Alternative Methods to Predict Actual Evapotranspiration Illustrate the Importance of Accounting for Phenology: The Event Driven Phenology Model Part II

Evapotranspiration (ET) flux constitutes a major component of both the water and energy balances at the land surface. Among the many factors that control evapotranspiration, phenology poses a major source of uncertainty in attempts to predict ET. Contemporary approaches to ET modeling and monitoring frequently summarize the complexity of the seasonal development of vegetation cover into static phenological trajectories (or climatologies) that lack sensitivity to changing environmental conditions. The Event Driven Phenology Model (EDPM) offers an alternative, interactive approach to representing phenology. This study presents the results of an experiment designed to illustrate the differences in ET arising from various techniques used to mimic phenology in models of land surface processes. The experiment compares and contrasts two realizations of static phenologies derived from long-term satellite observations of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) against canopy trajectories produced by the interactive EDPM trained on flux tower observations. The assessment was carried out through validation of predicted ET against records collected by flux tower instruments. The VegET model (Senay, 2008) was used as a framework to estimate daily actual evapotranspiration and supplied with seasonal canopy trajectories produced by the EDPM and traditional techniques. The interactive approach presented the following advantages over phenology modeled with static climatologies: (a) lower prediction bias in crops; (b) smaller root mean square error in daily ET – 0.5 mm per day on average; (c) stable level of errors throughout the season similar among different land cover types and locations; and (d) better estimation of season duration and total seasonal ET

Land Surface Phenology and Seasonality Using Cool Earthlight in Croplands of Eastern Africa and the Linkages to Crop Production

Across Eastern Africa, croplands cover 45 million ha. The regional economy is heavily dependent on small holder traditional rain-fed peasant agriculture (up to 90%), which is vulnerable to extreme weather events such as drought and floods that leads to food insecurity. Agricultural production in the region is moisture limited. Weather station data are scarce and access is limited, while optical satellite data are obscured by heavy clouds limiting their value to study cropland dynamics. Here, we characterized cropland dynamics in Eastern Africa for 2003–2015 using precipitation data from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and a passive microwave dataset of land surface variables that blends data from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) on the Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) from 2002 to 2011 with data from AMSR2 from 2012 to 2015 with a Chinese microwave radiometer to fill the gap. These time series were analyzed in terms of either cumulative precipitable water vapor-days (CVDs) or cumulative actual evapotranspiration-days (CETaDs), rather than as days of the year. Time series of the land surface variables displayed unimodal seasonality at study sites in Ethiopia and South Sudan, in contrast to bimodality at sites in Tanzania. Interannual moisture variability was at its highest at the beginning of the growing season affecting planting times of crops, while it was lowest at the time of peak moisture. Actual evapotranspiration (ETa) from the simple surface energy balance (SSEB) model was sensitive to track both unimodal and bimodal rainfall patterns. ETa as a function of CETaD was better fitted by a quadratic model (r2 \u3e 0.8) than precipitable water vapor was by CVDs (r2 \u3e 0.6). Moisture time to peak (MTP) for the land surface variables showed strong, logical correspondence among variables (r2 \u3e 0.73). Land surface parameters responded to El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole forcings. Area under the curve of the diel difference in vegetation optical depth showed correspondence to crop production and yield data collected by local offices, but not to the data reported at the national scale. A long-term seasonal Mann–Kendall rainfall trend showed a significant decrease for Ethiopia, while the decrement was not significant for Tanzania. While there is significant potential for passive microwave data to augment cropland status and food security monitoring efforts in the region, more research is needed before these data can be used in an operational environmen

A New Concept for Simulation of Vegetated Land Surface Dynamics: The Event Driven Phenology Model Part I

