Community-based trial of screening for Chlamydia trachomatis to prevent pelvic inflammatory disease: the POPI (prevention of pelvic infection) trial.

BACKGROUND: Pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) is common and can lead to tubal factor infertility, ectopic pregnancy or chronic pelvic pain. Despite major UK government investment in the National Chlamydia Screening Programme, evidence of benefit remains controversial. The main aim of this trial was to investigate whether screening and treatment of chlamydial infection reduced the incidence of PID over 12 months. Secondary aims were to conduct exploratory studies of the role of bacterial vaginosis (BV) in the development of PID and of the natural history of chlamydial infection. DESIGN: Randomised controlled trial with follow up after 12 months. SETTING NON-HEALTHCARE: Common rooms and lecture theatres at 20 universities and further education colleges in Greater London. PARTICIPANTS: 2500 sexually active female students were asked to complete a questionnaire on sexual health and provide self-administered vaginal swabs and smears. INTERVENTION: Vaginal swabs from intervention women were tested for chlamydia by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and those infected referred for treatment. Vaginal swabs from control women were stored and analysed after a year. Vaginal smears were Gram stained and analysed for BV. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Incidence of clinical PID over 12 months in intervention and control groups. Possible cases of PID will be identified from questionnaires and record searches. Confirmation of the diagnosis will be done by detailed review of medical records by three independent researchers blind to whether the woman is in intervention or control group. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinical Trials NCT 00115388

Facilitating children's self-concept: A rationale and evaluative study

This study reports on the design and effectiveness of the Exploring Self-Concept program for primary school children using self-concept as the outcome measure. The program aims to provide a procedure that incorporates organisation, elaboration, thinking, and problem-solving strategies and links these to children's multidimensional self-concept. The results of this research support the notion that teachers and guidance counsellors need to establish a nonthreatening framework that allows them to discuss with children a range of relevant issues related to peer pressure, parent relations, self-image, body image, gender bias, media pressure, values and life goals, in a systematic, objective and cooperative manner. Within the paper, notions associated with self-concept maturation, 'crystallisation' of self-concept beliefs, cognitive differentiation and self-concept segmentation are reviewed

Does ursodeoxycholic acid change the proliferation of the colorectal mucosa? A randomized, placebo-controlled study

Background: In animal models ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) showed a chemoprotective effect against colon cancer. To explain this, a reduced proliferation of the colorectal mucosal proliferation was suggested. We, therefore, examined the influence of UDCA on the proliferation of normal colorectal mucosa in humans. Methods: Following endoscopic polypectomy, 20 patients with colorectal adenomas were randomized to receive either UDCA (750 mg/day, n = 10, group A) or placebo (n = 10, group B) for 6 months in a double-blinded way. Colorectal biopsies were sampled before and at the end of the medication by total colonoscopy. Colorectal mucosal proliferation was measured by FACScan analysis of propidium iodine labeling. Serum was sampled, and serum bile acids were analyzed by gas chromatography. Results: The proliferation rates at the end of the study were similar in both groups (median 15.4%; range 12.0-20.9 in group A; median 16.0%, 14.0-20.2 in group B, p = 0.41). Serum lithocholic acid levels at the end of the study were significantly higher in group A (1.3 mumol/l, 0.9-1.8) than in group B (0.7 mumol/l, 0-1.7, p < 0.02), whereas serum deoxycholic acid levels were similar in both groups. Conclusions: In this study, UDCA treatment for 6 months does not seem to induce changes in the proliferative behavior of the colorectal mucosa in patients with adenomas. It seems likely that a putative chemopreventive effect of UDCA in humans is not exerted by a reduction of the colorectal proliferation. Copyright (C) 2003 S. Karger AG, Basel

Tissue eosinophilia and eosinophil degranulation in Riedel's invasive fibrous thyroiditis.

The etiology of Riedel's invasive fibrous thyroiditis (IFT) has remained obscure. This rare disorder has been confused in the past with the more common fibrous variant of Hashimoto's disease. The typical histological features of IFT, in particular the presence of an invasive fibrosclerotic process in conjunction with a prominent chronic inflammatory infiltrate, suggest that the release of fibrogenic cytokines and other factors from these cellular infiltrates may play an important role in the pathogenesis of this condition. Our observations in routinely processed tissue sections obtained from patients with documented IFT of striking tissue eosinophilia led us to hypothesize that eosinophils and their products may play a role in the evolution of this disease. Immunofluorescence staining with affinity-purified polyclonal rabbit antibody directed against human eosinophil granule major basic protein revealed marked tissue eosinophilia and abundant extracellular deposition of major basic protein in all specimens from 16 patients with IFT. By contrast, only occasional eosinophils and no extracellular major basic protein were detected in control thyroid tissues obtained from patients with multinodular goiter, Graves' disease, Hashimoto's disease, and normal thyroid tissue. The presence of marked eosinophil infiltration and extracellular major basic protein deposition in IFT and other associated fibrosclerotic conditions suggests a role for eosinophils and their products in propagating the fibrogenesis seen in IFT

Behavioral ontogeny in larvae and early juveniles of the giant trevally (Caranx ignobilis) (Pisces: Carangidae)

Behavior of young (8−18 mm SL) giant trevally (Caranx ignobilis), a large coral-reef−associated predator, was observed in the laboratory and the ocean. Size was a better predictor of swimming speed and endurance than was age. Critical speed increased with size from 12 to 40 cm/s at 2.7 cm/s for each mm increase in size. Mean scaled critical speed was 19 body lengths/s and was not size related. Swimming speed in the ocean was 4 to 20 cm/s (about half of critical speed) and varied among areas, but within each area, it increased at 2 cm/s for each mm increase in size. Swimming endurance in the laboratory increased from 5 to 40 km at 5 km for each mm increase in size. Vertical distribution changed ontogenetically: larvae swam shallower, but more variably, and then deeper with growth. Two-thirds of individuals swam directionally with no ontogenetic increase in orientation precision. Larvae swam offshore off open coasts, but not in a bay. In situ observations of C. ignobilis feeding, interacting with pelagic animals, and reacting to reefs are reported. Manus

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021:a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.Methods: The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.Findings: Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44–2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64–3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7–17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8–6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7–10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0–234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7–198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3–214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0–171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3–51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9–52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54–1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5–9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0–19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9–21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0–17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7–27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6–63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4–64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6–2·9) between 2019 and 2021.Interpretation: Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.Funding: Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation

The Malaria Atlas Project: Developing Global Maps of Malaria Risk

The primary goal of the recently launched Malaria Atlas Project is to develop the science of malaria cartography

The overlapping burden of the three leading causes of disability and death in sub-Saharan African children

Despite substantial declines since 2000, lower respiratory infections (LRIs), diarrhoeal diseases, and malaria remain among the leading causes of nonfatal and fatal disease burden for children under 5 years of age (under 5), primarily in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The spatial burden of each of these diseases has been estimated subnationally across SSA, yet no prior analyses have examined the pattern of their combined burden. Here we synthesise subnational estimates of the burden of LRIs, diarrhoea, and malaria in children under-5 from 2000 to 2017 for 43 sub-Saharan countries. Some units faced a relatively equal burden from each of the three diseases, while others had one or two dominant sources of unit-level burden, with no consistent pattern geographically across the entire subcontinent. Using a subnational counterfactual analysis, we show that nearly 300 million DALYs could have been averted since 2000 by raising all units to their national average. Our findings are directly relevant for decision-makers in determining which and targeting where the most appropriate interventions are for increasing child survival

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050:a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundFuture trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.MethodsUsing forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.FindingsIn the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]).InterpretationGlobally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.FundingBill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation