Gaussian-process-based demand forecasting for predictive control of drinking water networks

Trabajo presentado a la 9th International Conference on Critical Information Infrastructures Security, celebrada en Limassol (Chipre) del 13 al 15 de octubre de 2014.This paper focuses on short-term water demand forecasting for predictive control of DrinkingWater Networks (DWN) by using Gaussian Process (GP). For the predictive control strategy, system state prediction in a nite horizon are generated by a DWN model and demands are regarded as system disturbances. The goal is to provide a demand estimation within a given condence interval. For the sake of obtaining a desired forecasting performance, the forecasting process is carried out in two parts: the expected part is forecasted by Double-Seasonal Holt-Winters (DSHW) method and the stochastic part is forecasted by GP method. The mean value of water demand is rstly estimated by DSHW while GP provides estimations within a condence interval. GP is applied with random inputs to propagate uncertainty at each step. Results of the application of the proposed approach to a real case study based on the Barcelona DWN have shown that the general goal has been successfully reached.This work is partially supported by the research projects SHERECS DPI-2011-26243 and ECOCIS DPI-2013-48243-C2-1-R, both of the Spanish Ministry of Education, by EFFINET grant FP7-ICT-2012-318556 of the European Commission and by AGAUR Doctorat Industrial 2013-DI-041. Ye Wang also thanks China Scholarship Council for providing postgraduate scholarship.Peer Reviewe

Three-dimensional cephalometric evaluation of maxillary growth following in utero repair of cleft lip and alveolar-like defects in the mid-gestational sheep model

Objective: To evaluate maxillary growth following in utero repair of surgically created cleft lip and alveolar (CLA)-like defects by means of three-dimensional (3D) computer tomographic (CT) cephalometric analysis in the mid-gestational sheep model. Methods: In 12 sheep fetuses a unilateral CLA-like defect was created in utero (untreated control group: 4 fetuses). Four different bone grafts were used for the alveolar defect closure. After euthanasia, CT scans of the skulls of the fetuses, 3D re-constructions, and a 3D-CT cephalometric analysis were performed. Results: The comparisons between the operated and nonoperated skull sides as well as of the maxillary asymmetry among the experimental groups revealed no statistically significant differences of the 12 variables used. Conclusions: None of the surgical approaches used for the in utero correction of CLA-like defects seem to affect significantly postsurgical maxillary growth; however, when bone graft healing takes place, a tendency for almost normal maxillary growth can be observed. Copyright (c) 2006 S. Karger AG, Basel

Improved Understanding of the Ball-Pen Probe through Particle-In-Cell Simulations

Ball-pen probes (BPP)have been deployed in the SOL of numerous tokamak experiments and low-temperature magnetised plasmas to make direct measurements of the plasma potential and electron temperature. Despite strong empirical evidence for the success of the BPP it lacks a theoretical underpinning of its collection mechanism. In this paper we investigate the capability of the probe to measure the plasma potential by means of particle-in-cell simulations. The BPP is found to float at a potential offset from the plasma potential by a factor TₑαBPP. By simulating BPPs and Langmuir probes, excellent agreement has been found between the measured electron temperature and the specified source temperature. The transport mechanism for both ions and electrons has been determined.E×B drifts are observed to drive electrons and ions down the tunnel. This mechanism is sensitive to the diameter of the prob

Revealing natural relationships among arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi: culture line BEG47 represents Diversispora epigaea, not Glomus versiforme

Background: Understanding the mechanisms underlying biological phenomena, such as evolutionarily conservative trait inheritance, is predicated on knowledge of the natural relationships among organisms. However, despite their enormous ecological significance, many of the ubiquitous soil inhabiting and plant symbiotic arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF, phylum Glomeromycota) are incorrectly classified. Methodology/Principal Findings: Here, we focused on a frequently used model AMF registered as culture BEG47. This fungus is a descendent of the ex-type culture-lineage of Glomus epigaeum, which in 1983 was synonymised with Glomus versiforme. It has since then been used as ‘G. versiforme BEG47’. We show by morphological comparisons, based on type material, collected 1860–61, of G. versiforme and on type material and living ex-type cultures of G. epigaeum, that these two AMF species cannot be conspecific, and by molecular phylogenetics that BEG47 is a member of the genus Diversispora. Conclusions: This study highlights that experimental works published during the last >25 years on an AMF named ‘G. versiforme’ or ‘BEG47’ refer to D. epigaea, a species that is actually evolutionarily separated by hundreds of millions of years from all members of the genera in the Glomerales and thus from most other commonly used AMF ‘laboratory strains’. Detailed redescriptions substantiate the renaming of G. epigaeum (BEG47) as D. epigaea, positioning it systematically in the order Diversisporales, thus enabling an evolutionary understanding of genetical, physiological, and ecological traits, relative to those of other AMF. Diversispora epigaea is widely cultured as a laboratory strain of AMF, whereas G. versiforme appears not to have been cultured nor found in the field since its original description

