Specification and estimation of spatial econometric models : A discussion of alternative strategies for spatial economic modelling

The semantical insufficiency of (spatial) economic theories necessitates the making of additional assumptions — thereby introducing substantial specification uncertainty — in order to arrive at a fully specified econometric model. The traditional or current approach to econometric modelling treats specification uncertainty inadequately. This proposition is illustrated by two well-known examples from the spatial economic literature. Two alternative specification strategies for spatial economic modelling — designed to improve the current spatial econometric modelling approach — are proposed. One of these strategies is used for a specification analysis of agricultural output in Eire

Inversionistas institucionales, reforma del régimen de pensiones y mercados bursátiles emergentes

(Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se trata la gama de factores que pueden estimular un mayor desarrollo del sector institucional interno mediante medidas de reforma de los sistemas de pensiones. El desarrollo del sector institucional de las economías de mercados emergentes se compara con las experiencias de los países miembros de la OCDE. La atención se concentra en los factores claves que han venido (y siguen) impulsando el crecimiento de las actividades de los inversionistas institucionales de la OCDE y el efecto de los inversionistas institucionales en los mercados bursátiles.

Recursive algorithms for the elimination of redundant paths in spatial lag operators

Recursive algorithms for the elimination of redundant paths in spatial lag operators are introduced. It is shown that these algorithms have superior computational properties in comparison with the cumbersome procedure proposed by Ross and Harary (1952). A rigorous definition of spatial lag operators is given, while a number of mathematical results and properties are derived. Theoretical and empirical results regarding the performance of the proposed algorithms are presented

Visions about the Future of Banking

I will address in this study the future of banking. This will be done against the backdrop of revolutionary forces shaping an increasingly fast-moving banking landscape. The first part of the study focuses on the ultra-long drivers of banking structures and institutions. To that end, I will identify the long-term determinants of our rapidly changing society. The second part will outline the implications of this long-term vision for the strategic direction and business models of banks in the near future

International Economic Linkages and the International Debt Situation

"Coping with the debt crisis" was a major recurrent theme in international economic affairs during the 1980s. Managing the legacy of the crisis remains a major challenge of the 1990s, both for OECD creditor countries and for the debtor countries themselves. During the 1980s, following the Mexican payments crisis of August 1982, a number of debt "plans" and "strategies" have been introduced, but overall progress has been slow; one major achievement, however, has been to avoid a major banking crisis. This article results from a project to investigate the relationship between macroeconomic developments in OECD countries and those in debtor countries'. From the light that this throws on the interaction of international linkages, including those between OECD macroeconomic policies and debtor countries, we can better understand why many of the hopes and expectations of these plans were not realised. To analyse the relationship, between the macroeconomic environment, debt, and economic performance, the approach taken here was to build small macroeconometric models for Latin America (DEMOD) that are simulated in combination with the OECD world model, INTERLINK2. These models, whose broad structure is outlined in the Appendix and described more fully in Dittus and O'Brien (1990), take many variables from INTERLINK, analyse their impact on Latin America, and then provide feedback to the main system. This builds on the strengths of INTERLINK - its global character, providing explicit modelling of international linkages of trade volumes, prices, interest and exchange rates, as well as assuring world consistency - wi$h the additional benefit of more detailed information on Latin American debtor countries. The following section provides a brief overview of the history of the debt crisis during the 1980s. It is followed by three sections which look at different aspects of the relation between debt and macroeconomic developments. First, we look at the influence of the world economy and of domestic policies on the evolution of the debt crisis from 1982 to 1986; then we look at some conditions under which new money packages may be beneficial, and discuss how debtreduction schemes fit into this picture; following this, we consider the impact that macroeconomic imbalances - another recurring theme of the 1980s - may have on Latin America performance and the debt situation. The final section draws some conclusions

The Quest for Stability: The View of Financial Institutions

On September 3-4, 2009 SUERF and Utrecht University School of Economicsorganized the Colloquium "The Quest for Stability" in Utrecht, the Netherlands. The papers included in this SUERF Study are based on contributions to the Colloquium

The Future of Sovereign Borrowing in Europe

In March 2013 around 130 participants from academia, banking and finance, governments and central banking gathered at the premises of the OeNB in Vienna for a conference jointly organized by the European Money and Finance Forum SUERF, the OeNB and the Austrian Society for Bank Research to discuss “The Future of Sovereign Borrowing.” The financial, economic and sovereign debt crisis has fundamentally changed the rules of the game in sovereign debt markets, particularly in the euro area, but also beyond its borders. Sovereign bonds are no longer widely perceived as ‘risk-free’ assets. Even the sovereign bonds of safe-haven countries have come under close scrutiny or lost some of their prime ratings. Yet crisis countries have seen dramatic downgrades of their sovereign debt ratings so that they face soaring risk spreads and unsustainably high financing costs (or even a loss of access to bond market financing), pushing them towards shorter financing or forcing them to rely on financial support from other countries and the international community or massive intervention by central banks

Ramucirumab for Treating Advanced Gastric Cancer or Gastro-Oesophageal Junction Adenocarcinoma Previously Treated with Chemotherapy

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invited the company that manufactures ramucirumab (Cyramza®, Eli Lilly and Company) to submit evidence of the clinical and cost effectiveness of the drug administered alone (monotherapy) or with paclitaxel (combination therapy) for treating adults with advanced gastric cancer or gastro-oesophageal junction (GC/GOJ) adenocarcinoma that were previously treated with chemotherapy, as part of the Institute’s single technology appraisal (STA) process. Kleijnen Systematic Reviews Ltd (KSR), in collaboration with Erasmus University Rotterdam, was commissioned to act as the Evidence Review Group (ERG). This paper describes the company’s submission, the ERG review, and NICE’s subsequent decisions. Clinical effectiveness evidence for ramucirumab monotherapy (RAM), compared with best supportive care (BSC), was based on data from the REGARD trial. Clinical effectiveness evidence for ramucirumab combination therapy (RAM + PAC), compared with paclitaxel monotherapy (PAC), was based on data from the RAINBOW trial. In addition, the company undertook a network meta-analysis (NMA) to compare RAM + PAC with BSC and docetaxel. Cost-ef