Demand Forecast of Jakarta-Surabaya High Speed Rail based on Stated Preference Method

Intercity roads, rail networks and air transport in Java, Indonesia, have suffered greatly due to the congestion of goods and passenger transport.  The plan to build a 730 kilometer high-speed rail (HSR) route from Jakarta, the state capital, to Surabaya, the capital of East Java Province, has been discussed in the public sphere for years. The Government of Indonesia (GOI) plans to connect these two cities by HSR to supplement the alternatives, such as conventional rail, air and toll roads. The HSR service is expected to reduce the existing average intercity train travel time from nine hours to five hours, or even to three depending on the maximum design speed. Currently, door-to-door air travel may take five hours. Another goal of the Jakarta-Surabaya HSR is to improve accessibility between major cities in Java, reduce congestion between them, and reduce air pollution, accidents and energy consumption along the transport corridor. The purpose of this study is to estimate the number of passengers from existing modes of transportation (e.g. road, rail and air) who would be willing to change their choice of mode to the planned high-speed trains. The data for the study are based on stated choice questions posed to respondents, in which the differences in attributes such as travel time and cost; service frequency or headway; and accessibility, such as the distance and cost to reach the stations, are the main factors influencing switching behavior to the new HSR services. The chosen model is the MNL III model, with 45.36% accuracy and 0.128 pseudo R-square. By using the Multinomial Logit model (MNL), the study reveals that the most important variable is travel time, followed by frequency and cost. The MNL model is also used to estimate the initial HSR ridership to produce the demand forecast along the planning horizon

Kebijakan Kunci Manajemen Transportasi Kota Dalam Masa dan Pasca Reformasi

When we were still enjoying economic growth, it was already not that easy to plan an investment policy in transport and to manage the urban transport system, because at that time we already had a big problem, i.e. lack of government budget for handling the large scale demand and complex national transportation problem. Private sector participation started to be widely offered at that time, and up to now the atmosphere is still being improved. Suddenly, we face an economic flu or 'crisis' that will remain so far the next couple of years. This paper tries to answer questions that will naturaly appear, such as what is going to be the basic policy for urban transport management? What would be the objective and how should the planning approach now be adapted? And also, what ar the main issues that have to be put in front and what would the strategy be? For sure, in the meantime the practice of development planning, which has been based on growth theory paradigm, will no longer be applicable. With this reality, the main activity of urban transport management should be in optimal management of the existing infrastructure and facilities. If there is to be a new investment for urban transport system development in the era of 'crisis', it will be highly competing with other important sectors, such as agriculture, health and small business sectors. Such investment, if any, should be examined comprehensively about its cost-effectiveness from the social welfare view point. Within the urban transport system, institutional reform either in structure or procedure is a must. Lists of reforms that have been raised even before the crisis are still most likely relevant. Therefore they have to be continued with further action. This paper also tries to list the necessary improvements in urban transport management system that have to be considered during and after the reform period

Krisis Perencanaan Transportasi Kota

In Indonesia, the study on the correlation between land-use and transportation was started 21 cyears ago following similiar studies conducted by developed countries 43 years ago. The main purpose of these studies was to prepare an efficient transportation plan for a city or region in order to facilitate the increase in the traffic as the result of the growth of social-economic activities in the city in the future Due to inconsistency between plan and reality in the implementation phase, in the developed countries critiques on the failures of these studies emerged in the middle of 1970"²s, at the time when the methods and technologies were being imported by developed countries, and in Indonesia, there has been a crisis in urban transportation planning. This article tries to look back at history of the implementation of similar studies in large cities of Indonesia and in the neighboring countries. Some weaknesses of the studies and the modeling will be identified. At the end, the article discusses the weaknesses in the implementation phase of urban transportation plan in Indonesia and alternative policies for the future

Users’ Perception of Private Park and Ride Facilities in Cawang Area, Jakarta, Indonesia

