Imputation strategies for missing binary outcomes in cluster randomized trials

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Attrition, which leads to missing data, is a common problem in cluster randomized trials (CRTs), where groups of patients rather than individuals are randomized. Standard multiple imputation (MI) strategies may not be appropriate to impute missing data from CRTs since they assume independent data. In this paper, under the assumption of missing completely at random and covariate dependent missing, we compared six MI strategies which account for the intra-cluster correlation for missing binary outcomes in CRTs with the standard imputation strategies and complete case analysis approach using a simulation study.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>We considered three within-cluster and three across-cluster MI strategies for missing binary outcomes in CRTs. The three within-cluster MI strategies are logistic regression method, propensity score method, and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, which apply standard MI strategies within each cluster. The three across-cluster MI strategies are propensity score method, random-effects (RE) logistic regression approach, and logistic regression with cluster as a fixed effect. Based on the community hypertension assessment trial (CHAT) which has complete data, we designed a simulation study to investigate the performance of above MI strategies.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The estimated treatment effect and its 95% confidence interval (CI) from generalized estimating equations (GEE) model based on the CHAT complete dataset are 1.14 (0.76 1.70). When 30% of binary outcome are missing completely at random, a simulation study shows that the estimated treatment effects and the corresponding 95% CIs from GEE model are 1.15 (0.76 1.75) if complete case analysis is used, 1.12 (0.72 1.73) if within-cluster MCMC method is used, 1.21 (0.80 1.81) if across-cluster RE logistic regression is used, and 1.16 (0.82 1.64) if standard logistic regression which does not account for clustering is used.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>When the percentage of missing data is low or intra-cluster correlation coefficient is small, different approaches for handling missing binary outcome data generate quite similar results. When the percentage of missing data is large, standard MI strategies, which do not take into account the intra-cluster correlation, underestimate the variance of the treatment effect. Within-cluster and across-cluster MI strategies (except for random-effects logistic regression MI strategy), which take the intra-cluster correlation into account, seem to be more appropriate to handle the missing outcome from CRTs. Under the same imputation strategy and percentage of missingness, the estimates of the treatment effect from GEE and RE logistic regression models are similar.</p

A prospective cohort study of surgical treatment for back pain with degenerated discs; study protocol

BACKGROUND: The diagnosis of discogenic back pain often leads to spinal fusion surgery and may partly explain the recent rapid increase in lumbar fusion operations in the United States. Little is known about how patients undergoing lumbar fusion compare in preoperative physical and psychological function to patients who have degenerative discs, but receive only non-surgical care. METHODS: Our group is implementing a multi-center prospective cohort study to compare patients with presumed discogenic pain who undergo lumbar fusion with those who have non-surgical care. We identify patients with predominant low back pain lasting at least six months, one or two-level disc degeneration confirmed by imaging, and a normal neurological exam. Patients are classified as surgical or non-surgical based on the treatment they receive during the six months following study enrollment. RESULTS: Three hundred patients discogenic low back pain will be followed in a prospective cohort study for two years. The primary outcome measure is the Modified Roland-Morris Disability Questionnaire at 24-months. We also evaluate several other dimensions of outcome, including pain, functional status, psychological distress, general well-being, and role disability. CONCLUSION: The primary aim of this prospective cohort study is to better define the outcomes of lumbar fusion for discogenic back pain as it is practiced in the United States. We additionally aim to identify characteristics that result in better patient selection for surgery. Potential predictors include demographics, work and disability compensation status, initial symptom severity and duration, imaging results, functional status, and psychological distress

Towards standardized measurement of adverse events in spine surgery: conceptual model and pilot evaluation

