Associations between ambient air pollution and daily mortality in a cohort of congestive heart failure: Case-crossover and nested case-control analyses using a distributed lag nonlinear model.

BACKGROUND: Persons with congestive heart failure may be at higher risk of the acute effects related to daily fluctuations in ambient air pollution. To meet some of the limitations of previous studies using grouped-analysis, we developed a cohort study of persons with congestive heart failure to estimate whether daily non-accidental mortality were associated with spatially-resolved, daily exposures to ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3), and whether these associations were modified according to a series of indicators potentially reflecting complications or worsening of health. METHODS: We constructed the cohort from the linkage of administrative health databases. Daily exposure was assigned from different methods we developed previously to predict spatially-resolved, time-dependent concentrations of ambient NO2 (all year) and O3 (warm season) at participants' residences. We performed two distinct types of analyses: a case-crossover that contrasts the same person at different times, and a nested case-control that contrasts different persons at similar times. We modelled the effects of air pollution and weather (case-crossover only) on mortality using distributed lag nonlinear models over lags 0 to 3 days. We developed from administrative health data a series of indicators that may reflect the underlying construct of "declining health", and used interactions between these indicators and the cross-basis function for air pollutant to assess potential effect modification. RESULTS: The magnitude of the cumulative as well as the lag-specific estimates of association differed in many instances according to the metric of exposure. Using the back-extrapolation method, which is our preferred exposure model, we found for the case-crossover design a cumulative mean percentage changes (MPC) in daily mortality per interquartile increment in NO2 (8.8 ppb) of 3.0% (95% CI: -0.4, 6.6%) and for O3 (16.5 ppb) 3.5% (95% CI: -4.5, 12.1). For O3 there was strong confounding by weather (unadjusted MPC = 7.1%; 95% CI: 1.7, 12.7%). For the nested case-control approach the cumulative MPC for NO2 in daily mortality was 2.9% (95% CI: -0.9, 6.9%) and for O3 7.3% (95% CI: 3.0, 11.9%). We found evidence of effect modification between daily mortality and cumulative NO2 and O3 according to the prescribed dose of furosemide in the nested case-control analysis, but not in the case-crossover analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality in congestive heart failure was associated with exposure to daily ambient NO2 and O3 predicted from a back-extrapolation method using a land use regression model from dense sampling surveys. The methods used to assess exposure can have considerable influence on the estimated acute health effects of the two air pollutants

Spatiotemporal Variations in Ambient Ultrafine Particles and the Incidence of Childhood Asthma.

Rationale: Little is known regarding the impact of ambient ultrafine particles (UFPs; <0.1 μm) on childhood asthma development. Objectives: To examine the association between prenatal and early postnatal life exposure to UFPs and development of childhood asthma. Methods: A total of 160,641 singleton live births occurring in the City of Toronto, Canada between April 1, 2006, and March 31, 2012, were identified from a birth registry. Associations between exposure to ambient air pollutants and childhood asthma incidence (up to age 6) were estimated using random effects Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for personal- and neighborhood-level covariates. We investigated both single-pollutant and multipollutant models accounting for coexposures to particulate matter ≤2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) and NO2. Measurements and Main Results: We identified 27,062 children with incident asthma diagnosis during the follow-up. In adjusted models, second-trimester exposure to UFPs (hazard ratio per interquartile range increase, 1.09; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.12) was associated with asthma incidence. In models additionally adjusted for PM2.5 and nitrogen dioxide, UFPs exposure during the second trimester of pregnancy remained positively associated with childhood asthma incidence (hazard ratio per interquartile range increase, 1.05; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.09). Conclusions: This is the first study to evaluate the association between perinatal exposure to UFPs and the incidence of childhood asthma. Exposure to UFPs during a critical period of lung development was linked to the onset of asthma in children, independent of PM2.5 and NO2

Spatial variations in ambient ultrafine particle concentrations and the risk of incident prostate cancer: A case-control study

Background Diesel exhaust contains large numbers of ultrafine particles (UFPs, <0.1 µm) and is a recognized human carcinogen. However, epidemiological studies have yet to evaluate the relationship between UFPs and cancer incidence. Methods We conducted a case-control study of UFPs and incident prostate cancer in Montreal, Canada. Cases were identified from all main Francophone hospitals in the Montreal area between 2005 and 2009. Population controls were identified from provincial electoral lists of French Montreal residents and frequency-matched to cases using 5-year age gr

Spatial variations in ambient ultrafine particle concentrations and risk of congenital heart defects.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular malformations account for nearly one-third of all congenital anomalies, making these the most common type of birth defects. Little is known regarding the influence of ambient ultrafine particles (<0.1 μm) (UFPs) on their occurrence. OBJECTIVE: This population-based study examined the association between prenatal exposure to UFPs and congenital heart defects (CHDs). METHODS: A total of 158,743 singleton live births occurring in the City of Toronto, Canada between April 1st 2006 and March 31st 2012 were identified from a birth registry. Associations between exposure to ambient UFPs between the 2nd and 8th week post conception when the foetal heart begins to form and CHDs identified at birth were estimated using random-effects logistic regression models, adjusting for personal- and neighbourhood-level covariates. We also investigated multi-pollutant models accounting for co-exposures to PM2.5, NO2 and O3. RESULTS: A total of 1468 CHDs were identified. In fully adjusted models, UFP exposures during weeks 2 to 8 of pregnancy were not associated with overall CHDs (Odds Ratio (OR) per interquartile (IQR) increase = 1.02, 95% CI: 0.96-1.08). When investigating subtypes of CHDs, UFP exposures were associated with ventricular septal defects (Odds Ratio (OR) per interquartile (IQR) increase = 1.13, 95% CI: 1.03-1.33), but not with atrial septal defect (Odds Ratio (OR) per interquartile (IQR) increase = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.74-1.06). CONCLUSION: This is the first study to evaluate the association between prenatal exposure to UFPs and the risk of CHDs. UFP exposures during a critical period of embryogenesis were associated with an increased risk of ventricular septal defect

