Some essentials of monetary stability

Harrison was the Bank's chief executive during a period of national economic hardship and financial instability: the early years of his term coincided with the stock market collapse of 1929, the Great Depression, and the bank failures that culminated in the banking crisis of 1933. In this speech, Harrison advocates reforms to strengthen the U.S. banking system and calls for the removal of remaining barriers to international trade. He argues that domestic financial stability in the major trading nations, along with a reestablished system of fixed exchange rates and orderly international payments, is crucial to stabilizing the world economy.International economic relations ; Monetary policy ; Federal Reserve System - History

Forecasting with measurement errors in dynamic models

This paper explores the effects of measurement error on dynamic forecasting models. The paper sets out to illustrate a trade off that confronts forecasters and policymakers when they use data that are measured with error. On the one hand, observations on recent data give valuable clues as to the shocks that are hitting the system and will be propagated into the variables to be forecast (and which ultimately will inform monetary policy). But on the other, those recent observations are likely to be those least well measured. Two broad classes of results are illustrated. The first relates to cases where it is imagined that the forecaster takes the coefficients in the data generating process as a given, and has to choose how much of the historical time series of data to use to form a forecast. It is shown that if recent data is sufficiently badly measured, relative to older data, that it can be optimal in this case not to use old data at all. The second class of results is more general. Here, it is shown that for a general class of linear autoregressive forecasting models, the optimal weight to place on a data observation of some age, relative to the weight in the true data generating process, will depend on the measurement error in that data. The gains to be had in forecasting are illustrated using a model of UK business investment growth.measurement error, forecasting, signal-extraction

A farm level assessment of the profitability of Entry Level Scheme participation in the Lincolnshire Wolds

The paper builds on the results of previous studies investigating whether farmers profit by participation in the Entry Level Scheme (ELS). Standard payment levels (derived from points) under ELS are fixed at rates that are expected only to compensate farmers for income foregone and costs incurred. There is no profit element as such. There is therefore no reason to expect participation to be profitable. However farm level examination of the income foregone and costs incurred in previous studies based in other parts of England have shown that this can be achieved. The study is based in the Lincolnshire Wolds, an area dominated by arable farming but with topography and associated natural features that offer some variety in the mix of farming and the measures that can qualify for environmental prescriptions under the scheme. The study concluded that farmers were able to profit by ELS participation but that the extent of this varied according to the type of environmental features on the farm and whether arable land was taken out of production. These conclusions have potential implications for scheme design, farmer uptake and additionality in the use of public funds to acquire environmental benefits.Entry Level Scheme, agri-environmental payments, income forgone, partial budgets, profitability., Farm Management, Q58,

Advisor Choice in Asia-Pacific Property Markets

This paper examines advisor choice decisions by publicly traded REITs and listed property companies in Asia-Pacific real estate markets. Using a sample of 168 firms, we find robust evidence that firms strategically evaluate and compare the increased agency costs associated with external advisement against the potential benefits associated with collocating decision rights with location specific soft information. Our empirical results reveal real estate companies tend to hire external advisors when they invest in countries: 1) that are more economically and politically unstable, 2) whose legal system is based on civil law, 3) where the level of corruption is perceived to be high, and 4) when disclosure is relatively poor. Additionally, we find the probability of retaining an external advisor is directly related to the expected agency costs. Lastly, we find evidence of return premiums in excess of 13 % for firms whose organizational structure matches their investment profile. As such, we conclude that the decision to hire an external advisor represents a value relevant trade-off between the costs and benefits of this organizational arrangement

Capital Structure and Political Risk in Asia-Pacific Real Estate Markets

This study investigates the determinants of capital structure decisions by real estate firms, with a specific focus on the impact of political risk on leverage. Using a sample of Asia-Pacific REITs and listed property trusts, we find those firms with properties located in countries characterized by relatively high degrees of political risk, such as political instability, and/or greater uncertainty in the ability to repatriate and monetize profits from international investment activities, employ less debt than their counterparts operating in more politically stable environments. This core finding remains robust to alternative sample selection criteria including the division of the sample into high versus low market-to-book value firms, and also holds within the subset of organizations that are active in raising additional capital in the secondary markets

Clawback Provisions in Real Estate Investment Trusts

Using a sample of 195 unique real estate investment trusts (REITs), we examine factors related to the adoption of clawback provisions within managerial compensation contracts. In general, we find strong and consistent empirical evidence that clawback provision are directly related to firm size, complexity, leverage, growth options, monitoring incentives, and CEO performance incentives. We also find that clawbacks are associated with enhanced market and accounting performance, with stronger performance relations observed for adoption decisions tied directly to regulatory mandates. In sum, we conclude compensation clawback provisions represent a value-relevant, strategic governance mechanism for REITs

Alkoxide Routes to Inorganic Materials

An all alkoxide solution chemistry utilizing metal 2-methoxyethoxide complexes in 2-methoxyethanol was used to deposit thin-films of metal oxides on single-crystal metal oxide substrates and on biaxially textured metal substrates. This same chemistry was used to synthesize complex metal oxide nanoparticles. Nuclear Magnetic Resonance spectroscopy was used to study precursor solutions of the alkaline niobates and tantalates. Film crystallization temperatures were determined from X-ray diffraction patterns of powders derived from the metal oxide precursor solutions. Film structure was determined via X-ray diffraction. Film morphology was studied using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and atomic force microscopy (AFM). Epitaxial thin-films of strontium bismuth tantalate (SrBi2Ta2O9, SBT) and strontium bismuth niobate (SrBi2Nb2O9, SBN) were deposited on single crystal [1 0 0] magnesium oxide (MgO) buffered with lanthanum manganate (LaMnO3, LMO). Epitaxial thin films of LMO were deposited on single crystal [100] MgO via Rf-magnetron sputtering and on single crystal [100] lanthanum aluminate (LaAIO3) via the chemical solution deposition technique. Epitaxial thin-films of sodium potassium tantalate (Na0.5K0.5TaO3, NKT), sodium potassium niobate (Na0.5K0.5NbO3, NKN) and sodium potassium tantalum niobate (Na0.5K0.5Ta.05Nb0.5O3, NKTN) were deposited on single crystal [1 0 0] lanthanum aluminate and [1 0 0] MgO substrates (NKT and NKN) and biaxially textured metal substrates via the chemical solution deposition technique. Epitaxial growth of thin-films of NKT, NKN and NKTN was observed on LAO and Ni-5% W. Epitaxial growth of thin-films of NKN and the growth of c-axis aligned thin-films of NKT was observed on MgO. Nanoparticles of SBT, SBN, NKT and NKN were synthesized in reverse micelles from alkoxide precursor solutions. X-ray diffraction and transmission electron spectroscopy investigations reveal that amorphous nanoparticles (~5 nm) of SBT and SBN were synthesized. X-ray diffraction investigations reveal that nanoparticles (~3 nm) of NKT and NKN were also synthesized by this method