SALES RESPONSES TO RECALLS FOR LISTERIA MONOCYTOGENES: EVIDENCE FROM BRANDED READY-TO-EAT MEATS

Empirical models are used to measure sales losses experienced by frankfurter brands following a recall for a foodborne pathogen. Recalled brands experience a 22 to 27 percent sales decline after a recall. Brand recovery occurs within 4 to 5 months after a recall. Non-recalled brands do not experience sales losses.Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,

The Economic Potential of Composting Breeder and Pullet Litter with Eggshell Waste

Expansion of the wastes coordinated by the Ozark Poultry Litter Bank is needed. This study examined a method of combining low value poultry wastes to produce compost. Analyses of four compost blends and two hypothetical production systems provide entrepreneurs with the production and financial information to make informed decisions.composting, poultry industry, waste management, product development, Environmental Economics and Policy, Livestock Production/Industries, Q53, Q13, Q16,

The Broiler-Corn Ratio: Is it an Indicator of Fattened Broiler Profits?

As consumers eat healthier and obesity concerns increase, the poultry industry continues growth in sales and revenues. Data reflect ten years of broiler prices, exports, egg and chick production, cold storage stocks, company earnings and stock price. Expected results suggest a broiler-corn ratio is an indicator of company profits.Livestock Production/Industries,

A Comparative Assessment of the Broiler:Corn Ratio and Its Impact on Broiler Processors' Profitability

Input prices for broiler production, particularly corn, are becoming increasingly volatile due to increasing competition for corn from ethanol and biofuels production suggesting volatility in poultry profits will follow indicator of profits relating feed input prices and broiler meat output prices, such as a Broiler:corn ratios. Total chicken exports, total chicken ready-to-cook production, number of eggs set, number of chicks placed, and cold storage chicken inventory are used to estimate. Utilizing a distributed lag model, seventeen years of data for three Broiler:corn ratios, broiler exports, egg set, chick placements, cold storage stocks, and ready-to-cook broiler production were utilized to estimate stock share price for four major broiler producers.Demand and Price Analysis, Livestock Production/Industries,

Policies to Protect Food Safety and Animal Health

Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Livestock Production/Industries, Q16, Q17, Q18,

Analyzing FSA Direct Loan Borrower Payback Histories: Predictors of Financial Improvement and Loan Servicing Actions

Classical and count data regression models are estimated to predict improvement in three key financial indicators—net worth, debt-to-asset ratio and current ratio—as well as the number of loan restructurings and delinquencies. Data consist of Farm Service Agency direct loans originated in fiscal years 1994-1996. Models to predict outcomes vary by loan type. Models explaining variation in the financial measures have modest explanatory power but initial levels of debt-to-asset ratio and current ratio are significant in explaining changes in debt-to-asset ratios and current ratios, respectively. Models explaining number of restructurings and delinquencies for operating loans have satisfactory explanatory power. Increasing crop revenues to total farm revenues and increasing farm size lead to increased loan servicing actionsFSA direct loans, financial improvement, loan servicing actions, Agricultural Finance, Farm Management, q14, q12,

FSA Direct Farm Loan Program Graduation Rates and Reasons for Exiting

Farm Service Agency (FSA) direct loans are intended to provide transitory credit to creditworthy borrowers unable to obtain conventional credit at reasonable terms. Farm loan program (FLP) effectiveness is measured in part by how readily direct loan borrowers graduate to conventional credit. A survey of FSA borrowers originating direct loans during fiscal years 1994-1996 is utilized to estimate graduation rates. A majority of 1994-1996 loan originators did exit the direct FLP by November 2004. A multinomial logit model indicates financial strength at origination resulted in greater likelihood of farming without direct loans approximately nine years after loan origination.Agricultural Finance,

Analysis of Farm Service Agency Direct Loan Loss Likelihoods and Loss Rates

The USDA's Farm Service Agency (FSA) serves as the nation's lender of last resort by providing direct loans to farmers unable to obtain credit at reasonable rates and terms. Annual loan losses have been substantial, averaging $576 million for fiscal 1994-2004. An econometric model using survey data from a sample of FSA loans originated in fiscal 1994-1996 is estimated to identify factors associated with loan losses. The results indicate previous debt settlement experience, loan type, farm type, farm size, and farm financial characteristics are important factors. This information may be used by FSA to adjust its underwriting standards in an effort to reduce loan losses and provide additional loans to farmers given its current funding.Agricultural Finance,

Farm Service Agency Direct Farm Loan Program Effectiveness Study

The three primary objectives of the Effectiveness Study are to: (1) identify groups being served by FSA direct farm loan programs, (2) examine the length of time borrowers remain in the programs and the proportion of borrowers who exit or 'graduate' from the programs, and (3) measure and identify ways of reducing loan subsidy rates. The study found that direct Farm Loan Programs (FLPs) appear to be serving their intended clientele. Recent FLP borrowers are more financially stressed than non-borrowers and would be generally considered as family farms. About 78 to 92 percent would qualify as small family farms using USDA's Small Farms Commission definition. FLP credit market penetration is relatively high among farms likely to be eligible for these credit programs, despite the fact that these programs represent a relatively small proportion of total outstanding agricultural debt. Increasing market penetration or the share of farms served by the program would require greater obligation funding and hence greater budgetary costs. Conversely, implementing more rigorous loan eligibility criteria would likely lower the number of operators receiving loans and hence loan loss occurrences and subsidy rates would likely fall. The majority of FSA Direct borrowers from FY 1994-1996 used FLPs as a transitional tool. At time of origination, FSA Direct borrowers had fewer years of farming experience than the farming population at large. More than half of these borrowers no longer had active FLP loans by the end of November 2004. So for the majority of borrowers, FLPs are not a lifetime credit source. FLPs are helping farmers move to commercial credit or aiding farmers who subsequently leave farming completely, as is common among U.S. farmers. Not surprisingly, farmers in stronger financial condition originating FSA Direct loans are more likely to exit and have fewer outstanding loans with FSA. FSA experiences higher loan loss rates than conventional agricultural lenders. This is to be expected because commercial lenders can be more selective in choosing borrowers and price loans to match risk profiles which FSA does not do. In essence, FSA's mission is to provide credit to riskier 'creditworthy' borrowers. The agency is accomplishing this goal. The natural consequence is that FSA loan loss rates are higher than for conventional lenders. Whether the current borrowers are too risky or should even riskier borrowers be included are policy questions. The analysis indicates that attempts to cut losses systematically would imply denying credit to some current borrowers.Agricultural Finance,

Farm Service Agency Direct Farm Loan Program Effectiveness Study

This final report presents the results of an independent, performance-focused review of the effectiveness of Farm Service Agency (FSA) Direct Farm Loan Programs (FLPs) as requested by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in the 2005 Passback for FSA. The study focuses on FSA’s direct Farm Ownership (FO), Farm Operating (OL), and Emergency (EM) loan programs