Phenologies of the vegetated land surface are being used increasingly for diagnosis and prognosis of climate change consequences. Current prospective and retrospective phenological models stand far apart in their approaches to the subject. We report on an exploratory attempt to implement a phenological model based on a new event driven concept which has both diagnostic and prognostic capabilities in the same modeling framework. This Event Driven Phenological Model (EDPM) is shown to simulate land surface phenologies and phenophase transition dates in agricultural landscapes based on assimilation of weather data and land surface observations from spaceborne sensors. The model enables growing season phenologies to develop in response to changing environmental conditions and disturbance events. It also has the ability to ingest remotely sensed data to adjust its output to improve representation of the modeled variable. We describe the model and report results of initial testing of the EDPM using Level 2 flux tower records from the Ameri- flux sites at Mead, Nebraska, USA, and at Bondville, Illinois, USA. Simulating the dynamics of normalized difference vegetation index based on flux tower data, the predictions by the EDPM show good agreement (RMSE0.8) for maize and soybean during several growing seasons at different locations. This study presents the EDPM used in the companion paper (Kovalskyy and Henebry, 2011) in a coupling scheme to estimate daily actual evapotranspiration over multiple growing seasons

Characterizing Cropland Phenology in Major Grain Production Areas of Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan by the Synergistic Use of Passive Microwave and Visible to Near Infrared Data

We demonstrate the synergistic use of surface air temperature retrieved from AMSR-E (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on Earth observing satellite) and two vegetation indices (VIs) from the shorter wavelengths of MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) to characterize cropland phenology in the major grain production areas of Northern Eurasia from 2003–2010. We selected 49 AMSR-E pixels across Ukraine, Russia, and Kazakhstan, based on MODIS land cover percentage data. AMSR-E air temperature growing degree-days (GDD) captures the weekly, monthly, and seasonal oscillations, and well correlated with station GDD. A convex quadratic (CxQ) model that linked thermal time measured as growing degree-days to accumulated growing degree-days (AGDD) was fitted to each pixel’s time series yielding high coefficients of determination (0.88 ≤ r2 ≤ 0.98). Deviations of observed GDD from the CxQ model predicted GDD by site corresponded to peak VI for negative residuals (period of higher latent heat flux) and low VI at beginning and end of growing season for positive residuals (periods of higher sensible heat flux). Modeled thermal time to peak, i.e., AGDD at peak GDD, showed a strong inverse linear trend with respect to latitude with r2 of 0.92 for Russia and Kazakhstan and 0.81 for Ukraine. MODIS VIs tracked similar seasonal responses in time and space and were highly correlated across the growing season with r2 \u3e 0.95. Sites at lower latitude (≤49°N) that grow winter and spring grains showed either a bimodal growing season or a shorter unimodal winter growing season with substantial inter-annual variability, whereas sites at higher latitude (≥56°N) where spring grains are cultivated exhibited shorter, unimodal growing seasons. Sites between these extremes exhibited longer unimodal growing seasons. At some sites there were shifts between unimodal and bimodal patterns over the study period. Regional heat waves that devastated grain production in 2007 in Ukraine and in 2010 in Russia and Kazakhstan appear clearly anomalous. Microwave based surface air temperature data holds great promise to extend to parts of the planet where the land surface is frequently obscured by clouds, smoke, or aerosols, and where routine meteorological observations are sparse or absent

A New Approach for the Analysis of Hyperspectral Data: Theory and Sensitivity Analysis of the Moment Distance Method

We present the Moment Distance (MD) method to advance spectral analysis in vegetation studies. It was developed to take advantage of the information latent in the shape of the reflectance curve that is not available from other spectral indices. Being mathematically simple but powerful, the approach does not require any curve transformation, such as smoothing or derivatives. Here, we show the formulation of the MD index (MDI) and demonstrate its potential for vegetation studies. We simulated leaf and canopy reflectance samples derived from the combination of the PROSPECT and SAIL models to understand the sensitivity of the new method to leaf and canopy parameters. We observed reasonable agreements between vegetation parameters and the MDI when using the 600 to 750 nm wavelength range, and we saw stronger agreements in the narrow red-edge region 720 to 730 nm. Results suggest that the MDI is more sensitive to the Chl content, especially at higher amounts (Chl \u3e 40 mg/cm2) compared to other indices such as NDVI, EVI, and WDRVI. Finally, we found an indirect relationship of MDI against the changes of the magnitude of the reflectance around the red trough with differing values of LAI