BACKGROUND: Independent of efficacy, information on safety of surgical procedures is essential for informed choices. We seek to develop standardized methodology for describing the safety of spinal operations and apply these methods to study lumbar surgery. We present a conceptual model for evaluating the safety of spine surgery and describe development of tools to measure principal components of this model: (1) specifying outcome by explicit criteria for adverse event definition, mode of ascertainment, cause, severity, or preventability, and (2) quantitatively measuring predictors such as patient factors, comorbidity, severity of degenerative spine disease, and invasiveness of spine surgery. METHODS: We created operational definitions for 176 adverse occurrences and established multiple mechanisms for reporting them. We developed new methods to quantify the severity of adverse occurrences, degeneration of lumbar spine, and invasiveness of spinal procedures. Using kappa statistics and intra-class correlation coefficients, we assessed agreement for the following: four reviewers independently coding etiology, preventability, and severity for 141 adverse occurrences, two observers coding lumbar spine degenerative changes in 10 selected cases, and two researchers coding invasiveness of surgery for 50 initial cases. RESULTS: During the first six months of prospective surveillance, rigorous daily medical record reviews identified 92.6% of the adverse occurrences we recorded, and voluntary reports by providers identified 38.5% (surgeons reported 18.3%, inpatient rounding team reported 23.1%, and conferences discussed 6.1%). Trained observers had fair agreement in classifying etiology of 141 adverse occurrences into 18 categories (kappa = 0.35), but agreement was substantial (kappa ≥ 0.61) for 4 specific categories: technical error, failure in communication, systems failure, and no error. Preventability assessment had moderate agreement (mean weighted kappa = 0.44). Adverse occurrence severity rating had fair agreement (mean weighted kappa = 0.33) when using a scale based on the JCAHO Sentinel Event Policy, but agreement was substantial for severity ratings on a new 11-point numerical severity scale (ICC = 0.74). There was excellent inter-rater agreement for a lumbar degenerative disease severity score (ICC = 0.98) and an index of surgery invasiveness (ICC = 0.99). CONCLUSION: Composite measures of disease severity and surgery invasiveness may allow development of risk-adjusted predictive models for adverse events in spine surgery. Standard measures of adverse events and risk adjustment may also facilitate post-marketing surveillance of spinal devices, effectiveness research, and quality improvement

Transgenic Mice Over-Expressing ET-1 in the Endothelial Cells Develop Systemic Hypertension with Altered Vascular Reactivity

Endothelin-1 (ET-1) is a potent vasoconstrictor involved in the regulation of vascular tone and implicated in hypertension. However, the role of small blood vessels endothelial ET-1 in hypertension remains unclear. The present study investigated the effect of chronic over-expression of endothelial ET-1 on arterial blood pressure and vascular reactivity using transgenic mice approach. Transgenic mice (TET-1) with endothelial ET-1 over-expression showed increased in ET-1 level in the endothelial cells of small pulmonary blood vessels. Although TET-1 mice appeared normal, they developed mild hypertension which was normalized by the ETA receptor (BQ123) but not by ETB receptor (BQ788) antagonist. Tail-cuff measurements showed a significant elevation of systolic and mean blood pressure in conscious TET-1 mice. The mice also exhibited left ventricular hypertrophy and left axis deviation in electrocardiogram, suggesting an increased peripheral resistance. The ionic concentrations in the urine and serum were normal in 8-week old TET-1 mice, indicating that the systemic hypertension was independent of renal function, although, higher serum urea levels suggested the occurrence of kidney dysfunction. The vascular reactivity of the aorta and the mesenteric artery was altered in the TET-1 mice indicating that chronic endothelial ET-1 up-regulation leads to vascular tone imbalance in both conduit and resistance arteries. These findings provide evidence for the role of spatial expression of ET-1 in the endothelium contributing to mild hypertension was mediated by ETA receptors. The results also suggest that chronic endothelial ET-1 over-expression affects both cardiac and vascular functions, which, at least in part, causes blood pressure elevation

Tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes predict for outcome in HPV-positive oropharyngeal cancer

Background: Human papillomavirus (HPV)-positive oropharyngeal cancer (OPSCC) is associated with improved survival compared with HPV-negative disease. However, a minority of HPV-positive patients have poor prognosis. Currently, there is no generally accepted strategy for identifying these patients.Methods: We retrospectively analysed 270 consecutively treated OPSCC patients from three centres for effects of clinical, pathological, immunological, and molecular features on disease mortality. We used Cox regression to examine associations between factors and OPSCC death, and developed a prognostic model for 3-year mortality using logistic regression analysis.Results: Patients with HPV-positive tumours showed improved survival (hazard ratio (HR), 0.33 (0.21–0.53)). High levels of tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) stratified HPV-positive patients into high-risk and low-risk groups (3-year survival; HPV-positive/TILhigh=96%, HPV-positive/TILlow=59%). Survival of HPV-positive/TILlow patients did not differ from HPV-negative patients (HR, 1.01; P=0.98). We developed a prognostic model for HPV-positive tumours using a ‘training’ cohort from one centre; the combination of TIL levels, heavy smoking, and T-stage were significant (AUROC=0·87). This model was validated on patients from the other centres (detection rate 67%; false-positive rate 5.6%; AUROC=0·82).Interpretation: Our data suggest that an immune response, reflected by TIL levels in the primary tumour, has an important role in the improved survival seen in most HPV-positive patients, and is relevant for the clinical evaluation of HPV-positive OPSCC