Money-output Granger causality revisited: An empirical analysis of EU countries

In this paper, the evidence collected in the large literature on testing for Granger-causality from money to output is revisited. Using a broad data base of 14 EU-countries plus Canada, the US and Japan, and quarterly data from the mid 60s to the mid 90s, a number of hypotheses from this literature is evaluated. It is found that very few general conclusions can be sustained. For instance, in most countries it is not the case that the use of data in levels creates a bias in favour of finding Granger-causality effects of money on output compared to using differences. Neither does the significance of money lags decline when increasing the number of variables included in the model. What appears to be robust, though, is that allowing for asymmetries clearly increases the likelihood of finding significant causality effects. Based on the Grangercausality test results, a number of country groups are obtained using cluster analysis, which are characterised by a similar behaviour with respect to the money-output relation. --Money-Output Causality,Granger Causality,EU countries

Mass Attidudes Toward Financial Crisis and Economic Reform in Korea

This paper gives an account of the financial crisis that took place in Korea from the point of view of the Korean population using survey data collected in 1998 and 1999. Although both, internal and external factors were blamed as causes, domestic factors were considered to be of greater importance. After identifying respondents as supporting either market-based or statebased reform strategies using factor analysis, various determinants of these alternative views are being analyzed within the framework of regression models. A particularly interesting result is that, contrary to theoretical assumptions and empirical evidence on other regions, it is political ideology and not individual economic determinants that helps to explain the respondents’ attitudes towards reform strategies in Korea.South Korea, financial crisis, public opinion, economic reform strategies institution

Knowledge and Attitude Towards European Monetary Union

The European Monetary Union (EMU) has been the subject of fierce controversies both among professional economists and ordinary people. This paper analyses the association between the degree of information of ordinary people and their opinion on EMU. In this context, we are concerned with basic information and not knowledge based on academic research. Usually, questionnaires shy away from including question that test the knowledge of probands on specific issues. However, there exists a European-wide survey, Eurobarometer 39 (1993), that includes some questions which can help to distinguish respondents according to their level of knowledge on European Union. In a first step, a knowledge index is computed from the four knowledge questions given in the survey. Then this indicator is utilised in a cross-country comparison and it is shown to which extent its average varies among the original 12 EU-members. In a further analysis, the bivariate relationship of the knowledge index with attitudes towards EMU is investigated. It is found that better informed respondents are relatively more in favour of EMU. This result is strengthened by the outcome of a bivariate correspondence analysis. To assess the robustness of the positive association between the degree of knowledge and attitude towards EMU, the analysis is repeated in the framework of a multivariate regression model. Again the positive association between information about EU and attitude towards EMU holds. At the end of the paper, a policy conclusion is put forward arguing that by raising the level of EU knowledge people's opinion towards further monetary integration could be influenced positively.European Monetary Union Public Opinion Information

On Democratization and Economic Conditions in Eastern Europe

The paper empirically investigates whether people's attitude towards the progress in political transformation in Eastern Europe are influenced by economic factors. Thereby it addresses the question of independence between economic and political system. Using a large panel data set, containing about 68000 observations on individuals from 19 countries over 6 years, this question is analyzed in the framework of an appropriately adjusted ordered logit model. It is found that both subjective and objective personal economic experiences, such as the development of the financial situation of the household or its position in the income distribution, as well as objective aggregate data, such as inflation or the private sector share, have a significant influence on people's opinion with respect to progress in democratization. Thus, studies on transition countries should take into account that there appear to be important spill-overs from people's economic experience to their assessment of progress in transforming the political system.Eastern Europe, Political Economy, Democracy, Transformation