Abstract Despite various measures implemented to manage road traffic, Jakarta City is still experiencing severe congestion. The concept, as well as the implementation of integrated urban transportation strategy, is gaining more attention in public discourse and policymaking. As bus and rail lines are being extended in the city, P&R facilities are expected to play an important role, as it can function as an interface between private vehicles and public transport. However, the development and use of P&R facilities have not been efficient until today. This paper reviews the P&R development in the Greater Jakarta area and conduct users’ perception survey in private P&R sites at Cawang area. It was found that for the P&R to be attractive, the waiting time of public transport (BRT) connected to P&R facility should be short and predictable. Most P&R users expect that parking charges can be lowered and wish that public transport service and P&R facilities were available and accessible. The placement of advertisement and information system about the P&R services, providing a place to eat and drink, the presence of tower to monitor the P&R area and the availability of intermodal transfer facilities are also essential to encourage the potential user to use P&R facilities. Abstrak Meskipun telah menerapkan beberapa kebijakan lalu lintas, Kota Jakarta masih saja mengalami kemacetan yang cukup parah. Saat ini, konsep dan implementasi dari transportasi perkotaan yang terintegrasi terus mendapat perhatian pada diskusi publik dan pembuatan kebijakan. Dengan terus berlanjutnya pembangunan jaringan bus rapid transit dan transportasi jalan rel, maka fasilitas Park&Ride (P&R) diprediksi akan memainkan peran penting dalam mendukung sistem transportasi yang ada. Hal ini dikarenakan fasilitas tersebut dapat berfungsi sebagai penghubung antara moda kendaraan pribadi dan transportasi public. Akan tetapi, hingga saat ini perkembangan fasilitas P&R masih belum efisien. Penelitian ini meninjau perkembangan fasilitas P&R di wilayah Metropolitan Jakarta dan melakukan survey persepsi untuk fasilitas P&R di daerah Cawang, Jakarta. Melalui survey tersebut, diketahui bahwa pengurangan waktu tunggu dan peningkatan tingkat prediktabilitas dari transportasi publik (Transjakarta BRT) akan meningkatkan minat untuk menggunakan fasilitas P&R. Berdasarkan hasil survey, diketahui juga bahwa para pengguna fasilitas P&R berharap agar tarif parkir dapat diturunkan dan agar aksesibilitas dari fasilitas P&R dan transportasi publik dapat ditingkatkan. Beberapa faktor seperti keberadaan informasi terkait fasilitas P&R, keberadaan tempat makan dan minum di sekitar fasilitas P&R, keberadaan tower atau kelengkapan untuk mengawasi fasilitas P&R, dan keberadaan dari fasilitas transfer antarmoda juga penting untuk membuat masyarakat lebih tertarik untuk menggunakan fasilitas P&R

Model Pemilihan Moda Angkutan Penumpang Pesawat Terbang dan Kapal Cepat dengan Data SP (Stated Preference) (Studi Kasus: Rute Palembang - Batam)

AbstrakPenelitian ini dimaksudkan untuk membangun model pemilihan moda angkutan penumpang antara pesawat terbang dan kapal cepat rute Palembang "“ Batam melalui pengetahuan atas preferensi pengguna jasa terhadap atribut perjalanan moda yang kemudian dimodelkan untuk memperoleh nilai utilitas dan probabilitas pemilihan masing-masing moda. Perumusan perilaku individu dalam memilih moda angkutan ke dalam model pemilihan moda dilakukan dengan memanfaatkan data SP (Stated Preference). Penelitian ini menggunakan 5 (lima) atribut perjalanan yang dianggap berpengaruh besar dalam perilaku pemilihan moda, yaitu biaya perjalanan, total waktu perjalanan, aksesibilitas menuju Bandara/Pelabuhan, frekuensi keberangkatan, dan tingkat pelayanan/fasilitas di dalam moda. Dari hasil analisis diperoleh persamaan selisih utilitas pesawat terbang dan kapal cepat sebagai berikut:UPT "“ UKC = -6,727088 "“ 0,000010 X1 "“ 1,502469 X2 + 2,363855 X5yang mana :UPT = utilitas pesawat terbangUKC = utilitas kapal cepatX1 = Selisih biaya perjalanan pesawat terbang dan kapal cepatX2 = Selisih total waktu perjalanan pesawat terbang dan kapal cepatX5 = Selisih tingkat pelayanan pesawat terbang dan kapal cepatDan, probabilitas memilih masing-masing moda adalah :     PKC = 1 / 1+exp (UPT "“U KC  )PPT = 1 - PKCyang mana :        PPT      = Probabilitas pemilihan pesawat terbangPKC      = Probabilitas pemilihan kapal cepatBerdasarkan analisis sensitivitas, waktu perjalanan merupakan atribut yang paling sensitif mempengaruhi probabilitas pemilihan pesawat terbang dan kapal cepat.Abstract. The objective of the research is to develop mode choice models of passenger transportation between aeroplane and high speed ferry on the Palembang "“ Batam route by means of travellers' preference of mode attributes to obtain the utility and choice probability of each mode. The mode choice model was developed based on individual mode choice behaviour which was estimated by applying SP (Stated Preference) data. This research considered five travel service attributes assumed to influence mode choice significantly, namely cost, journey time, accessibility, service frequency, and quality of services.  The resulting difference of utilities between aeroplane and high speed ferry is:UPT "“ UKC = -6,727088 "“ 0,000010 X1 "“ 1,502469 X2 + 2,363855 X5whereUPT = utility of aeroplaneUKC = utilitas of high speed ferryX1 = Cost difference of aeroplane and high speed ferryX2 = Journey time difference of aeroplane and high speed ferryX5 = Service quality difference of aeroplane and high speed ferryAnd, the probability of mode choices are :PKC = 1 / 1+exp (UPT "“U KC  )PPT = 1 - PKCwhere:    PPT        = Probability of choosing aeroplanePKC        = Probabilitas of choosing high speed ferryAccording to the sensitivity analysis, journey time is the most sensitive attribute which influences the probability of mode choice.

