Stocktaking Global Warming:The outcomes of the 2023 Dubai Climate Summit (COP28)

This briefing reviews outcomes of the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP28)held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates in late 2023. In particular, it considered the first Global Stocktake [GST] of actions taken by signatory nations to the 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change. The GST examined the potential impact of bottom-up national pledges on ‘greenhouse gas’ [GHG] mitigation required to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the 21st Century. The achievements at COP28 were mixed, and disappointed many from the climate-vulnerable states at high risk from extreme weather events and rising sea levels. There is a significant GHG emissions gap between that needed to “keep 1.5°C alive” and climate actions identified in the GST. Nonetheless, the Parties agreed to “transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems” in order to reach net zero GHG emissions (i.e., carbon neutrality) by 2050, and to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030. The present assessment sets out the background to what needs to be achieved at future annual COP summits, including the next GST at COP30 to beheld in the Brazilian city of Belém later in 2025

Stocktaking Global Warming:The outcomes of the 2023 Dubai Climate Summit (COP28)

This briefing reviews outcomes of the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP28)held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates in late 2023. In particular, it considered the first Global Stocktake [GST] of actions taken by signatory nations to the 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change. The GST examined the potential impact of bottom-up national pledges on ‘greenhouse gas’ [GHG] mitigation required to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the 21st Century. The achievements at COP28 were mixed, and disappointed many from the climate-vulnerable states at high risk from extreme weather events and rising sea levels. There is a significant GHG emissions gap between that needed to “keep 1.5°C alive” and climate actions identified in the GST. Nonetheless, the Parties agreed to “transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems” in order to reach net zero GHG emissions (i.e., carbon neutrality) by 2050, and to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030. The present assessment sets out the background to what needs to be achieved at future annual COP summits, including the next GST at COP30 to beheld in the Brazilian city of Belém later in 2025

Socio-technical transitions in UK electricity: part 1 – history, actors and pathways

A large interdisciplinary consortium of engineers, social scientists and policy analysts has developed three low-emissions, more-electric transition pathways for the UK. The approach is based on earlier work on understanding transitions, applying a multi-level perspective with landscape, regime and niche levels to the development of sociotechnical scenarios. The pathways to 2050 focus on the power sector, including the potential for increasing the use of low-emissions electricity for heating and transport. Part 1 describes studies of historical energy and infrastructure transitions that help to understand the dynamics and timing of past transitions. The role of large-scale and small-scale actors in the electricity sector and methods used to develop the pathways are then described. In part 2, associated technologies are evaluated to determine the choices that need to be made by UK energy policymakers and stakeholders. All three pathways are appraised in terms of their environmental performance using complementary life-cycle assessment and footprinting methods. Lessons can clearly be drawn for other industrialised nations attempting to reduce the emissions from their electricity generation systems, although local circumstances will determine country- and region-specific options

The prospects for coal-fired power plants with carbon capture and storage:a UK perspective

AbstractCarbon capture and storage (CCS) facilities coupled to coal-fired power plants provide a climate change mitigation strategy that potentially permits the continued use of fossil fuels whilst reducing the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Potential design routes for the capture, transport and storage of CO2 from United Kingdom (UK) power plants are examined. Energy and carbon analyses were performed on coal-fired power stations with and without CCS. Both currently available and novel CCS technologies are evaluated. Due to lower operating efficiencies, the CCS plants showed a longer energy payback period and a lower energy gain ratio than conventional plant. Cost estimates are reported in the context of recent UK industry-led attempts to determine opportunities for cost reductions across the whole CCS chain, alongside international endeavours to devise common CCS cost estimation methods. These cost figures should be viewed as ‘indicative’ or suggestive. They are nevertheless helpful to various CCS stakeholder groups [such as those in industry, policy makers (civil servants and the staff of various government agencies), and civil society and environmental ‘non-governmental organisations’ (NGOs)] in order to enable them to assess the role of this technology in national energy strategies and its impact on local communities