The demand for money in Austria

In this paper, the demand for real money M1, M2, and M3 is estimated for Austria. The modelling takes place within the framework of a small vector autoregression. To estimate the demand for money, two-equation error-correction models are constructed, which contain the short-run dynamics and the long-run economic equilibrium. It is found that a stable money demand exists for all monetary aggregates. The long-run equilibrium of M1, after accounting for a structural break in 1979, can be characterised as a classical type of money demand, with no interest rate effects and a unity elasticity of real GDP. In the case of M2 and M3, we find a unit coefficient on income and a significantly negative influence of a long-term interest rate. The statistical properties of the estimated short-run money demand equations – considering insample and out-of-sample (35 observations) tests – are generally very good. --monetary economics,money demand,Austria

Estimating a European Demand for Money

European Monetary Union will come into existence in 1999. This raises questions related to the monetary policy targets that will be adopted by the European Central Bank (ECB). For both likely candidates, targeting a money aggregate or an inflation target, the existence of a stable money demand function at a European level is important. In this paper estimates of such a European money demand for narrow and broad money for the actual 11 EMU countries based on quarterly aggregate data from 1964 to 1994 are presented. It is argued that statistically satisfactory and economically interpretable functions can be found. The robustness of the results is further evaluated using alternative country groups. Moreover, the estimated models appear to be stable over a period of 20 quarters. This raises the hopes that the ECB will face a stable money demand and be able - at least for a certain time - to use past aggregate data for policy purposes.European Money Demand, European Monetary Union, Monetary Policy

Estimating a European demand for money

European Monetary Union will come into existence in 1999. This raises questions related to the monetary policy targets that will be adopted by the European Central Bank (ECB). For both likely candidates, targeting a money aggregate or an inflation target, the existence of a stable money demand function at a European level is important. In this paper estimates of such a European money demand for narrow and broad money for the actual 11 EMU countries based on quarterly aggregate data from 1964 to 1994 are presented. It is argued that statistically satisfactory and economically interpretable functions can be found. The robustness of the results is further evaluated using alternative country groups. Moreover, the estimated models appear to be stable over a period of 20 quarters. This raises the hopes that the ECB will face a stable money demand and be able - at least for a certain time - to use past aggregate data for policy purposes. --European Money Demand,Monetary Policy,European Monetary Union

Happiness in Eastern Europe

This paper analyses the determinants of happiness in seven Eastern European transition countries during the early phase of economic transition. The analysis of representative survey data in an ordered logit model shows that those core socio-demographic and economic variables known to be relevant from studies on the US and Western European countries have a similar impact on happiness in Eastern Europe. In addition, rural dwellers and church goers experience greater life-satisfaction. Aggregate unemployment can explain more of the crosscountry variation in happiness than income per capita.eastern europe, transition countries, economic transition, happiness, life-satisfaction, unemployment

The Demand For Money In Austria

In this paper, the demand for real money M1, M2 and M3 is estimated for Austria. The modelling takes place within the framework of a small vector autoregression. To estimate the demand for money, two-equation error-correction models are constructed, which contain the short-run dynamics and the long-run economic equilibrium. It is found that a stable money demand exists for all monetary aggregates. The long-run equilibrium of M1, after accounting for a structural break in 1979, can be characterised as a classical type of money demand, with no interest rate effects and a unity elasticity of real GDP. In the case of M2 and M3, we find a unit coefficient on income and a significantly negative influence of an interest rate. The statistical properties of the estimated short-run money demand equations - considering in-sample and out-of-sample (35 observations) tests - are generally very good.money demand monetary economics Austria monetary policy

Industry Effects of Monetary Policy in Germany

This paper is on monetary policy transmission. First, it asks the question whether industries are affected differently by monetary policy shocks. Here both output and price effects are compared. Second, some industry characteristics are explored which may help to understand the existence of asymmetric effects. Third, since industries are regionally clustered, possible regional effects are being discussed as well. The analysis takes place within a VAR framework, and monthly data on West- German industries and are being employed. The results indicate that about one half of German industries show significantly different reactions compared to the aggregate. These differences can be partially explained by varying capital-output-ratios, export-orientation and subsidies. Finally it is likely, at least in the case of the German Länder, that asymmetric regional effects of monetary policy shocks will occur.monetary policy, monetary transmission, industry effects, VAR, regional effects, Germany