Values or interests: Economic Determinants of Voting Behavior in the 2007 Croatian Parliamentary Elections

The article examines the importance of economic issues as determinants of voting behavior in Croatia in the 2007 parliamentary elections. It seeks to establish whether there is an electoral division between winners and losers of transition in Croatia and whether the voters’ positions on economic issues are mainly shaped by their political affiliation, rather than their position in the social structure. Drawing upon survey data from the 2007 elections, it is argued here that economic issues, notably the division between transitional winners and losers, do not play an important role in determining support for the two main political parties. The article also finds that the voters’ opinion on economic issues salient in recent elections and the voters’ evaluation of economic conditions are mostly structured by their affiliation to a particular political party. Finally, it concludes that economic issues are less relevant in structuring the voting behavior in Croatia than the ones related to culture and history, and that, unless a major realignment takes place, what voter’s think about economic issues could be largely conditioned by what parties they support say

Vjera u institucije i zadovoljstvo demokracijom u Hrvatskoj: ocjene na temelju političke pristranosti nasuprot ocjenama na temelju rezultata

The article investigates the determinants of trust in institutions and satisfaction with democracy in Croatia. The article starts with the proposition that effective governance requires efficient accountability mechanisms, whereby political actors and institutions, as well as democracy performance, are evaluated on the basis of the outcomes they deliver to citizens. However, in highly polarised societies, evaluations of political institutions and regime performance are more likely to depend on how well these express the preferences and identities of citizens rather than on the governance outcomes they deliver. Thus, in strongly polarised societies, where politics is seen as a zero-sum game, evaluations of political institutions and democracy performance are likely to be dependent on partisan identification and political identity representation. Evaluations of the democratic regime and trust in institutions in Croatia as a highly polarised society are more likely to be shaped by partisan identification and representation than by the outcomes delivered. The article proceeds to test these propositions with survey data collected for the 2011, 2015, and 2016 elections. The article tests these propositions using multiple regression analysis testing the impact of partisanship in comparison with a range of other factors measuring political attitudes, political efficacy, economic evaluations, social trust, political knowledge, and socioeconomic position. The analysis finds that the impact of partisanship, and variables found to be related to partisanship, is strong and significant, both for political institutions, such as trust in parliament and government, and non-political institutions, such as trust in judiciary and public administration. Similar findings are also established for evaluations of democracy. The analysis also establishes that the impact of partisanship is more consistently significant than the impact of other variables, and that it is strongest for evaluations of democracy, followed by trust in government and parliament, and finally trust in public administration and the judiciary.U radu se istražuju determinante koje određuju vjeru u institucije i zadovoljstvo demokracijom u Hrvatskoj. Polazi se od pretpostavke da učinkovito upravljanje podrazumijeva učinkovite mehanizme odgvornosti putem kojih se političke aktere i institucije, kao i demokraciju u praksi, ocjenjuje na temelju rezultata koje isporučuju građanima. Ipak, u duboko je podijeljenim društvima veća vjerojatnost da će građani političke institucije i djelovanje političkog poretka ocijeniti ovisno o tome koliko oni uspješno odražavaju preferencije i identitet građana, a ne na temelju rezultata njihova upravljanja. U takvim duboko podijeljenim društvima koja politiku doživljavaju kao igru u kojoj jedna strana mora dobiti a druga izgubiti, vjerojatno je da će ocjene političkih institucija i demokratskog djelovanja ovisiti o poistovjećivanju građana s pojedinim političkim strankama i u kojoj mjeri one predstavljaju njihov politički identitet. Na ocjene demokratskog poretka te vjere u institucije u duboko podijeljenome hrvatskom društvu vjerojatnije će utjecati poistovjećivanje s političkim strankama nego rezultati upravljanja. U radu se provjerava utemeljenost navedenih pretpostavki na osnovi podataka o izborima 2011., 2015. i 2016. godine. Primjenom višestruke regresijske analize nastoji se utvrditi utjecaj političke pristranosti u usporedbi s brojnim drugim čimbenicima kojima se mjere politički stavovi, politička učinkovitost, ocjena ekonomske situacije, povjerenje u društvo, znanje o politici i društveno-ekonomski položaj. Rezultati analize upućuju na to da je utjecaj političke pristranosti, kao i varijabli koje su s njime povezane, snažan i statistički značajan i kada je riječ o povjerenju u političke institucije poput Sabora i Vlade i kada je riječ o povjerenju u institucije koje nisu političke, primjerice pravosudni sustav i javnu upravu. Rezultati su slični pri ocjenjivanju demokracije te se utvrđuje da utjecaj političke pristranosti ima dosljednije statističko značenje od utjecaja drugih varijabli. Također se utvrđuje da je utjecaj političke pristranosti najjači kod ocjenjivanja demokracije, potom kod povjerenja u Vladu i Sabor te konačno kod povjerenja u javnu upravu i pravosuđe