Socio-technical transitions in UK electricity: part 2 - technologies and sustainability

A large interdisciplinary consortium of engineers, social scientists and policy analysts has developed three low-emissions, more-electric transition pathways for the UK. The approach is based on earlier work on understanding transitions, applying a multi-level perspective with landscape, regime and niche levels to the development of sociotechnical scenarios. The pathways to 2050 focus on the power sector, including the potential for increasing the use of low-emissions electricity for heating and transport. Part 1 described studies of historical energy and infrastructure transitions that help to understand the dynamics and timing of past transitions. The role of large-scale and small-scale actors in the electricity sector and methods used to develop the pathways were also described. In part 2, associated technologies are evaluated to determine the choices that need to be made by UK energy policymakers and stakeholders. All three pathways are appraised in terms of their environmental performance using complementary life-cycle assessment and footprinting methods. Lessons can clearly be drawn for other industrialised nations attempting to reduce the emissions of their electricity generation systems, although local circumstances will determine country- and region-specific options

Indicative energy technology assessment of UK shale gas extraction

There is at present much interest in unconventional sources of natural gas, especially in shale gas which is obtained by hydraulic fracturing, or ‘fracking’. Boreholes are drilled and then lined with steel tubes so that a mixture of water and sand with small quantities of chemicals – the fracking fluid – can be pumped into them at very high pressure. The sand grains that wedge into the cracks induced in the shale rock by a ‘perforating gun’ then releases gas which returns up the tubes. In the United Kingdom (UK) exploratory drilling is at an early stage, with licences being issued to drill a limited number of test boreholes around the country. But such activities are already meeting community resistance and controversy. Like all energy technologies it exhibits unwanted ‘side-effects’; these simply differ in their level of severity between the various options. Shale gas may make, for example, a contribution to attaining the UK's statutory ‘greenhouse gas’ emissions targets, but only if appropriate and robust regulations are enforced. The benefits and disadvantages of shale gas fracking are therefore discussed in order to illustrate a ‘balance sheet’ approach. It is also argued that it is desirable to bring together experts from a range of disciplines in order to carry out energy technology assessments. That should draw on and interact with national and local stakeholders: ‘actors’ both large and small. Community engagement in a genuinely participative process – where the government is prepared to change course in response to the evidence and public opinion - will consequently be critically important for the adoption of any new energy option that might meet the needs of a low carbon future

Indicative energy technology assessment of advanced rechargeable batteries

AbstractSeveral ‘Advanced Rechargeable Battery Technologies’ (ARBT) have been evaluated in terms of various energy, environmental, economic, and technical criteria. Their suitability for different applications, such as electric vehicles (EV), consumer electronics, load levelling, and stationary power storage, have also been examined. In order to gain a sense of perspective regarding the performance of the ARBT [including Lithium-Ion batteries (LIB), Li-Ion Polymer (LIP) and Sodium Nickel Chloride (NaNiCl) {or ‘ZEBRA’} batteries] they are compared to more mature Nickel–Cadmium (Ni–Cd) batteries. LIBs currently dominate the rechargeable battery market, and are likely to continue to do so in the short term in view of their excellent all-round performance and firm grip on the consumer electronics market. However, in view of the competition from Li-Ion Polymer their long-term future is uncertain. The high charge/discharge cycle life of Li-Ion batteries means that their use may grow in the electric vehicle (EV) sector, and to a lesser extent in load levelling, if safety concerns are overcome and costs fall significantly. LIP batteries exhibited attractive values of gravimetric energy density, volumetric energy density, and power density. Consequently, they are likely to dominate the consumer electronics market in the long-term, once mass production has become established, but may struggle to break into other sectors unless their charge/discharge cycle life and cost are improved significantly. ZEBRA batteries are presently one of the technologies of choice for EV development work. Nevertheless, compared to other ARBT, such batteries only represent an incremental step forward in terms of energy and environmental performance