may predict surgical outcome preoperatively

Adding a Brane to the Brane-Anti-Brane Action in BSFT

We attempt to generalize the effective action for the D-brane-anti-D-brane system obtained from boundary superstring field theory (BSFT) by adding an extra D-brane to it to obtain a covariantized action for 2 D-branes and 1 anti-D-brane. We discuss the approximations made to obtain the effective action in closed form. Among other properties, this effective action admits solitonic solutions of codimension 2 (vortices) when one of the D-brane is far separated from the brane-anti-brane pair.Comment: 23 pages, 2 figures, minor revision

Pulmonary mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue lymphoma- A single center review of the diagnostic approach

Pulmonary mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue (MALT) lymphoma is a rare disease, and diagnosis is difficult, often requiring multiple attempts at tissue sampling. The aim of this review was to evaluate the diagnostic pathway. A retrospective review was performed of patients diagnosed with pulmonary MALT lymphoma in a tertiary referral lung cancer center over 9 years. Ten patients were identified, and each diagnostic and treatment approach was analysed. 30% were diagnosed via transbronchial biopsy, two with the assistance of radial probe ultrasound guidance and one with transbronchial lung cryobiopsy of a predetermined CT-guided targeted segment. 70% were diagnosed following surgical biopsy. 40% had localized disease. The diagnosis was not successfully achieved until a large-sized tissue specimen was obtained. The implementation of novel bronchoscopy techniques can assist in reducing the number of invasive surgical procedures required to obtain a diagnosis. All cases should be discussed in a multidisciplinary setting prior to diagnostic attempts

A new approach in blade shape adjustment in PBD-14 design mode

Thesis (S.M. and Nav.E.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Ocean Engineering, 2001.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 68-70).The purpose of this study is to develop a more efficient and robust algorithm for adjusting the blade shape as a part of a coupled lifting-surface design/analysis code for marine propulsors developed at MIT, known as PBD-14. The algorithm for adjusting the blade shape in the current version of PBD-14 works satisfactorily in most cases. However, with more complex schemes such as ducted propulsors and/or higher load distributions, the process has to be carefully monitored by the user and the blade surface can develop corrugations in the spanwise direction. A different approach investigated in this study is based on an idea of aligning the blade shape by tracing streamlines. In order to satisfy the kinematic boundary condition, the final blade shape has to exactly match the streamlines of the flow field in which the propeller blade operates. The algorithm that is developed traces streamlines by calculating the total velocity on a grid of points and then exactly fits the blade on this grid of points. Initial tests of this algorithm have demonstrated its robustness by producing accurate blade shapes both in uniform and in more complicated flow fields. Finally, propeller fabrication is investigated, and tolerance issues as well as propeller inspection methods, traditional and modem, are examined. A cost analysis is performed that investigates the economic impact of manufacturing an example propeller according to a certain tolerance system.by Aristomenis Chrisospathis.S.M.and Nav.E

An Improved Brane Anti-Brane Action from Boundary Superstring Field Theory and Multi-Vortex Solutions

We present an improved effective action for the D-brane-anti-D-brane system obtained from boundary superstring field theory. Although the action looks highly non-trivial, it has simple explicit multi-vortex (i.e. codimension-2 multi-BPS D-brane) multi-anti-vortex solutions. The solutions have a curious degeneracy corresponding to different ``magnetic'' fluxes at the core of each vortex. We also generalize the brane anti-brane effective action that is suitable for the study of the inflationary scenario and the production of defects in the early universe. We show that when a brane and anti-brane are distantly separated, although the system is classically stable it can decay via quantum tunneling through the barrier.Comment: 24 pages, 1 figure, JHEP3.cls; v2: references added, tunneling rate discussion expande

Corrigendum

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2010. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 23 (2010): 2230–2231, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3566.1.Corrigendum: Sokolov, A., and Coauthors, 2009: Probabilistic forecast for twenty-first-century climate based on uncertainties in emissions (without policy) and climate parameters. J. Climate, 22, 5175–5204