Longitudinal analyses of depression, anxiety, and suicidal ideation highlight greater prevalence in the northern Dutch population during the COVID-19 lockdowns

BACKGROUND: The pandemic of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has led to an increased burden on mental health. AIMS: To investigate the development of major depressive disorder (MDD), generalized anxiety disorder (GAD), and suicidal ideation in the Netherlands during the first fifteen months of the pandemic and three nation-wide lockdowns. METHOD: Participants of the Lifelines Cohort Study –a Dutch population-based sample-reported current symptoms of MDD and GAD, including suicidal ideation, according to DSM-IV criteria. Between March 2020 and June 2021, 36,106 participants (aged 18–96) filled out a total of 629,811 questionnaires across 23 time points. Trajectories over time were estimated using generalized additive models and analyzed in relation to age, sex, and lifetime history of MDD/GAD. RESULTS: We found non-linear trajectories for MDD and GAD with a higher number of symptoms and prevalence rates during periods of lockdown. The point prevalence of MDD and GAD peaked during the third hard lockdown at 2.88 % (95 % CI: 2.71 %–3.06 %) and 2.92 % (95 % CI: 2.76 %–3.08 %), respectively, in March 2021. Women, younger adults, and participants with a history of MDD/GAD reported significantly more symptoms. For suicidal ideation, we found a significant linear increase over time in younger participants. For example, 20-year-old participants reported 4.14× more suicidal ideation at the end of June 2021 compared to the start of the pandemic (4.64 % (CI: 3.09 %–6.96 %) versus 1.12 % (CI: 0.76 %–1.66 %)). LIMITATIONS: Our findings should be interpreted in relation to the societal context of the Netherlands and the public health response of the Dutch government during the pandemic, which may be different in other regions in the world. CONCLUSIONS: Our study showed greater prevalence of MDD and GAD during COVID-19 lockdowns and a continuing increase in suicidal thoughts among young adults suggesting that the pandemic and government enacted restrictions impacted mental health in the population. Our findings provide actionable insights on mental health in the population during the pandemic, which can guide policy makers and clinical care during future lockdowns and epi/pandemics

The structure of the symptoms of major depression:Factor analysis of a lifetime worst episode of depressive symptoms in a large general population sample

Background: A range of depressive symptoms may occur during an episode of major depression (MD). Do these symptoms describe a single disorder liability or different symptom dimensions? This study investigates the structure and clinical relevance of an expanded set of depressive symptoms in a large general population sample. Methods: We studied 43,431 subjects from the Dutch Lifelines Cohort Study who participated in an online survey assessing the 9 symptom criteria of MD (DSM-IV-TR) and additional depressive symptoms during their worst lifetime episode of depressive symptoms lasting two weeks or more. Exploratory factor analyses were performed on expanded sets of 9, 14, and 24 depressive symptoms. The clinical relevance of the identified symptom dimensions was analyzed in confirmatory factor analyses including ten external validators. Results: A single dimension adequately accounted for the covariation among the 9 DSM-criteria, but multiple dimensions were needed to describe the 14 and 24 depressive symptoms. Five dimensions described the structure underlying the 24 depressive symptoms. Three cognitive affective symptom dimensions were mainly associated with risk factors for MD. Two somatic dimensions –appetite/weight problems and sleep problems—were mainly associated with BMI and age, respectively. Limitations: Respondents of our online survey tended to be more often female, older, and more highly educated than non-respondents. Conclusions: Different symptom dimensions described the structure of depressive symptoms during a lifetime worst episode in a general population sample. These symptom dimensions resembled those reported in a large clinical sample of Han-Chinese women with recurrent MD, suggesting robustness of the syndrome of MD

Changing The Definition Of The Kilogram:Insights For Psychiatric Disease Classification

Attempts to improve fundamental definitions or classifications are not unique for psychiatry. In a 'hard science' such as metrology-the discipline of measurements in the natural sciences-a major definitional change has been proposed. In 2019, the kilogram will be redefined in terms of a constant of nature instead of a cylinder of platinum-iridium. In this article, we aim to better understand the reasons and procedures for changing definitions by studying the redefinition of the kilogram. In short, the case of the kilogram shows that 1) sometimes the rationale for a redefinition might be clear but the scientific discoveries are not available, and a vast research effort is needed to make progress, 2) progress can be made even in absence of gold standards by reference to the definitions' epistemic aims, and 3) definitions are unlikely to be final as future discoveries might lead to new definitions. These results support the current approach of ongoing, piecemeal revision of psychiatric disease classifications, and stress the importance of robust scientific evidence before changing definitions

Psychiatric comorbidity and causal disease models

In psychiatry, comorbidity is the rule rather than the exception. Up to 45% of all patients are classified as having more than one psychiatric disorder. These high rates of comorbidity have led to a debate concerning the interpretation of this phenomenon. Some authors emphasize the problematic character of the high rates of comorbidity because they indicate absent zones of rarities. Others consider comorbid conditions to be a validator for a particular reclassification of diseases. In this paper we will show that those at first sight contrasting interpretations of comorbidity are based on similar assumptions about disease models. The underlying ideas are that firstly high rates of comorbidity are the result of the absence of causally defined diseases in psychiatry, and second that causal disease models are preferable to non-causal disease models. We will argue that there are good reasons to seek after causal understanding of psychiatric disorders, but that causal disease models will not rule out high rates of comorbidity-neither in psychiatry, nor in medicine in general. By bringing to the fore these underlying assumptions, we hope to clear the ground for a different understanding of comorbidity, and of models for psychiatric diseases. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.</p