Starenje stanovništva i distributivni sukobi: distributivne podjele na temelju dobi u zapadnoj Europi

Advanced industrial societies are facing pressures to spend more on pensions and services for the elderly, at the same time as they need to invest more in the raising participation of younger population in the labour force and the integration of immigrants needed to replenish the ageing labour force. This sets the stage for distributive conflicts between groups favouring different types of welfare spending. The paper argues that the strength and the nature of distributive conflicts depend to a large extent on the spending focus of the welfare system, the type of the pension system and the importance of the family within the welfare system. While in countries with occupation-based pension systems and welfare systems with spending tilted toward the elderly we can expect to observe the strong presence of age based divisions, in countries with universalist pension systems and welfare systems with more balanced spending patterns we can expect age to have much smaller effects. The paper tests these propositions using the Eurobarometer data. The findings support the proposition concerning the importance of age based distributive divisions and their variation across national contexts. This variation seems to be linked with the spending focus of the welfare state, but in a way that is not in accordance with our expectations.Razvijena industrijska društva suočena su s pritiscima veće potrošnje na mirovine i na usluge za starije osobe u isto vrijeme kada postoji potreba za većim ulaganjem u rastući udio mlađeg stanovništva u radnoj snazi i u integraciju imigranata potrebnih da se obnovi radna snaga koja stari. To priprema teren za distributivne sukobe između grupa koje su naklonjene različitim tipovima socijalne potrošnje. Članak tvrdi da snaga i priroda distributivnih sukoba uvelike ovisi o usmjerenju potrošnje unutar socijalnog sustava, vrsti mirovinskog sustava i važnosti obitelji unutar socijalnog sustava. Dok u zemljama s mirovinskim sustavima utemeljenim na profesijama i socijalnim sustavima s većom potrošnjom na starije osobe možemo očekivati snažnu prisutnost razlika na temelju dobi, u zemljama s univerzalnim mirovinskim sustavima i sa socijalnim sustavima s uravnoteženijim uzorcima potrošnje možemo očekivati mnogo manje učinke. Članak provjerava te tvrdnje rabeći Eurobarometer podatke. Rezultati potvrđuju tvrdnju u pogledu razlika na temelju dobi i njihovih varijacija u nacionalnim kontekstima. Čini se da su varijacije povezane s preusmjeravanjem troškova u socijalnoj državi, no na način koji nije u skladu s našim očekivanjima

Stranačka identifikacija i granice stranačke mobilizacije u Hrvatskoj nakon 2000. godine

