Central Bank Communication in the Financial Crisis: Evidence from a Survey of Financial Market Participants

In this paper, we study whether central bank communication has a positive effect on market participants' perception of central banks' (i) credibility, (ii) unorthodox measures, and (iii) independence. We utilise a survey of more than 500 financial market participants from around the world who answered questions in reference to the Bank of England (BoE), the Bank of Japan (BoJ), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Federal Reserve (Fed). We find that market participants believe that the Fed communicates best, followed by the BoE, ECB, and BoJ. Similar rankings are found on the issues of credibility, satisfaction with unconventional monetary policy, and possible deterioration in independence. Using ordered probit models, we show that central bank communication has a positive effect on how central banks are perceived and understood, as it enhances credibility, increases satisfaction with unorthodox measures, and fosters perceived independence of central banks

Electoral Competition and Endogenous Political Institutions: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Germany

Do established parties change political institutions to disadvantage smaller, non-mainstream parties if the latters' electoral prospects improve? We study this question with a natural experiment from the German federal State of Hesse. The experiment is the abolishment of an explicit electoral threshold (the so called "five percent hurdle") for local elections in 2001 by the Hessian state parliament. The abolishment improved the electoral prospects of smaller parties at local elections, but local politicians from mainstream parties had the ability to adjust municipal political institutions in such as way as to counteract the increased competitiveness of smaller parties. One such institutional adjustment is to reduce the size of the local council and thereby raise implicit electoral thresholds. Using a dataset that covers all 426 Hessian municipalities over the period 1989-2011, we document with a difference-in-discontinuity design that municipalities where the electoral competitiveness of smaller parties improved more because of the abolishment of the explicit threshold, reduced their council size more. Hence, established parties appear to erect barriers to entry by adjusting political institutions once new political formations become viable electoral alternatives

Mapping Constitutionally Safeguarded Judicial Independence — A Global Survey

De jure judicial independence (JI) is the single most important predictor of de facto JI. In this paper, we describe under what conditions countries are likely to include JI in their constitutions. We describe and analyze both their original choice in this regard as well as change over time using a newly constructed dataset comprised of 100 countries and covering the years between 1950 and 2005. Three results stand out. First, legal origins do have an impact on the likelihood of explicitly anchoring JI in the constitution: countries belonging to the common law tradition are less likely to implement JI in their constitutions (and those with a socialist tradition are more likely to do so). Correspondingly, former British colonies are less likely to address JI explicitly as are states in the Caribbean. Second, religion has a significant impact on whether JI is included in the constitution: societies experiencing a high level of religious fractionalization are not only less likely to anchor JI in their constitutions, but are also less likely to change their constitutions in that direction later on. Finally, Muslim countries are more likely to include mention of JI, whereas Protestant countries are less likely to do so. Third, the distribution of resources within societies has important and largely unexpected effects: a higher percentage of family farms, a wider distribution of education, and a higher percentage of urban dwellers are all connected with a lower likelihood of JI being mentioned in the constitution

Monetary Policy Committee Transparency: Measurement, Determinants, and Economic Effects

This paper studies monetary policy committee transparency (MPCT) based on a new index that measures central bankers' educational and professional backgrounds as disclosed through central bank websites. Based on a novel cross-sectional data set covering 75 central banks, we investigate the determinants of MPCT as well as its economic consequences. We find that past inflation, quality of institutional setup, and extent of Internet use in a country are important determinants of MPCT. MPCT has a robust and significantly negative impact on inflation variability, even after controlling for important macroeconomic variables and institutional transparency, as well as instrumenting MPCT in various ways

The German Public and Its Trust in the ECB: The Role of Knowledge and Information Search

