Human agency in disaster planning: a systems approach

This is the final version of the article. Available from Wiley via the DOI in this record.Current approaches to risk management place insufficient emphasis on the system knowledge available to the assessor, particularly in respect of the dynamic behaviour of the system under threat, the role of human agents and the knowledge availability to those agents. In this paper, we address the second of these issues. We are concerned with a class of systems containing human agents playing a variety of roles as significant system elements - as decision makers, cognitive agents or implementers. i.e. Human Activity Systems (Checkland, 1999). Within this family of HASs we focus upon safety and mission critical systems, referring to this sub-class as critical human activity systems or CHASs. Identification of the role and contribution of these human elements to a system is a nontrivial problem whether in an engineering context, or, as is the case here, in a wider social and public context. Frequently they are treated as standing apart from the system in design or policy terms. Regardless of the process of policy definition followed, analysis of the risk and threats to such a CHAS requires a holistic approach, since the effect of undesirable, uninformed or erroneous actions on the part of the human elements is both potentially significant to the system output and inextricably bound together with the non-human elements of the system. We present a procedure for identifying the potential threats and risks emerging from the role(s) and activity of those human agents, using the 2014 flooding in SW England and the Thames Valley as a contemporary example.The project was partially supported the EU-CIRCLE (A pan-European framework for strengthening critical infrastructure resilience) project, funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (Grant Agreement No 653824)

Flood impacts on road transportation using microscopic traffic modelling technique

The research presented in this paper proposes a novel methodology for modelling the impacts of floods on traffic. Often flooding is a complex combination of various causes (coastal, fluvial and pluvial). Further, transportation systems are very sensitive to external disturbances. There is insufficient knowledge on the interactions in these complex and dynamic systems. This paper proposes a methodology for integrating a flood model (MIKE Flood) and a traffic model (SUMO). Traffic on inundated roads will be interrupted or delayed according to the manner of flood propagation. As a consequence, some trips will be cancelled or rerouted and other trips will be indirectly affected. A comparison between the baseline and a flood scenario yields the impacts of that flood on traffic, estimated in terms of lost business hours, additional fuel consumption, and additional CO2 emissions. The outcome suggests that the proposed methodology can help to quantify the flood impact on transportation.Research on the PEARL (Preparing for Extreme And Rare events in coastaL regions) project is funded by the European Commission through Framework Programme 7, Grant Number 603663

Magnetic Resonance Imaging in Malawi: Contributions to Clinical Care, Medical Education and Biomedical Research

Advanced medical imaging technologies are generally unavailable in low income, tropical settings despite the reality that neurologic disorders are disproportionately common in such environments. Through a series of donations as well as extramural research funding support, an MRI facility opened in Blantyre, Malawi in July 2008. Resulting opportunities for studying common tropical disorders, such as malaria and schistosomiasis, in vivo are promising. The subsequent improvements in local patient care were expected and exceptional and include major revisions in basic care protocols that may eventually impact care protocols at facilities in the region that do not have recourse to MRI. In addition, advanced neuroimaging technology has energized the medical education system, possibly slowing the brain drain. Advanced technologies, though potentially associated with significant fiscal opportunity costs, may bring unexpected and extensive benefits to the healthcare and medical education systems involved

A new flood risk assessment framework for evaluating the effectiveness of policies to improve urban flood resilience

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Taylor & Francis via the DOI in this record.To better understand the impacts of flooding such that authorities can plan for adapting measures to cope with future scenarios, we have developed a modified Drivers-Pressures-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework to allow policy makers to evaluate strategies for improving flood resilience in cities. We showed that this framework proved an effective approach to assessing and improving urban flood resilience, albeit with some limitations. This framework has difficulties in capturing all the important relationships in cities, especially with regards to feedbacks. There is therefore a need to develop improved techniques for understanding components and their relationships. While this research showed that risk assessment is possible even at the mega-city scale, new techniques will support advances in this field. Finally, a chain of models engenders uncertainties. However, the resilience approach promoted in this research, is an effective manner to work with uncertainty by providing the capacity to cope and respond to multiple scenariosResearch on the CORFU (Collaborative research on flood resilience in urban areas) project was funded by the European Commission through Framework Programme 7, Grant Number 244047. The work in this paper was partially funded by the PEARL (Preparing for Extreme And Rare events in coastaL regions) project, supported by the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme under Grant Agreement No 603663

Flood impact assessment under climate change scenarios in central Taipei area, Taiwan

Providing effective information regarding flood control for responding climate change is essential to future flood risk management for cities. This study simulated and assessed the impacts of flooding for future climate change scenarios in Taipei city, Taiwan. We modelled rainfall events, generated by general circulation models, with different return periods. The flood extents and damage in the Central Taipei Area for the A1B climate change scenarios were compared to the ones, caused by the rainfall events with same return periods, without climate change (baseline scenario). The proposed approach provides potential flooding maps and flood damage assessment for climate change scenarios as useful information for flood risk management in urban areas.The work is supported by the National Science Council, Taiwan (NSC 99-2915-I-002-120) and the CORFU project, funded by the European Commission through Framework Programme 7, Grant Number 244047

"Particle Informatics": Advancing Our Understanding of Particle Properties through Digital Design

We introduce a combination of existing and novel approaches to the assessment and prediction of particle properties intrinsic to the formulation and manufacture of pharmaceuticals. Naturally following on from established solid form informatics methods, we return to the drug lamotrigine, re-evaluating its context in the Cambridge Structural Database (CSD). We then apply predictive digital design tools built around the CSD-System suite of software, including Synthonic Engineering methods that focus on intermolecular interaction energies, to analyze and understand important particle properties and their effects on several key stages of pharmaceutical manufacturing. We present a new, robust workflow that brings these approaches together to build on the knowledge gained from each step and explain how this knowledge can be combined to provide resolutions at decision points encountered during formulation design and manufacturing processes

Systemic peptide-mediated oligonucleotide therapy improves long-term survival in spinal muscular atrophy.