Rad istražuje razloge nastanka obrasca asimetrične stranačke mobilizacije u hrvatskom stranačkom sustavu nakon 1990. godine i pokušava povezati kretanje stranačke potpore s obrascem veza između stranaka i birača. U članku se polazi od nalaza da je biračka potpora HDZ-u kroz čitavo razdoblje nakon prvih izbora bila prilično stabilna, dok je potpora birača stranaka ljevice i centra bila vrlo promjenjiva. Razlog tome autor nalazi u tipu veza između stranaka i birača koje se primarno temelje na simbolima i vrijednostima oblikovanim kroz više desetljeća. Oni imaju vrlo stabilan utjecaj i otežavaju promjene biračkih lojalnosti. Asimetrični se obrazac mobilizacije javlja zato što se birači HDZ-a identificiraju sa strankom na osnovi vrijednosti i simbola koje povezuju sa samom strankom, dok se birači stranaka ljevice i centra više identifi ciraju s vrijednostima koje ove stranke manje ili više uspješno zastupaju. Empirijska analiza faktora koji oblikuju odnos prema strankama potvrđuje da najveći utjecaj imaju odnos prema religiji, povijesti i tradicionalnim vrijednostima. Međutim, analiza isto tako pokazuje da se važnost ovih faktora s vremenom mijenja i ovisi o obrascima koalicija između stranaka odnosno o porukama stranačkog vodstva.The article analyses the reasons behind the establishment of the asymmetrical pattern of mobilization of party support in the Croatian party system after 1990. It aims to asses to what extent linkages between parties and voters aff ect the volatility of electoral support. The argument starts with an observation that electoral support for HDZ was very stable throughout the period after the 1990 elections, while the support for left and centre parties exhibited a high degree of volatility in each election since 1990. The article posits that the reasons behind this pattern of shifts in electoral support lies in the type of linkages between parties and voters based on symbols and values shaped over a longer period of time, which were mobilized in the party system in 1990s and established stable linkages between parties and voters, eff ectively preventing any transmission of support across party bloc lines. Reasons behind the formation of asymmetrical pattern of mobilization lie in the fact that HDZ voters identify with their party based on values and symbols linked with the party itself, while voters of left and centre parties identify more with values these parties represent, more or less eff ectively, than with the parties themselves. Empirical analysis of factors shaping party voter linkages fi nds that attitudes toward religion; history and traditional values are principal factors defi ning linkages between parties and voters. But at the same time, it appears that the character of these linkages is changing over time and that it depends on coalition patterns and shifts in messages of the party leadership

What the Presidential Elections Can Tell Us About Political Trends in Croatia

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GOALS AND STRATEGIES OF PARTY COMPETITION

Autor razmatra fenomen stranačkog natjecanja koristeći literaturu teoretičara bliskih teoriji racionalnog izbora koja ne pretpostavlja usku vezu političkih poduzetnika s društvenim grupama. Na ovaj način želi pokazati da stranačko natjecanje ima svoju vremensku dimenziju u okviru koje stranke imaju različite ciljeve koji ovise o njihovoj kompetitivnoj situaciji. Nakon toga pokazuje da su različiti modeli analize stranačkog natjecanja umnogome povezani s početnim pretpostavkama o kojima ovisi njihova eksplanatorna snaga. U završnom dijelu rada autor daje opis faktora koji su važni za izbor ciljeva i strategija stranačkog natjecanja, pri čemu posebnu pažnju pridaje faktoru stranačke organizacije.The author looks into the phenomenon of party competition by referring to the works of the proponents of the theory of rational choice which does not presuppose close links between political entrepreneurs and social groups. The author tries to prove that party competition has its temporal dimension within which parties have different goals that depend on their competitive situation. The author goes on to prove that various models of the analysis of party competition are to a large extent linked with the original assumptions that determine their explanatory power. In conclusion, the author outlines the factors determining the choice of the goals and the strategies of party competition, especially the factor of party organization

Migrantska kriza 2015. i determinante stavova birača

Što oblikuje pozitivan i negativan odnos prema migrantima u Hrvatskoj? Ovaj rad pokušava dati odgovor na to pitanje analizirajući determinante odnosa prema otvorenom i negativnom stavu prema migrantima