Documenting energy flows between states: The Global Energy Relations Dataset (GERD), 1978-2014

Being the most globally traded commodity in terms of monetary value, energy remains one of the important shapers of interstate relations. States' quest to secure exports and imports of energy resources and the resultant efforts to govern energy flows have created numerous phenomena that have been of immediate interest to international relations (IR) scholars. However, few studies have so far aimed to systematically examine how energy relations shape global politics. One important reason for this paucity relates to the lack of a dataset with wide spatiotemporal coverage that allows for such systematic analysis. The Global Energy Relations Dataset (GERD), featured in this study, aims to facilitate systematic analyses of energy relations in IR. The dataset offers yearly energy flow data for all country-pairs around the globe between 1978 and 2014. The data are compiled from major international and national agencies that offer reliable data on energy trade. Standardized over megajoules, the data are offered in directed-dyadic (exporter-importer) and monadic (country-only) format. The data are further broken down by resource (i.e., coal, oil, gas, and electricity) whenever possible. Preliminary analyses indicate energy relations exhibit considerable variance among pairs of states and over time, and that trade in some energy resources may pacify relations more than others. Correlating this variance with canonical variables used in international relations points to promising areas of research. Al ser el producto mas comercializado en todo el mundo en terminos de valor monetario, la energia sigue siendo uno de los principales factores que determinan las relaciones entre los estados. El afan de los estados por garantizar las exportaciones e importaciones de los recursos energeticos y las acciones resultantes para controlar los flujos de energia crearon numerosos fenomenos que generaron un interes inmediato en los especialistas en relaciones internacionales (RR. II.). Sin embargo, son pocos los estudios que, hasta ahora, analizaron de manera sistematica como las relaciones en materia de energia configuran la politica mundial. Un motivo importante de esta escasez de estudios es la falta de un conjunto de datos con una amplia cobertura espacio-temporal que permita dicho analisis sistematico. El Conjunto de datos de las relaciones energeticas mundiales (Global Energy Relations Dataset, GERD), presentado en este estudio, tiene como objetivo facilitar el analisis sistematico de las relaciones en materia de energia en las RR. II. El conjunto de datos ofrece todos los anos informacion sobre el flujo de energia para todos los pares de paises del mundo entre 1978 y 2014. Los datos proceden de los principales organismos internacionales y nacionales que ponen a disposicion informacion confiable sobre la comercializacion de la energia. Estandarizados en megajulios (MJ), los datos se ofrecen en formato diadico (exportador-importador) y en formato monadico (pais solo). Los datos se desglosan, ademas, por recursos (es decir, carbon, petroleo, gas y electricidad), siempre que sea posible. Los analisis preliminares indican que las relaciones energeticas presentan una considerable variacion entre los estados pares y con el paso del tiempo, y que la comercializacion de algunos recursos energeticos puede pacificar las relaciones mas que otros. La correlacion de esta variacion con las variables canonicas utilizadas en las relaciones comerciales es un indicador de campos de investigacion prometedores. En tant que produit de base occupant la plus grande place dans le commerce international en termes de valeur monetaire, l'energie reste l'un des facteurs importants qui faconnent les relations interetatiques. La quete de securisation des exportations et des importations de ressources energetiques des etats et les efforts qui en resultent pour regir les flux energetiques ont donne lieu a de nombreux phenomenes qui ont suscite un interet immediat des chercheurs en relations internationales (RI). Cependant, seules quelques etudes ont jusqu'ici eu pour objectif d'examiner systematiquement la maniere dont les relations energetiques faconnaient la politique mondiale. L'une des principales raisons de cette insuffisance est l'absence d'un jeu de donnees a large couverture spatio-temporelle qui permettrait une telle analyse systematique. Le Jeu de donnees sur les relations energetiques mondiales (GERD, Global Energy Relations Dataset) presente dans cette etude a pour objectif de faciliter les analyses systematiques des relations energetiques en RI. Ce jeu de donnees fournit des donnees annuelles sur les flux energetiques de 1978 a 2014 pour toutes les paires de pays du monde entier. Les donnees ont ete compilees apres avoir ete recueillies aupres des principales agences nationales et internationales consacrees a l'energie qui offrent des donnees fiables sur le commerce d'energie. Les donnees sont normalisees en megajoules (MJ) et fournies au format dyadique avec direction (exportateur/importateur) et au format monadique (pays seulement). Elles sont par ailleurs reparties par ressource (c-a-d, charbon, petrole, gaz et electricite) des que possible. Les analyses preliminaires indiquent que les relations energetiques presentent une variance considerable entre les paires d'etats et au fil du temps et que le commerce de certaines ressources energetiques plus que d'autres peut pacifier des relations. La correlation de cette variance avec des variables canoniques utilisees en relations internationales met en evidence des domaines de recherche prometteurs.KAPSARC ; Payne Institut

