A Hybrid Intelligent Early Warning System for Predicting Economic Crises: The Case of China

This paper combines artificial neural networks (ANN), fuzzy optimization and time-series econometric models in one unified framework to form a hybrid intelligent early warning system (EWS) for predicting economic crises. Using quarterly data on 12 macroeconomic and financial variables for the Chinese economy during 1999 and 2008, the paper finds that the hybrid model possesses strong predictive power and the likelihood of economic crises in China during 2009 and 2010 remains high.Computational intelligence; artificial neural networks; fuzzy optimization; early warning system; economic crises

Magnetic properties of a spin-3 Chromium condensate

We study the ground state properties of a spin-3 Cr condensate subject to an external magnetic field by numerically solving the Gross-Piteavskii equations. We show that the widely adopted single-mode approximation is invalid under a finite magnetic field. In particular, a phase separation like behavior may be induced by the magnetic field. We also point out the possible origin of the phase separation phenomenon.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figure