Precursor Analysis for Offshore Oil and Gas Drilling: From Prescriptive to Risk-Informed Regulation

The Oil Spill Commission’s chartered mission—to “develop options to guard against … any oil spills associated with offshore drilling in the future” (National Commission 2010)—presents a major challenge: how to reduce the risk of low-frequency oil spill events, and especially high-consequence events like the Deepwater Horizon accident, when historical experience contains few oil spills of material scale and none approaching the significance of the Deepwater Horizon. In this paper, we consider precursor analysis as an answer to this challenge, addressing first its development and use in nuclear reactor regulation and then its applicability to offshore oil and gas drilling. We find that the nature of offshore drilling risks, the operating information obtainable by the regulator, and the learning curve provided by 30 years of nuclear experience make precursor analysis a promising option available to the U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement (BOEMRE) to bring cost-effective, risk-informed oversight to bear on the threat of catastrophic oil spills.catastrophic oil spills, quantitative risk analysis, risk-informed regulation

Exchange Rate and Income Effects on South Korean Exports: The US Case

This paper analyzes econometrically the effects of direct and cross exchange rates as well as US income and Korean supply developments on the volume of Korean exports to the US. The results suggest that US demand has been the most important factor in the growth of Korean exports to the US in recent years. However, direct exchange rate effects are also important; the estimates suggest that for 1989-90, a yearly 10% real appreciation of the won against the dollar would have lowered export volume by about 10% per year relative to a baseline case. Cross exchange rate effects run counter to expectations

What Matters More for Economic Development, the Amount of Funding or the Number of Projects Funded? Evidence from the Community Development Financial Investment Fund

Governments try to attract entrepreneurs to specific areas by providing incentives to new businesses that locate within their jurisdiction. However, there is a debate over how best to allocate these funds. Using establishment-level data from the National Establishment Time Series (NETS) database for California, and data on the location of disbursements from the Community Development Financial Institutions (CDFI) and New Market Tax Credit (NMTC) programs, we consider the effectiveness of these two programs in attracting new businesses to disadvantaged areas. Investors are eligible to receive funding through these programs if the census tract where they are located has a median family income less than or equal to 80% of the state’s median family income. Using this plausibly exogenous eligibility threshold, we find that higher levels of funding per project through the NMTC program result in an increase in the number of new establishments in that area. However, we find that the number of NMTC projects funded has no effect on attracting new firms to eligible tracts, and there is little evidence of a consistent effect of the CDFI program. The amounts of funding through the CDFI program are relatively small, though more projects were funded through this program than the NMTC. Thus, our findings suggest that the amount of funding allocated to these areas matters more for economic development than does the number of projects funded. In addition, we find that there are heterogenous effects with regard to the impact of these programs, specifically across different firm sizes and industries, suggesting that these policies may cause firms to reallocate and sort across census tracts

Soil carbon storage and sequestration in Vermont Agriculture

In 2021, The State of Soil Health (SOSH) project measured indicators of soil health on 221 farm fields across the state of Vermont through a collaborative effort among many organizations. Soil carbon stocks to 30 cm depth were assessed on 191 of those fields. In this brief we share a summary of this new soil carbon stock data alongside data from a national assessment of soil carbon stocks performed by the NRCS from 2010 and highlight its relevance to current policy conversations within the state of Vermont. Key Ideas The protection of existing soil carbon stocks and support for increased carbon sequestration align with both environmental and agricultural goals. A collaborative effort to collect and share soil health information in 2021 provides needed state scale data on soil health and soil carbon in Vermont’s agricultural landscapes. Northeastern soils and climate are naturally conducive to high levels of soil carbon. When compared regionally and nationally, Vermont’s agricultural soil carbon levels are high. An average of 86 MT carbon per hectare and 4.3% organic matter was observed. A wide range in soil health scores and soil carbon levels observed in soil samples showed both that some fields have high levels of carbon storage, and many fields had low carbon levels indicating there are opportunities to further sink more carbon. Long term studies in Vermont have documented agricultural soil carbon sequestration rates at between 0.39 and 6.43 MT Carbon per hectare per year. That’s equivalent to a range of 1.4 to 23.6 MT CO2 per hectare per year. Increases in soil carbon are possible on Vermont farms, and can complement other strategies to reduce concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gasses. The permanence of soil carbon in our region is linked to agricultural economics, farmer capacity and capability. Permanence can be addressed in part through support of Extension technical assistance, policy and conservation incentive program design. Policy tools can help protect the high soil carbon stocks in Vermont. Incentives to maintain high levels of soil carbon for farmers, such as cost-shares or payment- for-ecosystem services programs, should be considered by policy makers. Additional research on common and innovative soil management strategies and their influence on soil carbon sequestration in Vermont agriculture is needed. Soil carbon changes are only one part of the whole farm carbon balance, and more research is needed to assess how soil carbon changes influence climate change mitigation compared to other interventions on farms in Vermont

