140 research outputs found

    Non-Poissonian Earthquake Occurrence Probability through Empirical Survival Functions

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    Earthquake engineering normally describes earthquake activity as a Poissonian process. This approximation is simple, but not entirely satisfactory. In this paper, a method for evaluating the non-Poissonian occurrence probability of seismic events, through empirical survival probability functions, is proposed. This method takes into account the previous history of the system. It seems robust enough to be applied to scant datasets, such as the Italian historical earthquake catalog, comprising 64 events with M ≥ 6.00 since 1600. The requirements to apply this method are (1) an acceptable knowledge of the event rate, and (2) the timing of the last two events with magnitude above the required threshold. I also show that it is necessary to consider all the events available, which means that de-clustering is not acceptable. Whenever applied, the method yields a time-varying probability of occurrence in the area of interest. Real cases in Italy show that large events obviously tend to occur in periods of higher probability

    On the correlation between solar activity and large earthquakes worldwide

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    Large earthquakes occurring worldwide have long been recognised to be non Poisson distributed, so involving some large scale correlation mechanism, which could be internal or external to the Earth. Till now, no statistically significant correlation of the global seismicity with one of the possible mechanisms has been demonstrated yet. In this paper, we analyse 20 years of proton density and velocity data, as reported by the ISC-GEM catalogue. We found clear correlation between proton density and the occurrence of large earthquakes (M>5.8), with a time shift of one day. The significance of such correlation is very high, with probability to be wrong less than 10-5. The correlation increases with the magnitude threshold of the seismic catalogue. A tentative model explaining such a correlation is also proposed, in terms of the reverse piezoelectric effect induced by the applied electric field. This result opens new perspectives in seismological interpretations, as well as in earthquake forecast

    The 1998-1999 Pollino (Southern Apennines, Italy) seismic crisis: tomography of a sequence

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    In 1998-1999 a seismic sequence occurred in the Southern Apennines, after the moderate size (mb=5.0) 9th September 1998 Pollino earthquake. It lasted about 14 months and was clearly localized to the sole north-west area of the main shock epicenter. Its peculiarity consisted in sudden changes of activity from a series of normal faults with Apenninic (NW-SE) trend and transfer, presumably strike slip, faults with Antiapenninic (NE-SW) and E-W trend. The complexity of the behavior and the different orientations of the activated systems suggest that the area acts as a hinge between the NW-SE trending Southern Apennines and the locally N-S trending Calabrian Arc

    On the Long Range Clustering of Global Seismicity and its Correlation With Solar Activity: A New Perspective for Earthquake Forecasting

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    Large earthquakes occurring worldwide have long been recognized to be non Poisson distributed, so involving some large scale correlation mechanism, which could be internal or external to the Earth. We have recently demonstrated this observation can be explained by the correlation of global seismicity with solar activity. We inferred such a clear correlation, highly statistically significant, analyzing the ISI-GEM catalog 1996–2016, as compared to the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory satellite data, reporting proton density and proton velocity in the same period. However, some questions could arise that the internal correlation of global seismicity could be mainly due to local earthquake clustering, which is a well-recognized process depending on physical mechanisms of local stress transfer. We then apply, to the ISI-GEM catalog, a simple and appropriate de-clustering procedure, meant to recognize and eliminate local clustering. As a result, we again obtain a non poissonian, internally correlated catalog, which shows the same, high level correlation with the proton density linked to solar activity. We can hence confirm that global seismicity contains a long-range correlation, not linked to local clustering processes, which is clearly linked to solar activity. Once we explain in some details the proposed mechanism for such correlation, we also give insight on how such mechanism could be used, in a near future, to help in earthquake forecasting

    Statistical properties of earthquakes clustering

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    International audienceOften in nature the temporal distribution of inhomogeneous stochastic point processes can be modeled as a realization of renewal Poisson processes with a variable rate. Here we investigate one of the classical examples, namely, the temporal distribution of earthquakes. We show that this process strongly departs from a Poisson statistics for both catalogue and sequence data sets. This indicate the presence of correlations in the system probably related to the stressing perturbation characterizing the seismicity in the area under analysis. As shown by this analysis, the catalogues, at variance with sequences, show common statistical properties

    Deep electrical resistivity tomography and geothermal analysis of Bradano foredeep deposits in Venosa area (Southern Italy): preliminary results

