The Wagner Group after Prigozhin

This short article provides an overview of developments around the Wagner mutiny, focusing on its role in Russia’s political regime and the state's efforts to regain control in the aftermath of the mutiny

Russia's State-Sponsored Killers: The Wagner Group

The importance of irregular military companies has been increasing for Russia since it began its war against Ukraine in 2014/15. These military companies act in coordination with the Russian Ministry of Defense, the Federal Security Service (FSB), the foreign intelligence service, and the presidential administration. Russia’s mercenaries practice exterminatory warfare, and operate as parallel or shadow armies, which can rarely be held accountable

Safe zone for Syria: mitigating the humanitarian crisis

The protection of civilians remains an urgent task in Syria. Mass atrocities may resume if the political impasse is not overcome. While the government’s allies have gained significant ground with the fall of Aleppo, those who remain in opposition areas, and the governorate of Idlib in particular, face an immediate risk of mass-scale assault. In these areas, targeted aerial attacks on civilian neighbourhoods and infrastructure persist notwithstanding the present ceasefire. A no-fly zone exempting the country’s IS-controlled east is the only effective means of preventing a military resolution of the conflict, which may result in mass atrocities. Given that all parties to the war have continuously violated the provisions of international humanitarian law, none of these actors should be entrusted with the task of preventing atrocities on the ground. While a conflict of interests is likely to erupt between Russia, Hezbollah and Iran as for their respective roles in Syria’s political future, neither of these forces could secure that a renewed escalation of violence is prevented. The mission of the UN Special Envoy de Mistura can regain traction if supported by a new UN Security Council resolution and by offering to opposition forces and Russia as the main guarantor behind the Syrian government to freeze the military status quo through UN troops. The unprecedented scale of displacement has created a high dependency on aid, yet aid distribution has strongly privileged areas under government control. Pull-effects of populations towards those areas where aid is accessible have been the result. The presence of UN troops would not only safeguard safe return by those displaced, but it could also help ensuring a readjustment of imbalances in aid. Small-scale safe zones could prompt unpredictable mass movement towards these zones, which would further enhance IDPs vulnerability to attack. Equally, small-scale safe zones would neither resolve the hardships of forced displacement nor would they protect millions of civilians at risk from attack throughout the country

Investigation of the dynamics of the North Water polynya for 1996-2010 using satellite data

The North Water polynya (NOW) forms recurrently between Ellesmere Island and northwest Greenland and is one of the largest and therefore most important polynyas in the northern hemisphere. It is considered to have a huge impact on atmospheric, biological and ocean processes. An investigation of polynya dynamics between 1996 and 2009/2010 has been performed using sea ice concentration (SIC) products from the passive microwave sensors SSM/I and AMSR-E. From SIC data we derived the total polynya area (POLA, SIC threshold of <70%), and the open water area (OWA). In June the mean POLA of the NOW reaches its maximum with ca. 101000 km2 (SSM/I) and 79000 km2 (AMSR-E), while the mean OWA has values of 81000 km2 (SSM/I) and 73000 km2 (AMSR-E), respectively. The number of days without the occurrence of the NOW decreases slightly during the period 1996-2010. The pattern of ice formation and decay shows a tendency to earlier melt of sea ice in the northern Baffin Bay in summer compared to previous studies. The dynamics of the ice bridge located at Smith Sound has a large influence on the formation of the NOW. Time series for regions north and south of the bridge are used to identify the ice bridge characteristics associated with its influence on ice export through the Nares Strait. In addition to the long-term study, a case study for a polynya event on 19 March 2009 has been carried out using MODIS data and a surface energy model. MODIS ice surface temperatures and NCEP reanalysis data are used to derive the thermal ice thickness distribution and ice production. A mean ice production of 0.35 cm/h is calculated for this case study

Thin ice thickness distribution and ice production in the Storfjorden Polynya for 2002/2003 - 2011/2012 using MODIS thermalinfrared imagery

Spatial and temporal characteristics of the Storfjorden polynya, which forms regularly in the proximity of the islands Spitsbergen, Barentsøya and Edgeøya in the Svalbard archipelago under the influence of strong north-easterly winds, have been investigated for the period 2002/2003 to 2011/2012 using thermal infrared satellite imagery. Thin ice thicknesses were calculated from MODIS ice surface temperatures, combined with ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis atmospheric data in an energy balance model. Based on calculated thin ice thicknesses, associated quantities like polynya area and total ice production were derived and compared to previous remote sensing and modelling studies. It appears that the sea ice in the Storfjorden area shows signs of a delayed fall freeze-up over the 10 year-period, with an increasing frequency of large polynya events until the end of December. Average ice production in the fjord is estimated with 19.9+-3.9 km3 and is therefore slightly lower compared to previously calculated values by other authors. Nevertheless it underlines the importance of this relatively small coastal polynya system considering its contribution to the cold halocline layer through salt release during ice formation processes. Application of a simple cloud coverage-correction scheme yielded reasonable adjustments for the polynya area and accumulated ice production, while some open questions originating from inherent cloud effects and the applied parametrizations in the polynya area retrieval have to be addressed in future studies

Thin ice thickness distribution and ice production in the North Water and Laptev Sea polynya regions using MODIS thermal infrared imagery

We present investigations of Arctic polynya dynamics for the period 2002/2003 to 2011/2012. Thin ice thicknesses were calculated from MODIS ice surface temperatures, combined with ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis atmospheric data in an energy balance model. Regions of interest include the North Water Polynya, located between Ellesmere Island (Canada) and Greenland, and the Laptev Sea flaw polynyas. Based on calculated thin ice thicknesses, associated quantities like polynya area and total ice production were derived for all regarded regions and compared to recent studies using passive microwave remote sensing data. Calculated ice production reaches mean values of 223 km3 for the North Water Polynya and 79 km3 for the Laptev Sea. They underline the importance of the two coastal polynya systems in the context of the Arctic sea ice budget, although their individual contribution seems to be overestimated in other satellite-based studies. For both regions, obtained polynya areas and ice production clearly exceeded the corresponding values from passive microwave studies, despite a good agreement in the overall seasonal development. Possible reasons include a hidden effect of undetected clouds and the applied parametrizations in the polynya area retrieval. The application of a simple cloud coverage-correction scheme yielded reasonable adjustments for the polynya area and accumulated ice production, while open questions originating from inherent cloud effects have to be addressed in future studies. Noticeably, the sea ice cover in both regarded polynya regions shows signs of a delayed fall freeze-up over the 10 year-period