The implications of a changing climate on agricultural land classification in England and Wales

The agricultural land classification (ALC) of England and Wales is a formal method of assessing the quality of agricultural land and guiding future land use. It assesses several soil, site and climate criteria and classifies land according to whichever is the most limiting. A common approach is required for calculating the necessary agroclimatic parameters over time in order to determine the effects of changes in the climate on land grading. In the present paper, climatic parameters required by the ALC classification have been re-calculated from a range of primary climate data, available from the Meteorological Office's UKCP09 historical dataset, provided as 5 km rasters for every month from 1914 to 2000. Thirty-year averages of the various agroclimatic properties were created for 1921–50, 1931–60, 1941–70, 1951–80, 1961–90 and 1971–2000. Soil records from the National Soil Inventory on a 5 km grid across England and Wales were used to determine the required soil and site parameters for determining ALC grade. Over the 80-year period it was shown that the overall climate was coolest during 1951–80. However, the area of land estimated in retrospect as ‘best and most versatile (BMV) land’ (Grades 1, 2 and 3a) probably peaked in the 1951–80 period as the cooler climate resulted in fewer droughty soils, more than offsetting the land which was downgraded by the climate being too cold. Overall there has been little change in the proportions of ALC grades among the six periods once all 10 factors (climate, gradient, flooding, texture, depth, stoniness, chemical, soil wetness, droughtiness and erosion) are taken into account. This is because it is rare for changes in climate variables all to point in the same direction in terms of ALC. Thus, a reduction in rainfall could result in higher grades in wetter areas but lead to lower classification in drier areas

Beyond the Bowen-York extrinsic curvature for spinning black holes

It is well-known that Bowen-York initial data contain spurious radiation. Although this ``junk'' radiation has been seen to be small for non-spinning black-hole binaries in circular orbit, its magnitude increases when the black holes are given spin. It is possible to reduce the spurious radiation by applying the puncture approach to multiple Kerr black holes, as we demonstrate for examples of head-on collisions of equal-mass black-hole binaries.Comment: 10 pages, 2 figures, submitted to special "New Frontiers in Numerical Relativity" issue of Classical and Quantum Gravit

Conformal thin-sandwich puncture initial data for boosted black holes

We apply the puncture approach to conformal thin-sandwich black-hole initial data. We solve numerically the conformal thin-sandwich puncture (CTSP) equations for a single black hole with non-zero linear momentum. We show that conformally flat solutions for a boosted black hole have the same maximum gravitational radiation content as the corresponding Bowen-York solution in the conformal transverse-traceless decomposition. We find that the physical properties of these data are independent of the free slicing parameter.Comment: 12 pages, 11 figure

Total recoil: the maximum kick from nonspinning black-hole binary inspiral

When unequal-mass black holes merge, the final black hole receives a ``kick'' due to the asymmetric loss of linear momentum in the gravitational radiation emitted during the merger. The magnitude of this kick has important astrophysical consequences. Recent breakthroughs in numerical relativity allow us to perform the largest parameter study undertaken to date in numerical simulations of binary black hole inspirals. We study non-spinning black-hole binaries with mass ratios from $q=M_1/M_2=1$ to $q =0.25$ ($\eta = q/(1 + q)^2$ from 0.25 to 0.16). We accurately calculate the velocity of the kick to within 6%, and the final spin of the black holes to within 2%. A maximum kick of $175.2\pm11$ km s$^{-1}$ is achieved for $\eta = 0.195 \pm 0.005$.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures. Version accepted by PR

Supermassive recoil velocities for binary black-hole mergers with antialigned spins

Recent calculations of the recoil velocity in binary black hole mergers have found the kick velocity to be of the order of a few hundred km/s in the case of non-spinning binaries and about $500$km/s in the case of spinning configurations, and have lead to predictions of a maximum kick of up to $1300$km/s. We test these predictions and demonstrate that kick velocities of at least $2500$km/s are possible for equal-mass binaries with anti-aligned spins in the orbital plane. Kicks of that magnitude are likely to have significant repercussions for models of black-hole formation, the population of intergalactic black holes and the structure of host galaxies.Comment: Final version, published by Phys. Rev. Lett.; title changed according to suggestion of PRL; note added after preparation of manuscrip

Exploring black hole superkicks

Recent calculations of the recoil velocity in black-hole binary mergers have found kick velocities of $\approx2500$km/s for equal-mass binaries with anti-aligned initial spins in the orbital plane. In general the dynamics of spinning black holes can be extremely complicated and are difficult to analyze and understand. In contrast, the ``superkick'' configuration is an example with a high degree of symmetry that also exhibits exciting physics. We exploit the simplicity of this ``test case'' to study more closely the role of spin in black-hole recoil and find that: the recoil is with good accuracy proportional to the difference between the $(l = 2, m = \pm 2)$ modes of $\Psi_4$, the major contribution to the recoil occurs within $30M$ before and after the merger, and that this is after the time at which a standard post-Newtonian treatment breaks down. We also discuss consequences of the $(l = 2, m = \pm 2)$ asymmetry in the gravitational wave signal for the angular dependence of the SNR and the mismatch of the gravitational wave signals corresponding to the north and south poles

Where post-Newtonian and numerical-relativity waveforms meet

We analyze numerical-relativity (NR) waveforms that cover nine orbits (18 gravitational-wave cycles) before merger of an equal-mass system with low eccentricity, with numerical uncertainties of 0.25 radians in the phase and less than 2% in the amplitude; such accuracy allows a direct comparison with post-Newtonian (PN) waveforms. We focus on one of the PN approximants that has been proposed for use in gravitational-wave data analysis, the restricted 3.5PN ``TaylorT1'' waveforms, and compare these with a section of the numerical waveform from the second to the eighth orbit, which is about one and a half orbits before merger. This corresponds to a gravitational-wave frequency range of $M\omega = 0.0455$ to 0.1. Depending on the method of matching PN and NR waveforms, the accumulated phase disagreement over this frequency range can be within numerical uncertainty. Similar results are found in comparisons with an alternative PN approximant, 3PN ``TaylorT3''. The amplitude disagreement, on the other hand, is around 6%, but roughly constant for all 13 cycles that are compared, suggesting that only 4.5 orbits need be simulated to match PN and NR waves with the same accuracy as is possible with nine orbits. If, however, we model the amplitude up to 2.5PN order, the amplitude disagreement is roughly within numerical uncertainty up to about 11 cycles before merger.Comment: 14 pages, 18 figures. Modifications resulting from bug fixes in LAL, and extended analysis of numerical errors and phase agreement with PN, now including the 3PN TaylorT3 approximant. No change to main conclusion