In this paper, we analyse the effects of objective and subjective knowledge about monetary policy, as well as the information search patterns, of German citizens on trust in the ECB. We rely on a unique representative public opinion survey of German households conducted in 2011. We find that subjective and factual knowledge, as well as the desire to be informed, about the ECB foster citizens trust. Specific knowledge about the ECB is more influential than general monetary policy knowledge. Objective knowledge is more important than subjective knowledge. However, an increasing intensity of media usage, especially newspaper reading, has a significantly negative influence on trust. We conclude that the only viable way for the ECB to generate more trust in itself is to spread monetary policy knowledge

Endogenous Constitutions: Politics and Politicians Matter, Economic Outcomes Don’t

We study changes in the form of government as an example of endogenously determined constitutions. For a sample of 202 countries over the period 1950-2006, we find that most changes are relatively small and roughly equally likely to be either in the direction of more parliamentarian or more presidential systems. Based on a fixed effects ordered logit panel data model estimated over the period 1951-2000 for 146 countries, we find that such changes in the constitution can be explained by characteristics of the political system, internal and external political conflicts, and political leaders, whereas economic and socio-demographic variables do not matter

Leaders’ Impact on Public Spending Priorities: The Case of the German Laender

We examine determinants of the composition of public expenditure in the German Laender (states) over the period 1993-2008, as the Laender exhibit a high degree of institutional and political homogeneity and are endowed with extensive fiscal competences. Our prime contribution is an investigation into how political leaders' socioeconomic background influences public spending priorities. Applying sociological theory, we link preferences for the composition of public spending to social status. In contrast to approaches relying on political budget cycles or partisan theory, we find strong and theory-consistent evidence that prime ministers tend to favour fiscal policies supporting the social class in which they are socialised. Governments led by prime ministers from a poor socioeconomic background spend significantly more on social security, education, health, infrastructure, and public safety

Does Arbitration Blossom When State Courts are Bad?

It is often conjectured that non-state dispute resolution blossoms when state courts are not independent or are perceived as low-quality courts. This conjecture implies a substitutive relationship between state and non-state dispute resolution. An alternative hypothesis argues that both the quality and the frequency of use of these two alternative mechanisms are complementary: societies with high-quality state courts would also be able to provide high-quality non-state dispute resolution. This is the first study that puts these hypotheses to an empirical test. It turns out that the lower the perceived quality of state courts, the less frequently conflicting firms resort to them. Second, firms in common-law countries turn away from state courts significantly more often than firms in civil-law countries. This result sheds doubt on the robustness of results generated within the legal traditions literature. Finally, in states that have created the preconditions for arbitration, businesspeople resort significantly more often to state courts. We interpret this as evidence in favor of the complementarity hypothesis

Investigating the Monetary Policy of Central Banks with Assessment Indicators

This paper outlines a new method for using qualitative information to analyze the monetary policy strategy of central banks. Quantitative assessment indicators that are extracted from a central bank's public statements via the balance statistic approach are employed to estimate a Taylor-type rule. This procedure allows to directly capture a policymaker's assessments of macroeconomic variables that are relevant for its decision making process. As an application of the proposed method the monetary policy of the Bundesbank is re-investigated with a new dataset. One distinctive feature of the Bundesbank's strategy consisted of targeting growth in monetary aggregates. The analysis using the proposed method provides evidence that the Bundesbank indeed took into consideration monetary aggregates but also real economic activity and inflation developments in its monetary policy strategy since 1975

The Debt Brake in the Eyes of the German Population

In response to the recent sovereign debt crisis, the member states of the European Union agreed to enact balanced budget rules in their national legislation. However, little is known about the public's opinion of balanced budget rules. To fill this gap, we conducted a survey among 2,000 representatively chosen German citizens. Our findings suggest that 61% of the German population supports the debt brake, whereas only 8% oppose it. However, approval rates differ notably among various subgroups of the population. The debt brake enjoys greater support among high-income earners and among those well-informed about the future costs of deficit spending. People who do not trust politicians would like to see the government's hands tied even more tightly. Opinions about the debt brake also differ markedly across the supporters of different political parties