Rare Events of Transitory Queues

We study the rare event behavior of the workload process in a transitory queue, where the arrival epochs (or points) of a finite number of jobs are assumed to be the ordered statistics of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables. The service times (or marks) of the jobs are assumed to be i.i.d. random variables with a general distribution, that are jointly independent of the arrival epochs. Under the assumption that the service times are strictly positive, we derive the large deviations principle (LDP) satisfied by the workload process. The analysis leverages the connection between ordered statistics and self-normalized sums of exponential random variables to establish the LDP. This paper presents the first analysis of rare events in transitory queueing models, supplementing prior work that has focused on fluid and diffusion approximations

Transitory Queueing Networks

Queueing networks are notoriously difficult to analyze sans both Markovian and stationarity assumptions. Much of the theoretical contribution towards performance analysis of time-inhomogeneous single class queueing networks has focused on Markovian networks, with the recent exception of work in Liu and Whitt (2011) and Mandelbaum and Ramanan (2010). In this paper, we introduce transitory queueing networks as a model of inhomogeneous queueing networks, where a large, but finite, number of jobs arrive at queues in the network over a fixed time horizon. The queues offer FIFO service, and we assume that the service rate can be time-varying. The non-Markovian dynamics of this model complicate the analysis of network performance metrics, necessitating approximations. In this paper we develop fluid and diffusion approximations to the number-in-system performance metric by scaling up the number of external arrivals to each queue, following Honnappa et al. (2014). We also discuss the implications for bottleneck detection in tandem queueing networks

Dominating Points of Gaussian Extremes

We quantify the large deviations of Gaussian extreme value statistics on closed convex sets in d-dimensional Euclidean space. The asymptotics imply that the extreme value distribution exhibits a rate function that is a simple quadratic function of a unique "dominating point" located on the boundary of the convex set. Furthermore, the dominating point is identified as the optimizer of a certain convex quadratic programming problem, indicating a "collusion" between the dependence structure of the Gaussian random vectors and the geometry of the convex set in determining the asymptotics. We specialize our main result to polyhedral sets which appear frequently in other contexts involving logarithmic asymptotics. We also extend the main result to characterize the large deviations of Gaussian-mixture extreme value statistics on general convex sets. Our results have implications to contexts arising in rare-event probability estimation and stochastic optimization, since the nature of the dominating point and the rate function suggest importance sampling measures

Asymptotically optimal appointment schedules with customer no-shows

We consider the problem of scheduling appointments for a finite customer population to a service facility with customer no-shows, to minimize the sum of customer waiting time and server overtime costs. Since appointments need to be scheduled ahead of time we refer to this problem as an optimization problem rather than a dynamic control one. We study this optimization problem in fluid and diffusion scales and identify asymptotically optimal schedules in both scales. In fluid scale, we show that it is optimal to schedule appointments so that the system is in critical load; thus heavy-traffic conditions are obtained as a result of optimization rather than as an assumption. In diffusion scale, we solve this optimization problem in the large horizon limit. Our explicit stationary solution of the corresponding Brownian Optimization Problem translates the customer-delay versus server-overtime tradeoff to a tradeoff between the state of a reflected Brownian motion in the half-line and its local time at zero. Motivated by work on competitive ratios, we also consider a reference model in which an oracle provides the decision maker with the complete randomness information. The difference between the values of the scheduling problem for the two models, to which we refer as the stochasticity gap (SG), quantifies the degree to which it is harder to design a schedule under uncertainty than when the stochastic primitives (i.e., the no-shows and service times) are known in advance. In the fluid scale, the SG converges to zero, but in the diffusion scale it converges to a positive constant that we compute

Conditioned Functional Limits and Applications to Queues

We consider a renewal process that is conditioned on the number of events in a fixed time horizon. We prove that a centered and scaled version of this process converges to a Brownian bridge, as the number of events grows large, which relies on first establishing a functional strong law of large numbers result to determine the centering. These results are consistent with the asymptotic behavior of a conditioned Poisson process. We prove the limit theorems over triangular arrays of exchangeable random variables, obtained by conditionning a sequence of independent and identically distributed renewal processes. We construct martingale difference sequences with respect to these triangular arrays, and use martingale convergence results in our proofs. To illustrate how these results apply to performance analysis in queueing, we prove that the workload process of a single server queue with conditioned renewal arrival process can be approximated by a reflected diffusion having the sum of a Brownian Bridge and Brownian motion as input to its regulator mapping.Comment: Submitted to Advances in/ Journal of Applied Probabilit