Loneliness associates strongly with anxiety and depression during the COVID pandemic, especially in men and younger adults

Loneliness is associated with major depressive disorder (MDD), and likely also with generalized anxiety disorder (GAD). It is unclear if these associations are moderated by age, sex, or genetic susceptibility for MDD. We included 75,279 individuals from the Lifelines COVID-19 study, a longitudinal study of a Dutch population-based cohort. Participants completed up to sixteen digital questionnaires between March 2020 and January 2021, yielding a total of 616,129 observations. Loneliness was assessed with the Three-Item Loneliness Scale, and MDD and GAD with the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview. We used generalized estimating equations to investigate the association between loneliness and MDD and GAD, and whether this association varied across time, age, sex and MDD polygenic risk. Loneliness was strongly associated with all MDD and GAD outcomes. Individuals with the highest loneliness scores were around 14 times more likely to have MDD, and 11 times more likely to have GAD, compared to individuals who reported the least loneliness. The association between loneliness and MDD symptoms was stronger in men, younger individuals, and increased across time. While MDD polygenic risk predicted MDD and GAD outcomes, we did not find an interaction effect with loneliness. Our study, which is the largest to date, confirms that loneliness is an important risk factor for MDD, GAD, depressive and anxiety symptoms, especially in men and younger individuals. Future studies should investigate the mechanisms of these associations and explore loneliness-based interventions to prevent and treat MDD and GAD

Data mining algorithm predicts a range of adverse outcomes in major depression

Background: Course of illness in major depression (MD) is highly varied, which might lead to both under- and overtreatment if clinicians adhere to a 'one-size-fits-all' approach. Novel opportunities in data mining could lead to prediction models that can assist clinicians in treatment decisions tailored to the individual patient. This study assesses the performance of a previously developed data mining algorithm to predict future episodes of MD based on clinical information in new data. Methods: We applied a prediction model utilizing baseline clinical characteristics in subjects who reported lifetime MD to two independent test samples (total n = 4226). We assessed the model's performance to predict future episodes of MD, anxiety disorders, and disability during follow-up (1–9 years after baseline). In addition, we compared its prediction performance with well-known risk factors for a severe course of illness. Results: Our model consistently predicted future episodes of MD in both test samples (AUC 0.68–0.73, modest prediction). Equally accurately, it predicted episodes of generalized anxiety disorder, panic disorder and disability (AUC 0.65–0.78). Our model predicted these outcomes more accurately than risk factors for a severe course of illness such as family history of MD and lifetime traumas. Limitations: Prediction accuracy might be different for specific subgroups, such as hospitalized patients or patients with a different cultural background. Conclusions: Our prediction model consistently predicted a range of adverse outcomes in MD across two independent test samples derived from studies in different subpopulations, countries, using different measurement procedures. This replication study holds promise for application in clinical practice

Intermediate stable states in substance use

Many people across the world use potentially addictive legal and illegal substances, but evidence suggests that not all use leads to heavy use and dependence, as some substances are used moderately for long periods of time. Here, we empirically examine, the stability of and transitions between three substance use states: zero-use, moderate use, and heavy use. We investigate two large datasets from the US and the Netherlands on yearly usage and change of alcohol, nicotine, and cannabis. Results, which we make available through an extensive interactive tool, suggests that there are stable moderate use states, even after meeting criteria for a positive diagnosis of substance abuse or dependency, for both alcohol and cannabis use. Moderate use of tobacco, however, was rare. We discuss implications of recognizing three states rather than two states as a modeling target, in which the moderate use state can both act as an intervention target or as a gateway between zero use and heavy use

Validation of the ADFICE_IT Models for Predicting Falls and Recurrent Falls in Geriatric Outpatients

Objectives: Before being used in clinical practice, a prediction model should be tested in patients whose data were not used in model development. Previously, we developed the ADFICE_IT models for predicting any fall and recurrent falls, referred as Any_fall and Recur_fall. In this study, we externally validated the models and compared their clinical value to a practical screening strategy where patients are screened for falls history alone. Design: Retrospective, combined analysis of 2 prospective cohorts. Setting and Participants: Data were included of 1125 patients (aged ≥65 years) who visited the geriatrics department or the emergency department. Methods: We evaluated the models' discrimination using the C-statistic. Models were updated using logistic regression if calibration intercept or slope values deviated significantly from their ideal values. Decision curve analysis was applied to compare the models’ clinical value (ie, net benefit) against that of falls history for different decision thresholds. Results: During the 1-year follow-up, 428 participants (42.7%) endured 1 or more falls, and 224 participants (23.1%) endured a recurrent fall (≥2 falls). C-statistic values were 0.66 (95% CI 0.63-0.69) and 0.69 (95% CI 0.65-0.72) for the Any_fall and Recur_fall models, respectively. Any_fall overestimated the fall risk and we therefore updated only its intercept whereas Recur_fall showed good calibration and required no update. Compared with falls history, Any_fall and Recur_fall showed greater net benefit for decision thresholds of 35% to 60% and 15% to 45%, respectively.Conclusions and Implications: The models performed similarly in this data set of geriatric outpatients as in the development sample. This suggests that fall-risk assessment tools that were developed in community-dwelling older adults may perform well in geriatric outpatients. We found that in geriatric outpatients the models have greater clinical value across a wide range of decision thresholds compared with screening for falls history alone.</p