Tax Reform and the Slope of the Playing Field

Possible benefits of tax reform include faster economic growth and greater equity across households. A part of economic growth is the channeling of saving into the most productive real investments. The ability of various tax regimes to channel saving efficiently and independently of the inflation rate is the focus of the current paper. The tax regimes include current law, preERTA law, the Treasury and Administration reform proposals, HR 3838, and what seems likely to come out of the Senate Finance Committee.

Mortgage Pricing: What Have We Learned So Far?

Much progress has been achieved in the valuation of call options and interest-rate caps on default-free mortgages. The evidence suggests that the observed term structure of interest rates (the full structure, not just the end points) and a reasonable estimate of the volatility of spot rates is sufficient for pricing purposes. Knowledge of the precise nature of the interest-rate process and the exact market price of interest-rate risk, the not-well-identified determinants of the term structure, are not necessary for pricing. (The analogy to pricing stock options is striking; there, knowledge of the observed stock price -- and the present value of expected future dividends -- and a reasonable estimate of the volatility of the stock price are sufficient to price the option.) Moreover, the number of interest-rate state variables is also of little import, again holding the term structure and rate volatility constant. Pricing the mortgage default option, in contrast, is still in the embryonic stage. The stochastic process analogous to the interest-rate process in valuing call is a house price process: if a house price declines sufficiently, default occurs. The observed house price, the present value of expected future "dividends" (rents), and the volatility of house prices is, in principle, sufficient to value default (again note the analogy to stock price options). Unfortunately, rents are unknown, and no observable term-structure of expected future house-price inflation-rates exists from which to glean the division of expected housing returns between "dividends" and expected capital gains. Also, a series on the recent volatility of individual house prices is not readily available. Finally, measurement of the costs to defaulters and the losses of lenders/insurers when default occurs is far less straight-forward than is the case when call occurs or interest-rate caps are reached. (Here, an analogy can be drawn to the difficulties encountered in pricing the bankrupcy risk of firms.)

Household Formation and Home Ownership: The Impacts of Demographics andTaxes

This paper summarizes the impact of economic, social and demographic variables on household formations and home ownership in the 1960-85 period and uses this knowledge to forecast household formations, and their split between owners and renters, through the year 2000. High and low growth forecasts are reported, both with and without enactment of the Tax Reform Act of 1986. The forecasts are compared with those of others. Net household formations are expected to be robust through 1990 (above 1 1/2 million per year), but to tail off sharply in the 1990s (down to 1 million by 2000). Home ownership should rise slightly in the 1990s.

Tax Reform, Interest Rates and Capital Allocation

The impacts of four major tax reform proposals on the level of interest rates and the allocation of the American capital stock are derived. The four plans are Bradley-Gephardt, Kemp-Kasten, Treasury I and Treasury II. The allocation is among seven types of nonresidential capital, rental housing, and owner occupied housing held by households in five different income classes.The inflation-neutrality of the four plans as also deduced.

Rental Adjustment & Valuation of Real Estate in Overbuilt Markets: Fundamental vs. Reported Office Market Values in Sydney Australia

Real estate markets are periodically plagued by excess supply, rent concessions and few arms-length transactions. During such periods, valuation is problematic. The model presented here requires the forecasts of future vacancy rates, and equilibrium and actual rental rates. Vacancy rate forecasts of market participants are obtained, the equilibrium rental rate is specified as the cost of capital, and a rental adjustment equation is estimated in which real effective Sydney office market rents are related to gaps between both natural and actual vacancy rates and equilibrium and actual real effective rental rates. Value estimates (relative to replacement cost) for 1992, including that for above-market leases, are computed and the sensitivity to key assumptions is shown. Value/replacement-cost calculations are then made for the entire 1985-92 period and contrasted with comparable estimates implicit in data published by BOMA and JLW, two prominent Australian real estate sources. Lastly, the ratios of real effective rents to equilibrium rents and value to replacement cost are projected for the 1993-2006 period.

Mortgage Revenue Bonds: Tax Exemption with a Vengeance

This paper presents calculations of the impacts of two levels of mortgage revenue bonds (MRBs) on: (1) yields on home mortgages, tax-exempt bonds and taxable bonds, (2) the allocation of the American fixed capital stock among residential (by three tax brackets), business, and state and local capital, (3) the productivity of this aggregate stock, and (4) the federal deficit. The levels of MRBs analyzed are $40 billion and the maxi-mum permitted by the realities of the market place. The latter is estimated to be$440 billion or over half of regular home mortgages outstanding. Limited levels of MRBs directed solely at "lower" income housing would not have any clear impact on productivity. An unlimited volume would generate an estimated annual productivity loss of $3 billion. Assuming a 4 percent discount rate, the present value of this stream is$75 billion.