Naturally Occurring Markets and Exogenous Laboratory Experiments: A Case Study of the Winner's Curse

There has been a dramatic increase in the use of experimental methods in the past two decades. An oft-cited reason for this rise in popularity is that experimental methods provide the necessary control to estimate treatment effects in isolation of other confounding factors. We question the relevance of experimental findings from laboratory settings that abstract from the field context of the task that theory purports to explain. Using common value auction theory as our guide, we identify naturally occurring settings in which one can test the theory. In our treatments the subjects are not picked at random, as in lab experiments with student subjects, but are deliberately identified by their trading roles in the natural field setting. We find that experienced agents bidding in familiar roles do not fall prey to the winner's curse. Yet, when experienced agents are observed bidding in an unfamiliar role, we find that they frequently fall prey to the winner's curse. We conclude that the theory predicts field behavior well when one is able to identify naturally occurring field counterparts to the key theoretical conditions.

Naturally Occurring Markets and Exogenous Laboratory Experiments: A Case Study of the Winner's Curse

There has been a dramatic increase in the use of experimental methods in the past two decades. An oft-cited reason for this rise in popularity is that experimental methods provide the necessary control to estimate treatment effects in isolation of other confounding factors. We examine the relevance of experimental findings from laboratory settings that abstract from the field context of the task that theory purports to explain. Using common value auction theory as our guide, we identify naturally occurring settings in which one can test the theory. In our treatments the subjects are not picked at random, as in lab experiments with student subjects, but are deliberately identified by their trading roles in the natural field setting. We find that experienced agents bidding in familiar roles do not fall prey to the winner's curse. Yet, when experienced agents are observed bidding in an unfamiliar role, we find that they frequently fall prey to the winner's curse. We conclude that the theory predicts field behavior well when one is able to identify naturally occurring field counterparts to the key theoretical conditions.

Enhancing service requirements of technical product-service systems

Due to the integration of product and services as a new business model, product reliability and strategies for cost reduction at the early design stage have become important factors for many manufacturing firms. It is, therefore, critical at this phase to analyse the risk involved with Service Requirements noncompliance in order to help designers make informed decisions; as these decisions have a large impact on the Product Life Cycle (PLC). An investigation has been performed into how Service Requirements are analysed in a service orientated business to achieve reduced Life Cycle Cost (LCC) and improvements of existing Service Requirements. Weibull distribution and Monte Carlo principle have been proposed to do so; as they are considered as the most widely used in product reliability studies in the industry sector. A generic methodology for risk evaluation of failure to deliver a new product against Service Requirements is presented in this paper. This is part of the ongoing research project which aims to, apart from comparing current and targeted Service Requirements, it also facilitates an optimisation of them at the minimum risk of nonconformity

Scintillation counters for slow neutrons

The suitability of boric oxide glass containing phosphorescent materials for use as scintillation counters for slow neutrons is investigated both theoretically and experimentally. A theory is developed which can be used for predicting counting efficiencies of the phosphor disks given optical data and neutron absorption properties of the materials present, and physical details of the experimental arrangement. This is compared to experiment in one case with good agreement. It is shown that there are serious practical difficulties in the use of a boric glass phosphor as a slow neutron detector

An integrated aerospace requirement setting and risk analysis tool for life cycle cost reduction and system design improvement

In the early conceptual stage of the service orientated model, decisions regarding the design of a new technical product are largely influenced by Service Requirements. Those decisions, therefore, have to merge both technical and business aspects to obtain desired product reliability and reduced Whole Life Cost (WLC). It is, therefore, critical at that phase to define the risk of potential noncompliance of Service Requirements in order to ensure the right design choices; as these decisions have a large impact on the overall product and service development. This paper presents outcome of research project to investigate different approaches used by companies to analyse Service Requirements to achieve reduced Life Cycle Cost (LCC). Analysis using Weibull distribution and Monte Carlo principle have been proposed here; based on the conducted literature review these are considered as the most widely used techniques in product reliability studies. Based on those techniques, a methodology and its software tool for risk evaluation of failure to deliver a new product against Service Requirements are presented in this paper. This is part of the on-going research project which, apart from analysing the gap between the current Service Requirements achievements and the design targets for a new aircraft engine, it also facilitates an optimisation of those requirements at the minimum risk of nonconformity

Detecting early signs of depressive and manic episodes in patients with bipolar disorder using the signature-based model

Recurrent major mood episodes and subsyndromal mood instability cause substantial disability in patients with bipolar disorder. Early identification of mood episodes enabling timely mood stabilisation is an important clinical goal. Recent technological advances allow the prospective reporting of mood in real time enabling more accurate, efficient data capture. The complex nature of these data streams in combination with challenge of deriving meaning from missing data mean pose a significant analytic challenge. The signature method is derived from stochastic analysis and has the ability to capture important properties of complex ordered time series data. To explore whether the onset of episodes of mania and depression can be identified using self-reported mood data.Comment: 12 pages, 3 tables, 10 figure

A study of mono-, di- and tri-tosylated amines : An unexpected sulfonamide

Acknowledgments We thank the UK EPSRC National Mass Spectrometry Service Centre for mass spectrometric data and the UK National Crystallography Centre (University of Southampton) for the X-ray data collections. Funding The author(s) received no financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

The evaluation of cognitive function in the dementias: methodological and regulatory considerations

Impairment of cognitive function is the central feature of dementia. Although, clinically, the cognitive deficit most often manifests itself as memory problems, a number of other areas of cognition are affected, and memory is but one of the cognitive skills compromised in dementia. Dementia with Lewy bodies, for example, accounts for 15% to 25% of all dementias and does not have memory deficits as a core feature. Our cognitive facilities underlie our abilities to engage successfully in the activities of daily living (ADL) and it follows thai enhancement of cognitive function will facilitate performance of ADL The assessment and understanding of these impairments are crucial to any treatment of the disorder. Unfortunately, the principal instrument used to assess cognitive function in most of the major clinical trials of Alzheimer's disease in recent years, the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subsection (ADAS-COG), primarily assesses aspects of memory, which has resulted in other important cognitive deficits in dementia being overlooked. Automated cognitive tests are now available that can identify an earlier onset of improvements in dementia in smaller samples than the ADAS, Regulatory authorities should encourage - or even require - the use of automated procedures alongside the ADAS in pivotal trials to help determine the relative utility of the instruments in the fairest way possible. Whatever the outcome, this will be of long-term benefit to patients, carers, drug developers, clinicians, and regulators in this important area

Crystal structures of four indole derivatives as possible cannabinoid allosteric antagonists

Acknowledgements We thank the EPSRC National Crystallography Service (University of Southampton) for the data collections and the EPSRC National Mass Spectrometry Service (University of Swansea) for the HRMS data. We thank John Low for carrying out the Cambridge Database survey.Peer reviewedPublisher PD