Developing a predictive modelling capacity for a climate change-vulnerable blanket bog habitat: Assessing 1961-1990 baseline relationships

Aim: Understanding the spatial distribution of high priority habitats and developing predictive models using climate and environmental variables to replicate these distributions are desirable conservation goals. The aim of this study was to model and elucidate the contributions of climate and topography to the distribution of a priority blanket bog habitat in Ireland, and to examine how this might inform the development of a climate change predictive capacity for peat-lands in Ireland. Methods: Ten climatic and two topographic variables were recorded for grid cells with a spatial resolution of 1010 km, covering 87% of the mainland land surface of Ireland. Presence-absence data were matched to these variables and generalised linear models (GLMs) fitted to identify the main climatic and terrain predictor variables for occurrence of the habitat. Candidate predictor variables were screened for collinearity, and the accuracy of the final fitted GLM was evaluated using fourfold cross-validation based on the area under the curve (AUC) derived from a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plot. The GLM predicted habitat occurrence probability maps were mapped against the actual distributions using GIS techniques. Results: Despite the apparent parsimony of the initial GLM using only climatic variables, further testing indicated collinearity among temperature and precipitation variables for example. Subsequent elimination of the collinear variables and inclusion of elevation data produced an excellent performance based on the AUC scores of the final GLM. Mean annual temperature and total mean annual precipitation in combination with elevation range were the most powerful explanatory variable group among those explored for the presence of blanket bog habitat. Main conclusions: The results confirm that this habitat distribution in general can be modelled well using the non-collinear climatic and terrain variables tested at the grid resolution used. Mapping the GLM-predicted distribution to the observed distribution produced useful results in replicating the projected occurrence of the habitat distribution over an extensive area. The methods developed will usefully inform future climate change predictive modelling for Irelan

Creating ecologically sound buildings by integrating ecology, architecture and computational design.

Research is revealing an increasing number of positive effects of nature for humans. At the same time, biodiversity in cities, where most humans live, is often low or in decline. Tangible solutions are needed to increase urban biodiversity. Architecture is a key discipline that has considerable influence on the built-up area of cities, thereby influencing urban biodiversity. In general, architects do not design for biodiversity. Conversely, urban conservation planning generally focuses on the limited space free of buildings and does not embrace architecture as an important discipline for the creation of urban green infrastructure. In this paper, we argue that the promotion of biodiversity needs to become a key driving force of architectural design. This requires a new multi-species design paradigm that considers both human and non-human needs. Such a design approach needs to maintain the standards of the architectural profession, including the aim to increase the well-being of humans in buildings. Yet, it also needs to add other stakeholders, organisms such as animals, plants and even microbiota. New buildings designed for humans and other inhabitants can then increase biodiversity in cities and also increase the benefits that humans can derive from close proximity to nature. We review the challenges that this new design approach poses for both architecture and ecology and show that multi-species-design goes beyond existing approaches in architecture and ecology. The new design approach needs to make ecological knowledge available to the architectural design process, enabling practitioners to find architectural solutions that can facilitate synergies from a multi-species perspective. We propose that a first step in creating such a multi-species habitat is the design of buildings with an ecolope, a multi criteria-designed building envelope that takes into account the needs of diverse organisms. Because there is no framework to design such an ecolope, we illustrate how multi-species design needs to draw on knowledge from ecology, as well as architecture, and design computation. We discuss how architectures designed via a multi-species approach can be an important step in establishing beneficial human–nature relationships in cities, and contribute to human well-being and biodiversity conservation. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog

Validity Tests of Benefit Transfer – Are We Performing the Wrong Tests?

The validity of environmental benefit transfer has been tested on numerous occasions assuming classical null hypothesis of equality. We argue against this assumption on the basis of theory, which clearly indicates that environmental benefits should be assumed to vary from context to context. We suggest the use of equivalence testing as a more appropriate and a clear compliment to the shortcomings of classical tests. Equivalence tests test the null hypothesis of difference between the original and transferred value estimates. Equivalence tests also combine the concepts of statistical significance and policy significance into one test, by defining an acceptable transfer error prior to the validity test. The results of a published study on validity of benefit transfer are reversed when subjected to an equivalence test. Copyright Springer 2005benefit transfer, contingent valuation, equivalence tests, validity,