A protocol for a systematic review of clinical guidelines and published systematic reviews on the early detection of oral cancer

Background: The predicted increase in incidence of oral cavity cancer (OCC) coupled with high mortality and poor prognosis – particularly when diagnosed at a late/advanced stage – highlights the need for prevention and early detection/screening to reverse these trends. Dental healthcare professionals in primary care settings have a pivotal role in this effort. Aim: The aim of this protocol is to detail the process for assessing the evidence for the best practice and methods of early detection/screening for OCC in primary care dental settings by undertaking a systematic review of global clinical guidelines and published systematic reviews. Method: Searches for clinical guidelines and systematic reviews will be conducted in the following databases: Cochrane library, Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online (Ovid), Excerpta Medical dataBASE, PubMed, Turning Research into Practice, SCOPUS and Web of Science Core Collection. Our search will extend to include Google Scholar and international professional organizations/associations websites. In addition, we will handsearch the bibliographies and undertake citation searches of the selected papers. Quality appraisal will be undertaken using the Appraisal of Guidelines for Research and Evaluation version II instrument for the clinical guidelines and both A MeaSurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews and Risk of Bias in Systematic Reviews tools for the systematic reviews. A narrative synthesis approach will be used to assess the evidence of extracted data, primarily taking account of quality appraisal and recency of publication. Discussion: The synthesis of evidence will determine best practice for OCC early detection/screening by primary care dental healthcare professionals and will evaluate the relationship between clinical guidelines and the evidence base available from systematic reviews in this area

Open Textbooks in an Introductory Sociology Course in Canada: Student Views and Completion Rates

Open educational resources (OER), including open textbooks, are free, adaptable learning resources. The integration of these materials in place of commercial textbooks allows for considerable financial savings for students and creates opportunities for more active and engaged learning. The growing interest in the use of OER at a Western Canadian university led to the chance to survey students for their feedback on using OER instead of traditional commercial textbooks. This paper focuses on the views of students in an introductory sociology course for which an instructor adopted an open textbook and otherwise left the course unchanged from when it was taught with a traditional textbook. In addition, completion rates for the offerings with the open textbook are compared to previous offerings with a commercial textbook

The burden of proof: the current state of atrial fibrillation prevention and treatment trials

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is an age-related arrhythmia of enormous socioeconomic significance. In recent years, our understanding of the basic mechanisms that initiate and perpetuate AF has evolved rapidly, catheter ablation of AF has progressed from concept to reality, and recent studies suggest lifestyle modification may help prevent AF recurrence. Emerging developments in genetics, imaging, and informatics also present new opportunities for personalized care. However, considerable challenges remain. These include a paucity of studies examining AF prevention, modest efficacy of existing antiarrhythmic therapies, diverse ablation technologies and practice, and limited evidence to guide management of high-risk patients with multiple comorbidities. Studies examining the long-term effects of AF catheter ablation on morbidity and mortality outcomes are not yet completed. In many ways, further progress in the field is heavily contingent on the feasibility, capacity, and efficiency of clinical trials to incorporate the rapidly evolving knowledge base and to provide substantive evidence for novel AF therapeutic strategies. This review outlines the current state of AF prevention and treatment trials, including the foreseeable challenges, as discussed by a unique forum of clinical trialists, scientists, and regulatory representatives in a session endorsed by the Heart Rhythm Society at the 12th Global CardioVascular Clinical Trialists Forum in Washington, DC, December 3–5, 2015