A strategy for the characterization of minute chromosome rearrangements using multiple color fluorescence in situ hybridization with chromosome-specific DNA libraries and YAC clones

The identification of marker chromosomes in clinical and tumor cytogenetics by chromosome banding analysis can create problems. In this study, we present a strategy to define minute chromosomal rearrangements by multicolor fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) with whole chromosome painting probes derived from chromosome-specific DNA libraries and Alu-polymerase chain reaction (PCR) products of various region-specific yeast artificial chromosome (YAC) clones. To demonstrate the usefulness of this strategy for the characterization of chromosome rearrangements unidentifiable by banding techniques, an 8p+ marker chromosome with two extra bands present in the karyotype of a child with multiple anomalies, malformations, and severe mental retardation was investigated. A series of seven-color FISH experiments with sets of fluorochrome-labeled DNA library probes from flow-sorted chromosomes demonstrated that the additional segment on 8p+ was derived from chromosome 6. For a more detailed characterization of the marker chromosome, three-color FISH experiments with library probes specific to chromosomes 6 and 8 were performed in combination with newly established telomeric and subtelomeric YAC clones from 6q25, 6p23, and 8p23. These experiments demonstrated a trisomy 6pter6p22 and a monosomy 8pter8p23 in the patient. The present limitations for a broad application of this strategy and its possible improvements are discusse

The "Artificial Mathematician" Objection: Exploring the (Im)possibility of Automating Mathematical Understanding

Reuben Hersh confided to us that, about forty years ago, the late Paul Cohen predicted to him that at some unspecified point in the future, mathematicians would be replaced by computers. Rather than focus on computers replacing mathematicians, however, our aim is to consider the (im)possibility of human mathematicians being joined by “artificial mathematicians” in the proving practice—not just as a method of inquiry but as a fellow inquirer

Impact of calcium on salivary α-amylase activity, starch paste apparent viscosity and thickness perception

Thickness perception of starch-thickened products during eating has been linked to starch viscosity and salivary amylase activity. Calcium is an essential cofactor for α-amylase and there is anecdotal evidence that adding extra calcium affects amylase activity in processes like mashing of beer. The aims of this paper were to (1) investigate the role of salivary calcium on α-amylase activity and (2) to measure the effect of calcium concentration on apparent viscosity and thickness perception when interacting with salivary α-amylase in starch-based samples. α-Amylase activity in saliva samples from 28 people was assessed using a typical starch pasting cycle (up to 95 °C). The activity of the enzyme (as measured by the change in starch apparent viscosity) was maintained by the presence of calcium, probably by protecting the enzyme from heat denaturation. Enhancement of α-amylase activity by calcium at 37 °C was also observed although to a smaller extent. Sensory analysis showed a general trend of decreased thickness perception in the presence of calcium, but the result was only significant for one pair of samples, suggesting a limited impact of calcium enhanced enzyme activity on perceived thickness

No straight lines – young women’s perceptions of their mental health and wellbeing during and after pregnancy: a systematic review and meta-ethnography

