Managed Features and Hedge Funds:

In this paper we study the possible role of managed futures in portfolios of stocks, bonds and hedge funds. We find that allocating to managed futures allow investors to achieve a very substantial degree of overall risk reduction at limited costs. Apart from their lower expected return, managed futures appear to be more effective diversifiers than hedge funds. Adding managed futures to a portfolio of stocks and bonds will reduce that portfolio’s standard deviation more and quicker than hedge funds will, and without the undesirable side-effects on skewness and kurtosis. Overall portfolio standard deviation can be reduced further by combining both hedge funds and managed futures with stocks and bonds. As long as at least 45-50% of the alternatives allocation is allocated to managed futures, this again will not have any negative side-effects on skewness and kurtosis.

Indexation doesn't make sense

In this brief note we argue that for investors that are serious about matching (the risks of) assets and liabilities, indexation is a doubtful proposition as significant autonomous changes may occur in the industry allocation and accompanying risk-return profile of the portfolio underlying the index. The name of the index may not change, but the underlying portfolio does!

In Search of the Optimal Fund of Hedge Funds

In this paper we investigate whether it is possible for a fund of hedge funds to not only offer investors access to a diversified basket of hedge funds but to provide skewness protection at the same time. We study two different strategies. The first is for a fund to buy stock index puts and leverage itself, in line with the skewness reduction strategy proposed earlier in Kat (2002). In general, the latter strategy is too dependent on the actual asset allocation strategy followed by investors to allow a fund to be constructed that is optimal for all investors at the same time. However, for investors that invest more or less equal amounts in stocks and bonds and who keep their hedge fund allocation below 30% such a fund can indeed be structured. The second strategy is for a fund to buy put options on itself. We show that this does allow a fund to offer skewness protection to different types of investors at the same time, but compared to the optimal strategy the protection will be somewhat less accurate. Under both strategies the fund of funds is likely to incur a significant loss in expected return. As long as the hedge fund allocation stays below 30%, however, the loss of expected return on investors’ overall portfolios will remain limited.

Taking the Sting out of Hedge Funds

Although the inclusion of hedge funds in an investment portfolio can significantly improve that portfolio’s mean-variance characteristics, it can also be expected to lead to significantly lower skewness and higher kurtosis. In this paper we show how this highly undesirable side-effect can be neutralized by allocating a fraction of wealth to out-of-the-money put options on the relevant equity index. Based on monthly return data over the period 1994-2001 we show that investors who want to fully eradicate the negative skewness of portfolios containing stocks, bonds and hedge funds will have to sacrifice a not insignificant part of their expected return. Investors who limit themselves to neutralizing only the additional skewness caused by the inclusion of hedge funds will be able to do so at much more favourable terms, however. The latter only need to allocate a small fraction of wealth to index puts and accept a drop in expected return that is unlikely to exceed 1% per annum, depending on the hedge fund allocation. This means that in the current low interest rate environment the costs of eliminating the unwanted skewness effect of hedge funds need not be prohibitively high.

Portfolios of Hedge Funds What Investors Really Invest In

Using monthly return data over the period June 1994 – May 2001 we investigate the performance of randomly selected baskets of hedge funds ranging in size from 1 to 20 funds. The analysis shows that increasing the number of funds can be expected to lead not only to a lower standard deviation but also, and less attractive, to lower skewness and increased correlation with the stock market. Most of the change occurs for relatively small portfolios. Holding more than 15 funds changes little. The population average appears to be a good approximation for the average basket of 15 or more funds. With 15 funds, however, there is still a substantial degree of variation in performance between baskets, which dissolves only slowly when the number of funds is increased. Survivorship bias is largely independent of portfolio size and thus cannot be diversified away. Finally, our efficiency test indicates that one only needs to combine a small number of funds to obtain a substantially more efficient risk-return profile than that offered by the average individual hedge fund.

Who Should Buy Hedge Funds? The effect of including Hedge Funds in Portfolios of Stocks and Bonds

Using monthly return data on 455 hedge funds over the period 1994-2001 we study the diversification effects from introducing hedge funds into a traditional portfolio of stocks and bonds. Our results indicate that although the inclusion of hedge funds may significantly improve a portfolio’s mean-variance characteristics, it can also be expected to lead to significantly lower skewness as well as higher kurtosis. This means that the case for hedge funds includes a definite trade-off between profit and loss potential and suggests that, contrary to popular belief, hedge funds might be more suitable for institutional than for private investors. Our results also emphasize the fact that to have at least some impact on the overall portfolio, one has to make an allocation to hedge funds which exceeds the typical 1-3% that many institutions are currently considering.

An Excursion into the Statistical Properties of Hedge Funds

This paper provides an overview of the most important statistical properties of individual hedge fund returns. We find that the net-of-fees monthly returns of the average individual hedge fund exhibit significant degrees of negative skewness, excess kurtosis, as well as positive first-order serial correlation. The correlations between hedge funds in the same strategy group are of the same order of magnitude as the correlations between funds in different strategy groups and relatively low. Only 10-20% of the variation in the average individual hedge fund’s returns can be explained by what happens in the US equity and bond markets. Compared to individual funds, portfolios of hedge funds tend to exhibit lower skewness, higher serial correlation and higher correlation with stocks and bonds. Movements in the US equity and bond markets still only explain 20-40% of the variation in hedge fund portfolios returns though. Finally, an equally-weighted portfolio of all funds in our sample offers a 2.76% higher mean return than the average fund of funds. This strongly suggests that the timing and fund picking activities of the average fund of funds are not rewarded by a higher return.

Stocks, Bond and Hedge Funds: Not a Free Lunch

We study the diversification effects from introducing hedge funds into a traditional portfolio of stocks and bonds. Our results make it clear that in terms of skewness and kurtosis equity and hedge funds do not combine very well. Although the inclusion of hedge funds may significantly improve a portfolio’s mean-variance characteristics, it can also be expected to lead to significantly lower skewness as well as higher kurtosis. This means that the case for hedge funds includes a definite trade-off between profit and loss potential. Our results also emphasize that to have at least some impact on the overall portfolio, investors will have to make an allocation to hedge funds which by far exceeds the typical 1-5% that many institutions are currently considering.

The Statistical Properties of Hedge Fund Index Returns

he monthly return distributions of many hedge fund indices exhibit highly unusual skewness and kurtosis properties as well as first-order serial correlation. This has important consequences for investors. We demonstrate that although hedge fund indices are highly attractive in mean-variance terms, this is much less the case when skewness, kurtosis and autocorrelation are taken into account. Sharpe Ratios will substantially overestimate the true risk-return performance of (portfolios containing) hedge funds. Similarly, mean-variance portfolio analysis will over-allocate to hedge funds and overestimate the attainable benefits from including hedge funds in an investment portfolio. We also find substantial differences between indices that aim to cover the same type of strategy. Investors’ perceptions of hedge fund performance and value added will therefore strongly depend on the indices used.Hedge fund, hedge fund index, skewness, kurtosis, autocorrelation, sharpe ratio, mean-variance analysis