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    Geophysical surveys have been carried out to characterize the stratigraphical and structural setting and to better understand the deep water circulation system in the Venosa area (Southern Italy) located in the frontal portion of the southern Appenninic Subduction. In this area there are some deep water wells from which a water conductivity of about 3 mS/cm and a temperature of about 35°C was measured. A deep geoelectrical tomography with dipole-dipole array has been carried out along a profile of 10000 m and an investigation depth of about 900 m. Furthermore a broad band magnetotelluric profile consisting of six stations was performed to infer the resistivity distribution up to some kilometres of depth. The MT profile was almost coincident with the geoelectrical outline. The applied methods allow us to obtain a mutual control and integrated interpretation of the data. The high resolution of the data was the key to reconstruct the structural asset of buried carbonatic horst whose top is located at about 600 m depth. The final results coming from data wells, geothermal analysis and geophysical data, highlighted a horst saturated with salted water and an anomalous local gradient of 60°C/km. The proposed mechanism is that of a mixing of fossil and fresh water circulation system

    Integration of onshore and offshore seismic arrays to study the seismicity of the Calabrian Region: a two steps automatic procedure for the identification of the best stations geometry

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    We plan to deploy in the Taranto Gulf some Ocean Bottom broadband Seismometer with Hydrophones. Our aim is to investigate the offshore seismicity of the Sibari Gulf. The seismographic network optimization consists in the identification of the optimal sites for the installation of the offshore stations, which is a crucial factor for the success of the monitoring campaign. In this paper, we propose a two steps automatic procedure for the identification of the best stations geometry. In the first step, based on the application of a set of a priori criteria, the suitable sites to host the ocean bottom seismic stations are identified. In the second step, the network improvement is evaluated for all the possible stations geometries by means of numerical simulation. The application of this procedure allows us to identify the best stations geometry to be achieved in the monitoring campaign

    The 1998-1999 Pollino (Southern Apennines, Italy) seismic crisis: tomography of a sequence

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    In 1998-1999 a seismic sequence occurred in the Southern Apennines, after the moderate size (mb=5.0) 9th September 1998 Pollino earthquake. It lasted about 14 months and was clearly localized to the sole north-west area of the main shock epicenter. Its peculiarity consisted in sudden changes of activity from a series of normal faults with Apenninic (NW-SE) trend and transfer, presumably strike slip, faults with Antiapenninic (NE-SW) and E-W trend. The complexity of the behavior and the different orientations of the activated systems suggest that the area acts as a hinge between the NW-SE trending Southern Apennines and the locally N-S trending Calabrian Arc

    The clustering of polarity reversals of the geomagnetic field

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    Often in nature the temporal distribution of inhomogeneous stochastic point processes can be modeled as a realization of renewal Poisson processes with a variable rate. Here we investigate one of the classical examples, namely the temporal distribution of polarity reversals of the geomagnetic field. In spite of the commonly used underlying hypothesis, we show that this process strongly departs from a Poisson statistics, the origin of this failure stemming from the presence of temporal clustering. We find that a Levy statistics is able to reproduce paleomagnetic data, thus suggesting the presence of long-range correlations in the underlying dynamo process.Comment: 4 pages, in press on PRL (31 march 2006?

    Evaluation of site effects in the Aterno river valley (Central Italy) from aftershocks of the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake

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    A temporary network of 33 seismic stations was deployed in the area struck by the 6th April 2009, Mw 6.3, L’Aquila earthquake (central Italy), with the aim to investigate the site amplification within the Aterno river Valley. The seismograms of 18 earthquakes recorded by 14 of the 33 stations were used to evaluate the average horizontal to vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) for each site and the standard horizontal spectral ratio (SSR) between a site and a reference station. The obtained results have been compared to the geological and geophysical information in order to explain the resonance frequencies and the amplification levels with respect to surface geology of the valley. The result indicate that there is no uniform pattern of amplification, due to the complex geologic setting, as the thickness and degree of cementation of the deposits is highly variable. As consequence, a large number of the local site response is observed, therefore it is very difficult to elaborate a unique model that can explain such a variability of the amplification.Published697-7154.1. Metodologie sismologiche per l'ingegneria sismicaJCR Journalpartially_ope
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