The Effect of Statin Therapy on Heart Failure Events: A Collaborative Meta-Analysis of Unpublished Data from Major Randomized Trials

Aims: The effect of statins on risk of heart failure (HF) hospitalization and HF death remains uncertain. We aimed to establish whether statins reduce major HF events. Methods and results: We searched Medline, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials for randomized controlled endpoint statin trials from 1994 to 2014. Collaborating trialists provided unpublished data from adverse event reports. We included primary- and secondary-prevention statin trials with \u3e1000 participants followed for \u3e1 year. Outcomes consisted of first non-fatal HF hospitalization, HF death and a composite of first non-fatal HF hospitalization or HF death. HF events occurring(MI) were excluded. We calculated risk ratios (RR) with fixed-effects meta-analyses. In up to 17 trials with 132 538 participants conducted over 4.3 [weighted standard deviation (SD) 1.4] years, statin therapy reduced LDL-cholesterol by 0.97 mmol/L (weighted SD 0.38 mmol/L). Statins reduced the numbers of patients experiencing non-fatal HF hospitalization (1344/66 238 vs. 1498/66 330; RR 0.90, 95% confidence interval, CI 0.84–0.97) and the composite HF outcome (1234/57 734 vs. 1344/57 836; RR 0.92, 95% CI 0.85–0.99) but not HF death (213/57 734 vs. 220/57 836; RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.80–1.17). The effect of statins on first non-fatal HF hospitalization was similar whether this was preceded by MI (RR 0.87, 95% CI 0.68–1.11) or not (RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.84–0.98). Conclusion: In primary- and secondary-prevention trials, statins modestly reduced the risks of non-fatal HF hospitalization and a composite of non-fatal HF hospitalization and HF death with no demonstrable difference in risk reduction between those who suffered an MI or not

Interleukin-27 regulates the function of the gastrointestinal epithelial barrier in a human tissue derived organoid model

Funding: This research was funded by CICRA (CICRA: better lives for children with crohns and colitis. Available online: https://www.cicra.org (last accessed on 23 January 2022); Ph.D. studentship to DBP) and an NHS Grampian Endowment project grant. Acknowledgments: We wish to acknowledge the Grampian Tissue Biorepository for assistance in tissue preparation. Organoids were stored at −80 ◦C at the University of Aberdeen. Graphical abstract was created using Biorender with a licence for use in publication (agreement number AD22YOD1N6). DBP now at Lydia Becker Institute of Immunology and Inflammation and Wellcome Centre for Cell-Matrix Research, University of Manchester, UKPeer reviewedPublisher PD

Human Innate Mycobacterium tuberculosis–Reactive αβTCR+ Thymocytes

The control of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection is heavily dependent on the adaptive Th1 cellular immune response. Paradoxically, optimal priming of the Th1 response requires activation of priming dendritic cells with Th1 cytokine IFN-γ. At present, the innate cellular mechanisms required for the generation of an optimal Th1 T cell response remain poorly characterized. We hypothesized that innate Mtb-reactive T cells provide an early source of IFN-γ to fully activate Mtb-exposed dendritic cells. Here, we report the identification of a novel population of Mtb-reactive CD4− αβTCR+ innate thymocytes. These cells are present at high frequencies, respond to Mtb-infected cells by producing IFN-γ directly ex vivo, and display characteristics of effector memory T cells. This novel innate population of Mtb-reactive T cells will drive further investigation into the role of these cells in the containment of Mtb following infectious exposure. Furthermore, this is the first demonstration of a human innate pathogen-specific αβTCR+ T cell and is likely to inspire further investigation into innate T cells recognizing other important human pathogens