Enerji güvenliği

21. yüzyılda şahit olduğumuz toplumsal ve teknolojik gelişmeler enerji güvenliği tesisini ülkeler için çok boyutlu bir sorun haline getirmiştir. Bir taraftan üretim,tedarik ve fiyatlamada tahmin edilebilirlik olguları enerji güvenliğinin temelini oluşturmaya devam etmektedir. Diğer taraftan, küreselleşmenin gündeme getirdiği uluslararası terörizm, siber saldırılar, ulusdevleti tehdit eden yerel ve bölgesel oluşumlar gibi konular, ülkeleri enerji güvenlikleri konusunda askeriekonomik-diplomasi üçgeninin ötesinde politikalar üretmeye zorlamaktadır. Asya Pasifik Enerji Araştırmaları Merkezi’nin 4A yaklaşımı, enerji güvenliğinin evrildiği çok boyutlu ve çok anlamlı doğasını çözümleyebilme yolunda faydalı bir çerçeve sunmaktadır. Buna göre, enerji güvenliğinin mevcudiyet (availability), erişilebilirlik (accessibility), ekonomiklik (affordability) ve sosyal kabul edilebilirlik (acceptability) boyutlarına dikkat çekilmekte, bu boyutların farklı aktörler için nasıl farklı anlamlara gelebildiklerini net bir şekilde örneklenmektedir. Yenilenebilir enerjinin getirdiği yenilik ve sorunlar da 4A çerçevesinde etkili bir şekilde değerlendirilebilmektedir

Foreign policy and public attitudes in Turkey : an application of the hierarchical model of attitude constraint

Previous studies on Turkish public attitudes on foreign policy have mostly been of descriptive nature and failed to test a model against the data at hand. Explaining foreign policy attitude formation with a model both sheds light on to the role of public attitudes in international negotiations and renders predictive power for identifying public attitudes in future international incidents. Using information processing theory, this thesis applies the hierarchical model of attitude constraint to see whether abstracter beliefs and values of an individual determine her attitudes in foreign policy realm, a realm which is especially complex and ambiguous to make sense out of with everyday stimuli one is exposed to. Simple ordinary least squares and binary logistic regressions were run on a data obtained from a nationwide survey that included both urban and rural areas. The components of the model were derived from previous literature that examined the fault lines of Turkish society.Findings suggest that expectation in socioeconomic status change is a major determinant in foreign policy attitude formation. While statistically significant, religiosity plays a relatively minor role in the model. Contrary to the expectations, group identity also plays a trivial role as a constraining factor in attitude formation - only an ideologically polarized, agitated small Kurdish group consistently stand out in its foreign policy attitudes. Trust in third party actors (i.e. the European Union) prove to constrain attitudes in specific foreign policies pursued by Turkey

Savaşın ve barışın nedenleri: siyasi kurumlar, demokrasi ve ötesi

Savaş, insanlığın gördüğü en yıkıcı süreçlerden biridir. Yine de askeri güç kullanımı devletler tarafından bilinçli yapılan bir politika seçimidir. Genel olarak çatışma ve barış çalışmaları altında yapılan çalışmalar, ülkeler arası güç dengesi ve sistemde kutuplaşmayı barışın reçetesi olarak sunan realist ve neorealist yaklaşımların geçerliliğini sorgulamaktadır. Savaşın nedenlerini sistemli şekilde ortaya çıkarmak için ülkelerin iç yapılarının anlaşılması gerektiğini savunan bu çalışmalar güçlü bir yazın geliştirdiler. İlk sistemli temelini demokratik barış teorisi üzerinden oluşturan bu yaklaşım, tüm ülke ve liderlerin, tarihsel miras, kültür, din ve benzeri niteliklerden bağımsız olarak askeri güç kullanımını, diğer dış politika gereçleri yerine rahatça kullanmayı seçebileceğini savlar. Ancak, bir ülkenin kurumlarının keyfi güç kullanımına karşı oluşturduğu mekanizmalar ve kurumsal şeffaflık hem olası savaşları önlemekte hem de ülkenin gerçekten ciddi olduğu bir konuda istediğini savaşmadan elde etmesini sağlamaktadır

Iran sanctions: implications for the oil market

United States (U.S.) Iran energy sanction waivers expired May 2, 2019. The waivers permitted eight economies (China, Greece, India, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Turkey) to temporarily continue buying oil from Iran. Based on KAPSARC modeling of the political decision-making process, this Instant Insight – the first such KAPSARC publication – finds that the international community, and indeed some of the waiver economies, will at best partially comply with reinstated sanctions. China, India and Turkey are particularly unlikely to comply with U.S. sanctions and will maintain much of their current oil trade with Iran, the modeling shows. The paper also simulates the likely impact on the global oil price of ending the waivers in four scenarios which show: i) no oil price rise if the sanctions don’t work at all, ii) an oil price rise of up to 12% by Q2 2020 if Iranian oil exports drop by an average 42%, iii) a 30%-plus price increase if the sanctions are 100% effective, and iv) no significant price change if Saudi Arabia offsets reduced Iranian crude oil exports by increasing its output and exports