Comparing Passive Microwave with Visible-To-Near-Infrared Phenometrics in Croplands of Northern Eurasia

Planting and harvesting times drive cropland phenology. There are few datasets that derive explicit phenological metrics, and these datasets use the visible to near infrared (VNIR) spectrum. Many different methods have been used to derive phenometrics such as Start of Season (SOS) and End of Season (EOS), leading to differing results. This discrepancy is partly due to spatial and temporal compositing of the VNIR satellite data to minimize data gaps resulting from cloud cover, atmospheric aerosols, and solar illumination constraints. Phenometrics derived from the downward Convex Quadratic model (CxQ) include Peak Height (PH) and Thermal Time to Peak (TTP), which are more consistent than SOS and EOS because they are minimally affected by snow and frost and other non-vegetation related issues. Here, we have determined PH using the vegetation optical depth (VOD) in three microwave frequencies (6.925, 10.65 and 18.7 GHz) and accumulated growing degree-days derived from AMSR-E (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on EOS) data at a spatial resolution of 25 km. We focus on 50 AMSR-E cropland pixels in the major grain production areas of Northern Eurasia (Ukraine, southwestern Russia, and northern Kazakhstan) for 2003–2010. We compared the land surface phenologies of AMSR-E VOD and MODIS NDVI data. VOD time series tracked cropland seasonal dynamics similar to that recorded by the NDVI. The coefficients of determination for the CxQ model fit of the NDVI data were high for all sites (0.78 \u3c R2 \u3c 0.99). The 10.65 GHz VOD (VOD1065GHz) achieved the best linear regression fit (R2 = 0.84) with lowest standard error (SEE = 0.128); it is therefore recommended for microwave VOD studies of cropland land surface phenology. Based on an Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA) analysis, the slopes from the linear regression fit were not significantly different by microwave frequency, whereas the intercepts were significantly different, given the different magnitudes of the VODs. PHs for NDVI and VOD were highly correlated. Despite their strong correspondence, there was generally a lag of AMSR-E PH VOD10.65GHz by about two weeks compared to MODIS peak greenness. To evaluate the utility of the PH determination based on maximum value, we correlated the CxQ derived and maximum value determined PHs of NDVI and found that they were highly correlated with R2 of 0.87, but with a one-week bias. Considering the one-week bias between the two methods, we find that PH of VOD10.65GHz lags PH of NDVI by three weeks. We conclude, therefore, that maximum-value based PH of VOD can be a complementary phenometric for the CxQ model derived PH NDVI, especially in cloud and aerosol obscured regions of the world

Dual Scale Trend Analysis Distinguishes Climatic from Anthropogenic Effects on the Vegetated Land Surface

We present a dual scale trend analysis for characterizing and comparing two contrasting areas of change in Russia and Kazakhstan that lie less than 800 km apart. We selected a global NASA MODIS (moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer) product (MCD43C4 and MCD43A4) at a 0.05◦ (∼5.6 km) and 500 m spatial resolution and a 16-day temporal resolution from 2000 to 2008. We applied a refinement of the seasonal Kendall trend method to the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) image series at both scales. We only incorporated composites during the vegetative growing season which was delineated by start of season and end of season estimates based on analysis of normalized difference infrared index data. Trend patterns on two scales pointed to drought as the proximal cause of significant declines in NDVI in Kazakhstan. In contrast, the area of increasing NDVI trend in Russia was linked through the dual scale analysis with agricultural land cover change. The coarser scale analysis was relevant to atmospheric boundary layer processes, while the finer scale data revealed trends that were more relevant to human decision-making and regional economics

Land Surface Anomalies Preceding the 2010 Russian Heat Wave and a Link to the North Atlantic Oscillation

