K-Adaptability in Two-Stage Distributionally Robust Binary Programming

We propose to approximate two-stage distributionally robust programs with binary recourse decisions by their associated K-adaptability problems, which pre-select K candidate secondstage policies here-and-now and implement the best of these policies once the uncertain parameters have been observed. We analyze the approximation quality and the computational complexity of the K-adaptability problem, and we derive explicit mixed-integer linear programming reformulations. We also provide efficient procedures for bounding the probabilities with which each of the K second-stage policies is selected

Towards Machine Wald

The past century has seen a steady increase in the need of estimating and predicting complex systems and making (possibly critical) decisions with limited information. Although computers have made possible the numerical evaluation of sophisticated statistical models, these models are still designed \emph{by humans} because there is currently no known recipe or algorithm for dividing the design of a statistical model into a sequence of arithmetic operations. Indeed enabling computers to \emph{think} as \emph{humans} have the ability to do when faced with uncertainty is challenging in several major ways: (1) Finding optimal statistical models remains to be formulated as a well posed problem when information on the system of interest is incomplete and comes in the form of a complex combination of sample data, partial knowledge of constitutive relations and a limited description of the distribution of input random variables. (2) The space of admissible scenarios along with the space of relevant information, assumptions, and/or beliefs, tend to be infinite dimensional, whereas calculus on a computer is necessarily discrete and finite. With this purpose, this paper explores the foundations of a rigorous framework for the scientific computation of optimal statistical estimators/models and reviews their connections with Decision Theory, Machine Learning, Bayesian Inference, Stochastic Optimization, Robust Optimization, Optimal Uncertainty Quantification and Information Based Complexity.Comment: 37 page

The decision rule approach to optimization under uncertainty: methodology and applications

Dynamic decision-making under uncertainty has a long and distinguished history in operations research. Due to the curse of dimensionality, solution schemes that naïvely partition or discretize the support of the random problem parameters are limited to small and medium-sized problems, or they require restrictive modeling assumptions (e.g., absence of recourse actions). In the last few decades, several solution techniques have been proposed that aim to alleviate the curse of dimensionality. Amongst these is the decision rule approach, which faithfully models the random process and instead approximates the feasible region of the decision problem. In this paper, we survey the major theoretical findings relating to this approach, and we investigate its potential in two applications areas

Large-scale unit commitment under uncertainty: an updated literature survey

The Unit Commitment problem in energy management aims at finding the optimal production schedule of a set of generation units, while meeting various system-wide constraints. It has always been a large-scale, non-convex, difficult problem, especially in view of the fact that, due to operational requirements, it has to be solved in an unreasonably small time for its size. Recently, growing renewable energy shares have strongly increased the level of uncertainty in the system, making the (ideal) Unit Commitment model a large-scale, non-convex and uncertain (stochastic, robust, chance-constrained) program. We provide a survey of the literature on methods for the Uncertain Unit Commitment problem, in all its variants. We start with a review of the main contributions on solution methods for the deterministic versions of the problem, focussing on those based on mathematical programming techniques that are more relevant for the uncertain versions of the problem. We then present and categorize the approaches to the latter, while providing entry points to the relevant literature on optimization under uncertainty. This is an updated version of the paper "Large-scale Unit Commitment under uncertainty: a literature survey" that appeared in 4OR 13(2), 115--171 (2015); this version has over 170 more citations, most of which appeared in the last three years, proving how fast the literature on uncertain Unit Commitment evolves, and therefore the interest in this subject

Ambiguous joint chance constraints under mean and dispersion information

We study joint chance constraints where the distribution of the uncertain parameters is only known to belong to an ambiguity set characterized by the mean and support of the uncertainties and by an upper bound on their dispersion. This setting gives rise to pessimistic (optimistic) ambiguous chance constraints, which require the corresponding classical chance constraints to be satisfied for every (for at least one) distribution in the ambiguity set. We demonstrate that the pessimistic joint chance constraints are conic representable if (i) the constraint coefficients of the decisions are deterministic, (ii) the support set of the uncertain parameters is a cone, and (iii) the dispersion function is of first order, that is, it is positively homogeneous. We also show that pessimistic joint chance constrained programs become intractable as soon as any of the conditions (i), (ii) or (iii) is relaxed in the mildest possible way. We further prove that the optimistic joint chance constraints are conic representable if (i) holds, and that they become intractable if (i) is violated. We show in numerical experiments that our results allow us to solve large-scale project management and image reconstruction models to global optimality. The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2016.1583