Aid, growth and peace: A comparative analysis.

yesThe paper examines patterns of post-conflict aid in a sample of 14 countries, with in-depth, qualitative analysis of seven cases (Bosnia, Cambodia, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Guatemala, Mozambique and Rwanda). The study takes previous work by Paul Collier and associates in this area as a starting point, but disaggregates the data by type of aid, time intervals, and historical period. The findings significantly qualify the Collier conclusion to the effect that donors respond to a CNN-effect in a dysfunctional manner by rushing in aid soon after a peace agreement is concluded and scaling back too soon. Rather, disaggregated analysis shows that post-war aid follows several patterns and can best be understood as strategic behavior designed to promote a range of economic and political objectives. This paper also questions the related policy recommendation of the Collier research on post-conflict aid, namely that post-conflict aid should be phased in so as to maximize economic growth on the grounds that this is important to sustain peace during the first post-conflict decade. Instead, this paper finds, aid strategies that demonstrate early and firm donor commitment to the new order are more likely to stabilize peace in the short run, and aid strategies that address the underlying sources of conflict are important to sustain peace in the longer run

An Investigation of the Change in Real Estate Investment Trust Betas

The betas on equity real estate investment trusts (EREITs) have undergone a structural shift in the past 20 years. We show that this is the result of the lower variability of EREIT returns and argue that the decrease in the standard deviation of EREIT returns can be attributed to the increasing levels of information about EREITs. We find that the number of analysts following the EREITs industry, as measured by IBES, can significantly explain the drop in the standard deviation for most EREITs. This was also found to be the case for another proxy for the level of information-the trading volume of the EREIT index. Copyright American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

Office Building Investment and the Macroeconomy: Empirical Evidence, 1973-1985

Given the recent concern about overbuilding in the office sector, this paper considers the influence that macroeconomic factors have upon office construction. Because office construction is volatile and because the "time to build" problem requires construction to change with a lag, the paper employs a different methodology, vector autoregressions, to model the office building sector. The findings indicate that anticipated output has a large and direct effect. This effect depends on the predictive content of nominal interest rates, suggesting that the declines in nominal rates over the past five years explains the recent overbuilding. Copyright American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.