Penerapan Konsep Vehicle Routing Problem dalam Kasus Pengangkutan Sampah di Perkotaan

Abstrak. Kota-kota di negara berkembang masih mengoperasikan pengangkutan dan pengelolaan sampah secara tradisional di sisi jalan dan atau titik transfer di mana sampah dikumpulkan secara berkala oleh truk khusus, yang akhirnya akan dibawa ke tempat pembuangan akhir. Masalahnya semakin memburuk karena beberapa kota mengalami penurunan pelayanan angkutan sampah karena pengelolaan sistem yang tidak tepat, kapasitas fiskal untuk berinvestasi dalam armada kendaraan yang memadai dan juga karena tidak terkendali lokasi tempat pembuangan. Dalam makalah ini pengangkutan dan pengelolaan sampah dirumuskan berdasarkan Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem Time Window Multiple Depo Intermediete Facility (CVRPTWMDIF). Setiap kendaraan ditugaskan untuk mengunjungi beberapa Tempat Pemrosesan Sementara (TPS), hingga truk penuh atau kapasitas angkut tercapai, kemudian sampah diangkut ke Tempat Pembuangan Akhir (TPA). Akhirnya semua truk kembali ke depot menjelang akhir operasi setiap harinya. Awalnya solusi CVRPTWMDIF diperiksa pada permasalahan sederhana sebelum diperiksa ke dalam pengangkutan sampah yang nyata. Solusi yang ditemukan menggunakan CVRPTWMDIFdibandingkan dengan praktek angkutan sampah di Kota Bandung, ditemukan bahwa dengan jam operasi dan jumlah armada angkut yang sama CVRPTWMDIF dapat mengurangi volume sampah yang tak terangkut hampir setengahnya pada akhir operasi harian.Abstract. Cities in developing countries still operate a traditional waste transport and handling where rubbish were collected at regular intervals by specialized trucks from curb-side collection or transfer point prior to transport them to a final dump site. The problem are worsening as some cities experience exhausted waste collection services because the system is inadequately managed, fiscal capacity to invest in adequate vehicle fleets is lacking and also due to uncontrolled dumpsites location. In this paper problem of waste collection and handling is formulated based on Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem Time Window Multiple Depo Intermediete Facility (CVRPTWMDIF). Each vehicle was assigned to visit several intermediate transfer points, until the truck loading or volume capacity reached then waste are transported to final landfill or dump site. Finally all trucks will return to a depot at the end of daily operation. Initially the solution of CVRPTWMDIF problem was tested on a simple hypothetical waste handling before being implemented into a real case problem. Solutions found using CVRPTWMDIF compared with the practice of waste transport and handling in the city of Bandung. Based on a common hours of operation and the same number of transport fleets, it was found that CVRPTWMDIF can reduce the volume of waste that is not transported by almost half by the end of the daily operations

Analisis Dampak Lalu Lintas dari Gedung Bertingkat Sangat Tinggi pada Kawasan Sentra Bisnis