The Canadian Urban Environmental Health Research Consortium - A protocol for building a national environmental exposure data platform for integrated analyses of urban form and health

Background: Multiple external environmental exposures related to residential location and urban form including, air pollutants, noise, greenness, and walkability have been linked to health impacts or benefits. The Canadian Urban Environmental Health Research Consortium (CANUE) was established to facilitate the linkage of extensive geospatial exposure data to existing Canadian cohorts and administrative health data holdings. We hypothesize that this linkage will enable investigators to test a variety of their own hypotheses related to the interdependent associations of built environment features with diverse health outcomes encompassed by the cohorts and administrative data. Methods: We developed a protocol for compiling measures of built environment features that quantify exposure; vary spatially on the urban and suburban scale; and can be modified through changes in policy or individual behaviour to benefit health. These measures fall into six domains: air quality, noise, greenness, weather/climate, and transportation and neighbourhood factors; and will be indexed to six-digit postal codes to facilitate merging with health databases. Initial efforts focus on existing data and include estimates of air pollutants, greenness, temperature extremes, and neighbourhood walkability and socioeconomic characteristics. Key gaps will be addressed for noise exposure, with a new national model being developed, and for transportation-related exposures, with detailed estimates of truck volumes and diesel emissions now underway in selected cities. Improvements to existing exposure estimates are planned, primarily by increasing temporal and/or spatial resolution given new satellite-based sensors and more detailed national air quality modelling. Novel metrics are also planned for walkability and food environments, green space access and function and life-long climate-related exposures based on local climate zones. Critical challenges exist, for example, the quantity and quality of input data to many of the models and metrics has changed over time, making it difficult to develop and validate historical exposures. Discussion: CANUE represents a unique effort to coordinate and leverage substantial research investments and will enable a more focused effort on filling gaps in exposure information, improving the range of exposures quantified, their precision and mechanistic relevance to health. Epidemiological studies may be better able to explore the common theme of urban form and health in an integrated manner, ultimately contributing new knowledge informing policies that enhance healthy urban living

An Integrated Multi-model Approach for Predicting the Impact of Household Travel on Urban Air Quality and Simulating Population Exposure

The population and economic growth experienced by Canadian metropolitan areas in the past twenty years, has been associated with increased levels of car ownership and vehicle kilometres travelled leading to a deterioration of air quality and public health and an increase in greenhouse gas emissions. The need to modify urban growth patterns has motivated planning agencies in Canada to develop a broad range of policies aiming at achieving a more sustainable transportation sector. The challenge however, remains in the ability to test the effectiveness of proposed policy measures. This situation has led to a renewed interest in integrated land-use and transport models to support transport policy appraisal. This research is motivated by the need to improve transport policy appraisal through the use of integrated land-use and transport models linked with a range of sub-models that can reflect transport externalities. This research starts with an exploration of the transport policy environment in Canada through a questionnaire-based survey conducted with planners and policy-makers. The survey results highlight the need for tools reflecting the sustainability impacts of proposed policies. While the second part of this research explores sustainability indicators and recommends a set of social, economic, and environmental measures, linked with integrated land-use and transport models; effort is dedicated to estimate the environmental indicators as part of this thesis. As such, the third part of this research involves the development of an emission-dispersion-exposure modelling framework. The framework includes a suite of sub-models including an activity-based travel demand model (TASHA), an emission factor model (Mobile6.2C), a meteorological model (CALMET), and a dispersion model (CALPUFF). The framework is used to estimate link-based emissions of light-duty vehicles in the Greater Toronto Area under a base scenario for 2001. Dispersion of emissions is then conducted and linked with population in order to estimate exposure to air pollution.Ph

Investigating the isolated and combined effects of congestion, roadway grade, passenger load, and alternative fuels on transit bus emissions

This study investigates the isolated and combined effects of network congestion, roadway grade, passenger load, and fuel type on transit bus emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) through a simulation of transit operations and emissions along a busy corridor. We also test the effect of changing random seed on overall corridor emissions. We observe that positive grades have strong effects on emissions. Grade also causes other variables to become important such as passenger load. While an increasing passenger load on the bus increases emissions, we observe that the addition of each passenger influences the per-passenger emissions differently depending on the bus occupancy. When the bus is less crowded each additional passenger can decrease per-passenger emissions by 5% whereas the reduction becomes 1.2% when the bus is crowded. Finally, we observe that the reduction potential of compressed natural gas (CNG) compared to conventional diesel could reach up to 40% depending on speed, grade, and passenger load. CNG benefits increase with increasing congestion, and decrease with increasing grade and passenger load. The results of this study are most relevant to transit planners in the evaluation of potential operational changes with emission reduction potential and in the allocation of alternative fuelled buses along selected transit corridors