Structural Reforms and Growth in Transition: A Meta-Analysis

The present fiscal difficulties of many countries amplify the call for structural reforms. To provide stylized facts on how reforms worked in the past, we quantitatively review 60 studies estimating the relation between reforms and growth. These studies examine structural reforms carried out in 26 transition countries around the world. Our results show that an average reform caused substantial costs in the short run, but had strong positive effects on long-run growth. Reforms focused on external liberalization proved to be more beneficial than others in both the short and long run. The findings hold even after correction for publication bias and misspecifications present in some primary studies.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/133076/1/wp1057.pd

Early Warning Indicators of Economic Crises: Evidence from a Panel of 40 Developed Countries

Using a panel of 40 EU and OECD countries for the period 1970-2010 we construct an early warning system. The system consists of a discrete and a continuous model. In the discrete model, we collect an extensive database of various types of economic crises called CDEC 40-40 and examine potential leading indicators. In the continuous model, we construct an index of real crisis incidence as the response variable. We determine the optimal lead employing panel vector autoregression for each potential indicator, and then select useful indicators employing Bayesian model averaging. We re-estimate the resulting specification by system GMM and, to allow for country heterogeneity, additionally evaluate the random coefficients estimator and divide countries into clusters. Our results suggest that global variables are among the most useful early warning indicators. In addition, housing prices emerge consistently as an important source of risk. Finally, we simulate the past effectiveness of several policy instruments and conclude that some central bank tools (for example, reserves) could be useful in mitigating crisis incidence.Bayesian model averaging, dynamic panel, early warning indicators, macroprudential policies, panel VAR.

Serum lactate in refractory out-of-hospital cardiac arrest:Post-hoc analysis of the Prague OHCA study

Background: The severity of tissue hypoxia is routinely assessed by serum lactate. We aimed to determine whether early lactate levels predict outcomes in refractory out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) treated by conventional and extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR). Methods: This study is a post-hoc analysis of a randomized Prague OHCA study (NCT01511666) assessing serum lactate levels in refractory OHCA treated by ECPR (the ECPR group) or conventional resuscitation with prehospital achieved return of spontaneous circulation (the ROSC group). Lactate concentrations measured on admission and every 4 hours (h) during the first 24 h were used to determine their relationship with the neurological outcome (the best Cerebral Performance Category score within 180 days post-cardiac arrest). Results:In the ECPR group (92 patients, median age 58.5 years, 83% male) 26% attained a favorable neurological outcome. In the ROSC group (82 patients, median age 55 years, 83% male) 59% achieved a favorable neurological outcome. In ECPR patients lactate concentrations could discriminate favorable outcome patients, but not consistently in the ROSC group. On admission, serum lactate &gt;14.0 mmol/L for ECPR (specificity 87.5%, sensitivity 54.4%) and &gt;10.8 mmol/L for the ROSC group (specificity 83%, sensitivity 41.2%) predicted an unfavorable outcome. Conclusion: In refractory OHCA serum lactate concentrations measured anytime during the first 24 h after admission to the hospital were found to correlate with the outcome in patients treated by ECPR but not in patients with prehospital ROSC. A single lactate measurement is not enough for a reliable outcome prediction and cannot be used alone to guide treatment.</p

Individual differences in the use of the response scale determine valuations of hypothetical health states: an empirical study

Background. The effects of socio-demographic characteristics of the respondent, including age, on valuation scores of hypothetical health states remain inconclusive. Therefore, we analyzed data from a study designed to discriminate between the effects of respondents' age and time preference on valuations of health states to gain insight in the contribution of individual response patterns to the variance in valuation scores. Methods. A total of 212 respondents from three age g

Comparing different early warning systems: Results from a horse race competition among members of the Macro-prudential Research Network

Over the recent decades researchers in academia and central banks have developed early warning systems (EWS) designed to warn policy makers of potential future economic and financial crises. These EWS are based on diverse approaches and empirical models. In this paper we compare the performance of nine distinct models for predicting banking crises resulting from the work of the Macroprudential Research Network (MaRs) initiated by the European System of Central Banks. In order to ensure comparability, all models use the same database of crises created by MaRs and comparable sets of potential early warning indicators. We evaluate the models’ relative usefulness by comparing the ratios of false alarms and missed crises and discuss implications for pratical use and future research. We find that multivariate models, in their many appearances, have great potential added value over simple signalling models. One of the main policy recommendations coming from this exercise is that policy makers can benefit from taking a broad methodological approach when they develop models to set macro-prudential instruments

Comparing different early warning systems: Results from a horse race competition among members of the Macro-prudential Research Network

Over the recent decades researchers in academia and central banks have developed early warning systems (EWS) designed to warn policy makers of potential future economic and financial crises. These EWS are based on diverse approaches and empirical models. In this paper we compare the performance of nine distinct models for predicting banking crises resulting from the work of the Macroprudential Research Network (MaRs) initiated by the European System of Central Banks. In order to ensure comparability, all models use the same database of crises created by MaRs and comparable sets of potential early warning indicators. We evaluate the models’ relative usefulness by comparing the ratios of false alarms and missed crises and discuss implications for pratical use and future research. We find that multivariate models, in their many appearances, have great potential added value over simple signalling models. One of the main policy recommendations coming from this exercise is that policy makers can benefit from taking a broad methodological approach when they develop models to set macro-prudential instruments

Comparing different early warning systems: Results from a horse race competition among members of the Macro-prudential Research Network

Over the recent decades researchers in academia and central banks have developed early warning systems (EWS) designed to warn policy makers of potential future economic and financial crises. These EWS are based on diverse approaches and empirical models. In this paper we compare the performance of nine distinct models for predicting banking crises resulting from the work of the Macroprudential Research Network (MaRs) initiated by the European System of Central Banks. In order to ensure comparability, all models use the same database of crises created by MaRs and comparable sets of potential early warning indicators. We evaluate the models’ relative usefulness by comparing the ratios of false alarms and missed crises and discuss implications for pratical use and future research. We find that multivariate models, in their many appearances, have great potential added value over simple signalling models. One of the main policy recommendations coming from this exercise is that policy makers can benefit from taking a broad methodological approach when they develop models to set macro-prudential instruments