Abstrak Pembangunan dan operasional gedung sangat tinggi pada kawasan sentra bisnis dapat menarik dan membangkitkan lalu lintas yang signifikan pada jaringan jalan di kawasan dan sekitarnya. Dengan mengunakan simulator jaringan jalan, yaitu Paramics, makalah ini menganalisis dampak lalu lintas dari pembangunan sebuah super high-rise building atau gedung bertingkat sangat tinggi (GBST) pada kawasan sentra bisnis di Jakarta. Simulator ini divalidasi dengan menggunakan data observasi dilapangan, yaitu data arus kendaraan pada jam puncak. Studi ini juga mengusulkan metode estimasi nilai trip rate untuk super high-rise building. Metode pengukuran tersebut dikembangkan berdasarkan survei bangkitan-tarikan dari gedung dengan fungsi atau karakteristik sejenis di kawasan bisnis tersebut. Metode yang telah dikembangkan tersebut kemudian diterapkan untuk sebuah studi kasus. Studi ini kemudian melakukan pengujian dari beberapa tindakan manajemen lalu lintas untuk meminimalkan dampak lalu lintas yang ditimbulkan oleh pengoperasian gedung super tinggi. Tindakan tersebut diantaranya adalah penambahan lajur jalan, sinyalisasi persimpangan dan pengoperasian transportasi publik di sekitar kawasan. Hasil dari studi ini menunjukan bahwa penerapan tindakan-tindakan manajemen lalu lintas tersebut efektif dalam mengurangi dampak lalu lintas yang diakibatkan oleh pembangunan gedung GBST. Keywords: Gedung bertingkat sangat tinggi, analisis dampak lalu lintas, pemodelan jaringan mikroskopik, trip rate. Abstract The development and operation of a super high-rise building in a central business district will attract and generate significant traffic at nearby road network and surrounding area. Using microscopic traffic network simulator, Paramics, this paper assesses  traffic impact of the development of a super high-rise building located in a busy central business district in Jakarta. The simulator  was validated using field observational data, peak hour traffic flow. This paper also outlines a procedure in  estimating potential  trip rate for a super high-rise building. The estimation method is developed based on trip generation and attraction survey at a building with similar function or characteristic surrounding the business district. The method that has been developed is then applied for the case study. This study then examines the effectiveness of several traffic management measures to minimize the traffic impact caused by the operation of the high-rise building, which are lane addition to road segments, intersection signalization and the operation of public transportation around the district. The results shows that the traffic management measures are effective in reducing the negative impact of the super high-rise building to the surrounding traffic. Keywords: Super high-rise building, traffic impact assessment, microscopic network modeling, trip rate.  Pembangunan dan operasional gedung sangat tinggi pada kawasan sentra bisnis dapat menarik dan membangkitkan lalu lintas yang signifikan pada jaringan jalan di kawasan dan sekitarnya. Dengan mengunakan simulator jaringan jalan, yaitu Paramics, makalah ini menganalisis dampak lalu lintas dari pembangunan sebuah super high-rise building atau gedung bertingkat sangat tinggi (GBST) pada kawasan sentra bisnis di Jakarta. Simulator ini divalidasi dengan menggunakan data observasi dilapangan, yaitu data kecepatan rata-rata dan panjang antrian kendaraan. Studi ini juga mengusulkan metode estimasi nilai trip rate untuk super high-rise building. Metode pengukuran tersebut dikembangkan berdasarkan survei bangkitan-tarikan dari gedung dengan fungsi atau karakteristik sejenis di kawasan bisnis tersebut. Metode yang telah dikembangkan tersebut kemudian diterapkan untuk sebuah studi kasus. Studi ini kemudian melakukan pengujian dari beberapa tindakan manajemen lalu lintas untuk meminimalkan dampak lalu lintas yang ditimbulkan oleh pengoperasian gedung super tinggi. Tindakan tersebut diantaranya adalah penambahan lajur jalan, sinyalisasi persimpangan dan pengoperasian transportasi publik di sekitar kawasan

An analysis of activity timing and mode choice behavior for fixed time workers

Generally, the activity based travel demand modeling was resulted from various professions of individuals such as students, workers and non-workers. The model cannot properly represent travel behavior because their characteristics of activities timing and time allocation in a day significantly different. The purpose of this paper is to analyze travel behavior of out of home non-work activities of working groups who have fixed time working hours within a day in location study Palembang City, Indonesia. The effort to explains the travel behavior is conducted through developing activity timing and mode choice model for out of home non work activities. The activity timing and mode choice model are developed as multinomial logit model by adding the utility function of time allocation for non-work activities. There are 9 alternatives in the model in which the alternatives are the combination of 3 activity time schedule and 3 alternative modes. The result of the model significantly reveals that the characteristic of working individuals in deciding certain modes are not only caused by the mode attributes, such as travel time and cost, but also by the type and time allocation for non-working activities related to that travel