Afghanistan in transition: institution and security nexus

After more than a decade of NATO-led intervention, Afghanistan is now transitioning into a fully functioning state. Two main challenges lie ahead as NATO plans to withdraw its forces and turn security over to the Afghan government. The short-term challenge relates to guaranteeing an effective and efficient turnover of power to Afghan authorities. In the longer term, NATO wants to ensure a healthy consolidation of Afghan state institutions. The way in which NATO manages this turnover as well as its role in the transition’s aftermath will have immense implications on the evolution of the Afghan state. As such, the transatlantic alliance, as well as civil and military policy makers, are at a critical juncture in its Afghanistan endeavor. The transition from a stage of acute conflict to that of institutional consolidation will bring about new challenges for Afghanistan across a spectrum of policy issues. In this transition stage, Afghanistan needs not reinvent the wheel in many of the challenges it will face. Istanbul Policy Center in cooperation with USAK and the financial support of NATO Public Diplomacy Division convened a series of panels to further the debate on specific policy challenges facing NATO and the Afghan government during this transition. More specifically, these panels hosted experts in specific fields that we deemed may be critical to a healthy consolidation of the Afghan state. We chose the panel topics to address concrete policy challenges that stand at the security-economics-society nexus and that can lend themselves to specific policy proposals

The impact of global trade disruptions on world oil markets

Our model simulations suggest three critical insights: 1. Despite a significant fall in global GDP, the price of Brent crude will fall only slightly. 2. Almost all oil producing countries see a significant cut to their oil production relative to their baseline, while the U.S. sees an increase. Saudi Arabia emerges as the swing producer, absorbing a significant portion of this production cut. 3. The trade war will lead to backwardation in the price of Brent, which is expected to fall slightly in the year following a negative shock to global GDP due to global trade disruptions, falling further in the second year of the disruption (2020). In anticipation of this, a. oil exporters will release a larger part of their inventories onto the market in early 2020,followed by a smaller amount in early 2021; b. oil importers will increase their oil purchases in 2021, capitalizing on lower oil prices

The relationship between serum ghrelin levels and hair zinc concentrations in children

Background: Zinc (Zn) plays a central role in the activation of numerous enzyme systems that synthesize and degrade bioactive peptides. Some of these bioactive peptides, also called neuropeptides, are involved in the regulation of food intake

Automated text analysis and international relations: the introduction and application of a novel technique for Twitter

Social media platforms, thanks to their inherent nature of quick and far-reaching dissemination of information, have gradually supplanted the conventional media and become the new loci of political communication. These platforms not only ease and expedite communication among crowds, but also provide researchers huge and easily accessible information. This huge information pool, if it is processed with a systematic analysis, can be a fruitful data source for researchers. Systematic analysis of data from social media, however, poses various challenges for political analysis. Significant advances in automated textual analysis have tried to address such challenges of social media data. This paper introduces one such novel technique to assist researchers doing textual analysis on Twitter. More specifically, we develop a clustering methodology based on Longest Common Subsequence Similarity Metric, which automatically groups tweets with similar content. To illustrate the usefulness of this technique, we present some of our findings from a project we conducted on Turkish sentiments on Twitter towards Syrian refugees

Screening of Hyperaldosteronism on the Investigation of Secondary Hypertension: Single-centre Experience

Introduction:Primary hyperaldosteronism (PHA), is a clinical syndrome that is defined as inappropriately increased serum aldosterone secretion and low plasma renin levels. PHA has been reported as the most common cause of secondary hypertension. In this retrospective study, we planned to show the significance of screening for this disease in hypertensive patients admitted to our clinic.Methods:Our study included 64 patients who were admitted to our cardiology outpatient clinic between April 2018 and August 2021 with high blood pressure and were selected to be checked for plasma renin activity (PRA), PAC, and PAC/PRA ratios to exclude secondary hypertension. Medical records, hypertension treatments, and medical histories of the patients were reviewed from our hospital database.Results:Of the 64 patients, 25 (39.1%) were female and 39 (60.9%) were male. After the first evaluation of the patients, 13 patients were decided to be assessed with the saline infusion test. PHA was diagnosed in 7 of 13 patients evaluated. In the adrenal MRI performed in 3 of 7 patients diagnosed with PHA, one adrenal hyperplasia and one adrenal adenoma were diagnosed in 2 different patients.Conclusion:Primary hyperaldosteronism is one of the most important causes of secondary hypertension. Although there are various methods such as screening tests, the most commonly used method is the aldosterone/renin ratio and it is very practical to screen. Considering the various cardiovascular diseases that PHA is associated with, and the simplicity of treatment of PHA, we strongly believe that the screening threshold for PHA should be kept as low as possible and should be independent of age