C-Reactive protein modulates risk prediction based on the Framingham score: implications for future risk assessment, results from a large cohort study in Southern Germany

Background— The Framingham Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) prediction score is recommended for global risk assessment in subjects prone to CHD. Recently, C-reactive protein (CRP) has emerged as an independent predictor of CHD. We sought to assess the potential of CRP measurements to enhance risk prediction based on the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) in a large cohort of middle-aged men from the general population. Methods and Results— We measured CRP and traditional cardiovascular risk factors at baseline in 3435 white men of German nationality, 45 to 74 years of age. All men were drawn from 3 random samples of the general population in the Augsburg area located in Southern Germany in 1984 to 1985, 1989 to 1990, and 1994 to 1995 (response rate, 80%), and the FRS was calculated in all of them. Outcome was defined as nonfatal and fatal coronary events, including sudden cardiac death. During an average follow-up of 6.6 years, a total of 191 coronary events occurred. Cox regression showed a significant contribution of CRP to coronary event risk prediction independent of the FRS (P=0.0002). In stratified analysis for 5 categories of FRS, CRP significantly added prognostic information to the FRS in subjects in 2 intermediate risk categories (P=0.03 and P=0.02). Conclusions— Our results suggest that CRP enhances global coronary risk as assessed by the FRS, especially in intermediate risk groups. This might have implications for future risk assessment

Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 adds to risk prediction of incident coronary events by C-reactive protein in apparently healthy middle-aged men from the general population: results from the 14-year follow-up of a large cohort from Southern Germany

Background— Chronic inflammation represents an essential feature of the atherosclerotic process. Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2), an enzyme mainly produced by monocytes/macrophages, generates potent proinflammatory products. Methods and Results— Plasma concentrations of Lp-PLA2 were determined by ELISA in 934 apparently healthy men aged 45 to 64 years sampled from the general population in 1984 and followed up until 1998. During this period, 97 men experienced a coronary event diagnosed according to the MONICA (MONItoring of trends and determinants in CArdiovascular disease) protocol. Baseline levels of Lp-PLA2 were higher in subjects who experienced an event than in event-free subjects (295±113 versus 263±79 ng/mL, P<0.01). Lp-PLA2 was positively correlated with total cholesterol (R=0.30, P<0.0001) and age (R=0.12, P=0.001), was only slightly correlated with HDL cholesterol (R=0.09, P=0.005) and C-reactive protein R=0.06, P=0.06), but was not correlated with body mass index or blood pressure. In a Cox model, a 1-SD increase in Lp-PLA2 was associated with risk of future coronary events (hazard ratio [HR] 1.37, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.62). After controlling for potential confounders, the HR was attenuated but remained statistically significant (HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.47). Further inclusion of C-reactive protein in the model did not appreciably affect its predictive ability (HR 1.21, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.45). Conclusions— Elevated levels of Lp-PLA2 appeared to be predictive of future coronary events in apparently healthy middle-aged men with moderately elevated total cholesterol, independent of CRP. This suggests that Lp-PLA2 and CRP may be additive in their ability to predict risk of coronary heart disease