The Eurasian wheat belt (EWB) spans a region across Eastern Ukraine, Southern Russia, and Northern Kazakhstan; accounting for nearly 15% of global wheat production. We assessed land surface conditions across the EWB during the early growing season (April–May–June; AMJ) leading up to the 2010 Russian heat wave, and over a longer-term period from 2000 to 2010. A substantial reduction in early season values of the normalized difference vegetation index occurred prior to the Russian heat wave, continuing a decadal decline in early season primary production in the region. In 2010, an anomalously cold winter followed by an abrupt shift to a warmer-than-normal early growing season was consistent with a persistently negative phase of the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO). Regression analyses showed that early season vegetation productivity in the EWB is a function of both the winter (December–January–February; DJF) and AMJ phases of the NAO. Land surface anomalies preceding the heat wave were thus consistent with highly negative values of both the DJF NAO and AMJ NAO in 2010

Alternative methods to predict actual evapotranspiration illustrate the importance of accounting for phenology – Part 2: The event driven phenology model

Evapotranspiration (ET) flux constitutes a major component of both the water and energy balances at the land surface. Among the many factors that control evapotranspiration, phenology poses a major source of uncertainty in attempts to predict ET. Contemporary approaches to ET modeling and monitoring frequently summarize the complexity of the seasonal development of vegetation cover into static phenological trajectories (or climatologies) that lack sensitivity to changing environmental conditions. The Event Driven Phenology Model (EDPM) offers an alternative, interactive approach to representing phenology. This study presents the results of an experiment designed to illustrate the differences in ET arising from various techniques used to mimic phenology in models of land surface processes. The experiment compares and contrasts two realizations of static phenologies derived from long-term satellite observations of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) against canopy trajectories produced by the interactive EDPM trained on flux tower observations. The assessment was carried out through validation of predicted ET against records collected by flux tower instruments. The VegET model (Senay, 2008) was used as a framework to estimate daily actual evapotranspiration and supplied with seasonal canopy trajectories produced by the EDPM and traditional techniques. The interactive approach presented the following advantages over phenology modeled with static climatologies: (a) lower prediction bias in crops; (b) smaller root mean square error in daily ET – 0.5 mm per day on average; (c) stable level of errors throughout the season similar among different land cover types and locations; and (d) better estimation of season duration and total seasonal ET

Spatial and Seasonal Responses of Precipitation in the Ganges and Brahmaputra River Basins to ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole Modes: Implications for Flooding and Drought

We evaluated the spatial and seasonal responses of precipitation in the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins as modulated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) modes using Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) full data reanalysis of monthly global land-surface precipitation data from 1901 to 2010 with a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5°. The GPCC monthly total precipitation climatology targeting the period 1951–2000 was used to compute gridded monthly anomalies for the entire time period. The gridded monthly anomalies were averaged for the years influenced by combinations of climate modes. Occurrences of El Niño alone significantly reduce (88% of the long-term average (LTA)) precipitation during the monsoon months in the western and southeastern Ganges Basin. In contrast, occurrences of La Niña and co-occurrences of La Niña and negative IOD events significantly enhance (110 and 109% of LTA in the Ganges and Brahmaputra Basin, respectively) precipitation across both basins. When El Niño co-occurs with positive IOD events, the impacts of El Niño on the basins\u27 precipitation diminishes. When there is no active ENSO or IOD events (occurring in 41 out of 110 years), precipitation remains below average (95% of LTA) in the agriculturally intensive areas of Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Western Nepal in the Ganges Basin, whereas precipitation remains average to above average (104% of LTA) across the Brahmaputra Basin. This pattern implies that a regular water deficit is likely, especially in the Ganges Basin, with implications for the agriculture sector due to its reliance on consistent rainfall for successful production. Historically, major droughts occurred during El Niño and co-occurrences of El Niño and positive IOD events, while major flooding occurred during La Niña and co-occurrences of La Niña and negative IOD events in the basins. This observational analysis will facilitate well-informed decision making in minimizing natural hazard risks and climate impacts on agriculture, and supports development of strategies ensuring optimized use of water resources in best management practice under a changing climate