A Many-Server Functional Strong Law For A Non-Stationary Loss Model

The purpose of this note is to show that it is possible to establish a many-server functional strong law of large numbers (FSLLN) for the fraction of occupied servers (i.e., the scaled number-in-system) without explicitly tracking either the age or the residual service times of the jobs in a non-Markovian, non-stationary loss model. This considerable analytical simplification is achieved by exploiting a semimartingale representation. The fluid limit is shown to be the unique solution of a Volterra integral equation

An optimal control approach of day-to-day congestion pricing for stochastic transportation networks

Congestion pricing has become an effective instrument for traffic demand management on road networks. This paper proposes an optimal control approach for congestion pricing for day-to-day timescale that incorporates demand uncertainty and elasticity. Travelers make the decision to travel or not based on the experienced system travel time in the previous day and traffic managers take tolling decisions in order to minimize the average system travel time over a long time horizon. We formulate the problem as a Markov decision process (MDP) and analyze the problem to see if it satisfies conditions for conducting a satisfactory solution analysis. Such an analysis of MDPs is often dependent on the type of state space as well as on the boundedness of travel time functions. We do not constrain the travel time functions to be bounded and present an analysis centered around weighted sup-norm contractions that also holds for unbounded travel time functions. We find that the formulated MDP satisfies a set of assumptions to ensure Bellman's optimality condition. Through this result, the existence of the optimal average cost of the MDP is shown. A method based on approximate dynamic programming is proposed to resolve the implementation and computational issues of solving the control problem. Numerical results suggest that the proposed method efficiently solves the problem and produces accurate solutions

Approximating Systems Fed by Poisson Processes with Rapidly Changing Arrival Rates

This paper introduces a new asymptotic regime for simplifying stochastic models having non-stationary effects, such as those that arise in the presence of time-of-day effects. This regime describes an operating environment within which the arrival process to a service system has an arrival intensity that is fluctuating rapidly. We show that such a service system is well approximated by the corresponding model in which the arrival process is Poisson with a constant arrival rate. In addition to the basic weak convergence theorem, we also establish a first order correction for the distribution of the cumulative number of arrivals over $[0,t]$, as well as the number-in-system process for an infinite-server queue fed by an arrival process having a rapidly changing arrival rate. This new asymptotic regime provides a second regime within which non-stationary stochastic models can be reasonably approximated by a process with stationary dynamics, thereby complementing the previously studied setting within which rates vary slowly in time

A queueing model with independent arrivals, and its fluid and diffusion limits

We introduce the {\Delta}(i)/GI/1 queue, a new queueing model. In this model, customers from a given population independently sample a time to arrive from some given distribution F. Thus, the arrival times are an ordered statistics, and the inter-arrival times are differences of consecutive ordered statistics. They are served by a single server which provides service according to a general distribution G, with independent service times. The exact model is analytically intractable. Thus, we develop fluid and diffusion limits for the various stochastic processes, and performance metrics. The fluid limit of the queue length is observed to be a reflected process, while the diffusion limit is observed to be a function of a Brownian motion and a Brownian bridge process, and is given by a 'netput' process and a directional derivative of the Skorokhod reflected fluid netput in the direction of a diffusion refinement of the netput process. We also observe what may be interpreted as a transient Little's law. Sample path analysis reveals various operating regimes where the diffusion limit switches between a free diffusion, a reflected diffusion process and the zero process, with possible discontinuities during regime switches. The weak convergence is established in the M1 topology, and it is also shown that this is not possible in the J1 topology.Comment: Accepted, Queueing System

Risk-Sensitive Variational Bayes: Formulations and Bounds

We study data-driven decision-making problems in a parametrized Bayesian framework. We adopt a risk-sensitive approach to modeling the interplay between statistical estimation of parameters and optimization, by computing a risk measure over a loss/disutility function with respect to the posterior distribution over the parameters. While this forms the standard Bayesian decision-theoretic approach, we focus on problems where calculating the posterior distribution is intractable, a typical situation in modern applications with %high-dimensional parameter space large datasets, heterogeneity due to observed covariates and latent group structure. The key methodological innovation we introduce in this paper is to leverage a dual representation of the risk measure to introduce an optimization-based framework for approximately computing the posterior risk-sensitive objective, as opposed to using standard sampling based methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Our analytical contributions include rigorously proving finite sample bounds on the `optimality gap' of optimizers obtained using the computational methods in this paper, from the `true' optimizers of a given decision-making problem. We illustrate our results by comparing the theoretical bounds with simulations of a newsvendor problem on two methods extracted from our computational framework