The Impact of Real Oil Price on Real Effective Exchange Rate: The Case of Azerbaijan

Using quarterly data from 2000-2007 and applying Error Correction Model and Johansen Co-integration Approaches I estimate the impact of real oil price on the real exchange rate of Azerbaijani manat. Estimation outputs derived from these approaches are very close to each other and indicate that real oil price has statistically significant positive impact on real exchange rate in the long-run. Besides, revealed that relative price as a proxy for productivity has also explanatory power in explaining long-run behavior of real exchange rate. Estimated Error Correction Term indicates that half-life of adjustment toward long-run equilibrium level takes 3-4 quarters. Since findings of this study occur as results of high fiscal expansion my policy suggestions mainly related to Fiscal policy implementations.Real effective exchange rate, Real oil price, Relative productivity, Azerbaijani manat, Dutch Disease, Oil-exporting Countries, Johansen Co-integration Approach, Error Correction Modeling, Half-life Speed

Analyzing price level in a booming economy: the case of Azerbaijan

The study analyzes price level in Azerbaijan economy over the period of 2000-2007 by employing a specific approach. The paper concludes that price increases caused by a resource boom differs from the price increases generated by a non-booming economy. Thereby, inflation mainly caused by resource boom has its own specific features in terms of impact on economy and therefore requires specific policy response. Some policy recommendations related to monetary and fiscal policies are suggested for elimination of harmful effects of resource boom and for preventing high price level in Azerbaijani economy.Oil boom, Dutch Disease, Price level, Azerbaijan economy, Bound Testing Approach.

The impact of real oil price on real effective exchange rate: The case of Azerbaijan

Using quarterly data from 2000-2007 and applying Error Correction Model and Johansen Co- integration Approaches I estimate the impact of real oil price on the real exchange rate of Azerbaijani manat. Estimation outputs derived from these approaches are very close to each other and indicate that real oil price has statistically significant positive impact on real exchange rate in the long-run. Besides, revealed that relative price as a proxy for productivity has also explanatory power in explaining long-run behavior of real exchange rate. Estimated Error Correction Term indicates that half-life of adjustment toward long-run equilibrium level takes 3-4 quarters. Since findings of this study occur as results of high fiscal expansion my policy suggestions mainly related to Fiscal policy implementations.Real effective exchange rate, Real oil price, Relative productivity, Azerbaijani manat, Dutch Disease, Oil-exporting Countries, Johansen Co-integration Approach, Error Correction Modeling, Half-life Speed

The Impact of Real Effective Exchange Rate on the Non-oil Export: The Case of Azerbaijan

The paper investigates the impact of the real exchange rate on non-oil exports in Azerbaijan by applying Vector Error Correction Model. The estimation results suggest that real exchange rate of manat has negative impact on non-oil export performance while non-oil GDP affects positively in the long- and short-run. Error correction term indicates that short-run fluctuation can be adjusted into long-run equilibrium relationship. Based on findings of the study can be concluded that appreciating real exchange rate is one of major factors that impede non-oil export growth. Since promotion of non-oil export is one of the urgent issues of the strategic economic policy of Azerbaijan Republic then findings of the study may be useful for policymakers.Azerbaijani economy, Non-oil export, Real effective exchange rate, Non-oil GDP, Dutch Disease, Vector Error Correction Model.

Relationship between inflation and economic growth in Azerbaijani economy: is there any threshold effect?

The study examines possibility of threshold effect of inflation on economic growth over the period of 2000-2009. Estimated threshold model indicates that there is a non-linear relationship between economic growth and inflation in the Azerbaijani economy and threshold level of inflation for GDP growth is 13 percent. Below threshold level inflation has statistically significant positive effect on GDP growth, but this positive relationship becomes negative one when inflation exceeds 13 percent. Results of the study may be useful for monetary policymakers in terms of keeping inflation below the threshold level of 13 percent to prevent its negative effect on economic growth.Azerbaijani Economy, Inflation, Economic Growth, Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Threshold Level

Why had the Money Market Approach been irrelevant in explaining inflation in Azerbaijan during the rapid economic growth period?

The study examines whether inflation process can be explained within the framework of the Money Market Approach in the third stage of economic development of Azerbaijan economy covering 2004-2008. By employing dynamic modeling study concludes that the Money Market Approach has not been relevant for explaining Azerbaijani inflation. Because Azerbaijan, a resource rich small open economy in transition processes, has some stylized facts which are important to take into account in the analysis of the inflation. Since the Money Market Approach seems irrelevant one, the paper puts forward application of other alternative explanations for Azerbaijani inflation in the future. In this regard analyzing inflation in the context of resource dependence seems one of the relevant approaches due to high price increases mainly sourced from oil revenues.Inflation rate; Money Market Approach; Transition economy; Resource Abundance; Oil and Non-oil Sectors; Econometric modeling; Azerbaijan

Relationship between inflation and economic growth in Azerbaijani economy: is there any threshold effect?

The study examines possibility of threshold effect of inflation on economic growth over the period of 2000-2009. Estimated threshold model indicates that there is a non-linear relationship between economic growth and inflation in the Azerbaijani economy and threshold level of inflation for GDP growth is 13 percent. Below threshold level inflation has statistically significant positive effect on GDP growth, but this positive relationship becomes negative one when inflation exceeds 13 percent. Results of the study may be useful for monetary policymakers in terms of keeping inflation below the threshold level of 13 percent to prevent its negative effect on economic growth

The Impact of Real Effective Exchange Rate on the Non-oil Export: The Case of Azerbaijan

The paper investigates the impact of the real exchange rate on non-oil exports in Azerbaijan by applying Vector Error Correction Model. The estimation results suggest that real exchange rate of manat has negative impact on non-oil export performance while non-oil GDP affects positively in the long- and short-run. Error correction term indicates that short-run fluctuation can be adjusted into long-run equilibrium relationship. Based on findings of the study can be concluded that appreciating real exchange rate is one of major factors that impede non-oil export growth. Since promotion of non-oil export is one of the urgent issues of the strategic economic policy of Azerbaijan Republic then findings of the study may be useful for policymakers

The impact of the real exchange rate on non-oil exports. Is there an asymmetric adjustment towards the equilibrium?

This study investigates the impact of the real exchange rate on the non-oil exports of the Republic of Azerbaijan in the framework of cointegration and an asymmetric error correction. Threshold and Momentum Threshold Autoregressive methods are applied over the quarterly period 2000Q1-2010Q4. The main finding of the study is that there is a long-run relationship between the variables with symmetric rather than asymmetric adjustment towards the equilibrium level