Background: Young mothers face mental health challenges during and after pregnancy including increased rates of depression compared to older mothers. While the prevention of teenage pregnancy in countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom has been a focus for policy and research in recent decades, the need to understand young women’s own experiences has been highlighted. The aim of this meta-ethnography was to examine young women’s perceptions of their mental health and wellbeing during and after pregnancy to provide new understandings of those experiences. Methods: A systematic review and meta-ethnographic synthesis of qualitative research was conducted. Seven databases were systematically searched and forward and backward searching conducted. Papers were included if they were from Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries and explored mental health and wellbeing experiences of young mothers (age under 20 in pregnancy; under 25 at time of research) as a primary research question – or where evidence about mental health and wellbeing from participants was foregrounded. Nineteen papers were identified and the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme checklist for qualitative research used to appraise the evidence. Following the seven-step process of meta-ethnography, key constructs were examined within each study and then translated into one another. Results: Seven translated themes were identified forming a new line of argument wherein mental health and wellbeing was analysed as relating to individual bodily experiences; tied into past and present relationships; underpinned by economic insecurity and entangled with feelings of societal surveillance. There were ‘no straight lines’ in young women’s experiences, which were more complex than dominant narratives around overcoming adversity suggest. Conclusions: The synthesis concludes that health and social care professionals need to reflect on the operation of power and stigma in young women’s lives and its impact on wellbeing. It adds to understanding of young women’s mental health and wellbeing during and after pregnancy as located in physical and structural factors rather than individual capacities alone

Identification of possible virulence marker from Campylobacter jejuni isolates

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.A novel protein translocation system, the type-6 secretion system (T6SS), may play a role in virulence of Campylobacter jejuni. We investigated 181 C. jejuni isolates from humans, chickens, and environmental sources in Vietnam, Thailand, Pakistan, and the United Kingdom for T6SS. The marker was most prevalent in human and chicken isolates from Vietnam.The work was partly supported by the UK Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, award BB/1024631/1 to R.T., D.S., and O.C.; by a Wellcome Trust Institutional Strategic Support Award (WT097835MF); and by a studentship awarded to J.H. Mr Harrison is a PhD student at the University of Exeter under the supervision of D.S. His research focuses on using bioinformatic methods to investigate the comparative genomics of emerging diseases and plant-associated microbes

Use of SNP chips to detect rare pathogenic variants: retrospective, population based diagnostic evaluation

This is the final version. Available on open access from the BMJ Publishing Group via the DOI in this recordData sharing: The data reported in this paper are available via application directly to the UK Biobank. Direct to consumer data are available from the Personal Genome Project website.Objective To determine whether the sensitivity and specificity of SNP chips are adequate for detecting rare pathogenic variants in a clinically unselected population. Design Retrospective, population based diagnostic evaluation. Participants 49 908 people recruited to the UK Biobank with SNP chip and next generation sequencing data, and an additional 21 people who purchased consumer genetic tests and shared their data online via the Personal Genome Project. Main outcome measures Genotyping (that is, identification of the correct DNA base at a specific genomic location) using SNP chips versus sequencing, with results split by frequency of that genotype in the population. Rare pathogenic variants in the BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes were selected as an exemplar for detailed analysis of clinically actionable variants in the UK Biobank, and BRCA related cancers (breast, ovarian, prostate, and pancreatic) were assessed in participants through use of cancer registry data. Results Overall, genotyping using SNP chips performed well compared with sequencing; sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were all above 99% for 108 574 common variants directly genotyped on the SNP chips and sequenced in the UK Biobank. However, the likelihood of a true positive result decreased dramatically with decreasing variant frequency; for variants that are very rare in the population, with a frequency below 0.001% in UK Biobank, the positive predictive value was very low and only 16% of 4757 heterozygous genotypes from the SNP chips were confirmed with sequencing data. Results were similar for SNP chip data from the Personal Genome Project, and 20/21 individuals analysed had at least one false positive rare pathogenic variant that had been incorrectly genotyped. For pathogenic variants in the BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes, which are individually very rare, the overall performance metrics for the SNP chips versus sequencing in the UK Biobank were: sensitivity 34.6%, specificity 98.3%, positive predictive value 4.2%, and negative predictive value 99.9%. Rates of BRCA related cancers in UK Biobank participants with a positive SNP chip result were similar to those for age matched controls (odds ratio 1.31, 95% confidence interval 0.99 to 1.71) because the vast majority of variants were false positives, whereas sequence positive participants had a significantly increased risk (odds ratio 4.05, 2.72 to 6.03). Conclusions SNP chips are extremely unreliable for genotyping very rare pathogenic variants and should not be used to guide health decisions without validation.Wellcome TrustNational Institute for Health Research (NIHR