The development of antisense oligonucleotide therapy is an important advance in the identification of corrective therapy for neuromuscular diseases, such as spinal muscular atrophy (SMA). Because of difficulties of delivering single-stranded oligonucleotides to the CNS, current approaches have been restricted to using invasive intrathecal single-stranded oligonucleotide delivery. Here, we report an advanced peptide-oligonucleotide, Pip6a-morpholino phosphorodiamidate oligomer (PMO), which demonstrates potent efficacy in both the CNS and peripheral tissues in severe SMA mice following systemic administration. SMA results from reduced levels of the ubiquitously expressed survival motor neuron (SMN) protein because of loss-of-function mutations in the SMN1 gene. Therapeutic splice-switching oligonucleotides (SSOs) modulate exon 7 splicing of the nearly identical SMN2 gene to generate functional SMN protein. Pip6a-PMO yields SMN expression at high efficiency in peripheral and CNS tissues, resulting in profound phenotypic correction at doses an order-of-magnitude lower than required by standard naked SSOs. Survival is dramatically extended from 12 d to a mean of 456 d, with improvement in neuromuscular junction morphology, down-regulation of transcripts related to programmed cell death in the spinal cord, and normalization of circulating insulin-like growth factor 1. The potent systemic efficacy of Pip6a-PMO, targeting both peripheral as well as CNS tissues, demonstrates the high clinical potential of peptide-PMO therapy for SMA

ER and HER2 expression are positively correlated in HER2 non-overexpressing breast cancer

PMCID: PMC3446380This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited

Secondhand Smoke Exposure in Hospitality Venues in Europe

BACKGROUND: Although in the last few years some European countries have implemented smoking bans in hospitality venues, the levels of secondhand smoke (SHS) in this occupational sector Could still be extremely high in most countries. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study, was to assess exposure to SHS in hospitality venues in 10 European cities. METHODS: We included 167 hospitality venues (58 discotheques and pubs, 82 restaurants and cafeterias, and 27 fast-food restaurants) in this cross-sectional study. We carried Out fieldwork in 10 European cities: Vienna (Austria), Paris (France), Athens (Greece), Florence and Belluno (Italy), Galway (Ireland), Barcelona (Spain), Warsaw and Lublin (Poland), and Bratislava (Slovak Republic). We measured vapor-phase nicotine as an SHS marker. RESULTS: We analyzed 504 samples and found nicotine in most samples (97.4%). We found the highest median concentrations in discos/pubs [32.99 mu g/m(3); interquartile range (IQR), 8.06-66.84 mu g/m(3)] and lower median concentrations in restaurants/cafeterias (2.09 mu g/m(3); IQR, 0.49-6.73 mu g/m(3)) and fast-food restaurants (0.31 mu g/m(3); IQR, 0.11-1.30 mu g/m(3)) (p < 0.05). We found differences of exposure between countries that may be related to their smoking regulations. Where we sampled smoking and nonsmoking areas, nicotine concentrations were significantly lower in nonsmoking areas. CONCLUSIONS: Hospitality venues from European cities without smoking regulations have very high levels of SHS exposure. Monitoring of SHS on a regular basis as well as a total smoking ban in hospitality sector would be needed

Assessing women's preferences towards tests that may reveal uncertain results from prenatal genomic testing: Development of attributes for a discrete choice experiment, using a mixed-methods design

Prenatal DNA tests, such as chromosomal microarray analysis or exome sequencing, increase the likelihood of receiving a diagnosis when fetal structural anomalies are identified. However, some parents will receive uncertain results such as variants of uncertain significance and secondary findings. We aimed to develop a set of attributes and associated levels for a discrete-choice experiment (DCE) that will examine parents' preferences for tests that may reveal uncertain test results. A two phase mixed-methods approach was used to develop attributes for the DCE. In Phase 1, a “long list” of candidate attributes were identified via two approaches: 1) a systematic review of the literature around parental experiences of uncertainty following prenatal testing; 2) 16 semi-structured interviews with parents who had experienced uncertainty during pregnancy and 25 health professionals who return uncertain prenatal results. In Phase 2, a quantitative scoring exercise with parents prioritised the candidate attributes. Clinically appropriate levels for each attribute were then developed. A final set of five attributes and levels were identified: likelihood of getting a result, reporting of variants of uncertain significance, reporting of secondary findings, time taken to receive results, and who tells you about your result. These attributes will be used in an international DCE study to investigate preferences and differences across countries. This research will inform best practice for professionals supporting parents to manage uncertainty in the prenatal setting