Cluster analysis of tropical cyclone tracks in the Southern Hemisphere

A probabilistic clustering method is used to describe various aspects of tropical cyclone (TC) tracks in the Southern Hemisphere, for the period 1969–2008. A total of 7 clusters are examined: three in the South Indian Ocean, three in the Australian Region, and one in the South Pacific Ocean. Large-scale environmental variables related to TC genesis in each cluster are explored, including sea surface temperature, low-level relative vorticity, deep-layer vertical wind shear, outgoing longwave radiation, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Composite maps, constructed 2 days prior to genesis, show some of these to be significant precursors to TC formation—most prominently, westerly wind anomalies equatorward of the main development regions. Clusters are also evaluated with respect to their genesis location, seasonality, mean peak intensity, track duration, landfall location, and intensity at landfall. ENSO is found to play a significant role in modulating annual frequency and mean genesis location in three of the seven clusters (two in the South Indian Ocean and one in the Pacific). The ENSO-modulating effect on genesis frequency is caused primarily by changes in low-level zonal flow between the equator and 10°S, and associated relative vorticity changes in the main development regions. ENSO also has a significant effect on mean genesis location in three clusters, with TCs forming further equatorward (poleward) during El Niño (La Niña) in addition to large shifts in mean longitude. The MJO has a strong influence on TC genesis in all clusters, though the amount modulation is found to be sensitive to the definition of the MJO

A Statistical Assessment of Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Tracks in Climate Models

Reliable projections of future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics are highly dependent on the ability of global climate models (GCMs) to simulate the observed characteristics of TCs (i.e., their frequency, genesis locations, movement, and intensity). Here, we investigate the performance of a suite of GCMs from the U.S. CLIVAR Working Group on Hurricanes in simulating observed climatological features of TCs in the Southern Hemisphere. A subset of these GCMs is also explored under three idealized warming scenarios. Two types of simulated TC tracks are evaluated on the basis of a commonly applied cluster analysis: 1) explicitly simulated tracks, and 2) downscaled tracks, derived from a statistical–dynamical technique that depends on the models’ large-scale environmental fields. Climatological TC properties such as genesis locations, annual frequency, lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), and seasonality are evaluated for both track types. Future changes to annual frequency, LMI, and the latitude of LMI are evaluated using the downscaled tracks where large sample sizes allow for statistically robust results. An ensemble approach is used to assess future changes of explicit tracks owing to their small number of realizations. We show that the downscaled tracks generally outperform the explicit tracks in relation to many of the climatological features of Southern Hemisphere TCs, despite a few notable biases. Future changes to the frequency and intensity of TCs in the downscaled simulations are found to be highly dependent on the warming scenario and model, with the most robust result being an increase in the LMI under a uniform 2°C surface warming

Response of Tropical Cyclone Formation and Intensification Rates to Climate Warming in Idealized Simulations

Abstract There is currently no theory for the rate of tropical cyclone (TC) formation given a particular climate, so our understanding of the relationship between TC frequency and large‐scale environmental factors is largely empirical. Here, we explore the sensitivity of TC formation and intensification rates to climate warming in a series of highly idealized cloud‐permitting simulations, in which TCs form spontaneously from a base state of rest on an f‐plane. The simulations reveal a nonmonotonic relationship between the time taken for a TC precursor disturbance (a “seed”) to form and the prescribed sea surface temperature (SST), with moderately long seed emergence times at both ends of the SST range tested (292 and 304 K) and a shorter seed emergence time at the middle value of SST (298 K). Genesis potential indices (GPIs) exhibit a different response to warming: either a monotonic increase if the potential intensity and midtropospheric relative humidity are used or relatively little sensitivity if the saturation deficit is used as the humidity variable. The sensitivity of elapsed time between a TC seed disturbance and TC genesis to surface warming is, however, generally well captured by GPIs, especially those that depend on the saturation deficit. The maximum intensification rate of TCs increases strongly with warming, particularly during the second half of the intensification process. Notably, storms intensify much more rapidly with increasing temperature than is predicted by extant theory based on potential intensity, suggesting that TCs in a warmer climate may intensify even more rapidly than recent studies suggest

Response-adapted omission of radiotherapy and comparison of consolidation chemotherapy in children and adolescents with intermediate-stage and advanced-stage classical Hodgkin lymphoma (EuroNet-PHL-C1): a titration study with an open-label, embedded, multinational, non-inferiority, randomised controlled trial

Background: Children and adolescents with intermediate-stage and advanced-stage classical Hodgkin lymphoma achieve an event-free survival at 5 years of about 90% after treatment with vincristine, etoposide, prednisone, and doxorubicin (OEPA) followed by cyclophosphamide, vincristine, prednisone, and procarbazine (COPP) and radiotherapy, but long-term treatment effects affect survival and quality of life. We aimed to investigate whether radiotherapy can be omitted in patients with morphological and metabolic adequate response to OEPA and whether modified consolidation chemotherapy reduces gonadotoxicity. Methods: Our study was designed as a titration study with an open-label, embedded, multinational, non-inferiority, randomised controlled trial, and was carried out at 186 hospital sites across 16 European countries. Children and adolescents with newly diagnosed intermediate-stage (treatment group 2) and advanced-stage (treatment group 3) classical Hodgkin lymphoma who were younger than 18 years and stratified according to risk using Ann Arbor disease stages IIAE, IIB, IIBE, IIIA, IIIAE, IIIB, IIIBE, and all stages IV (A, B, AE, and BE) were included in the study. Patients with early disease (treatment group 1) were excluded from this analysis. All patients were treated with two cycles of OEPA (1·5 mg/m2 vincristine taken intravenously capped at 2 mg, on days 1, 8, and 15; 125 mg/m2 etoposide taken intravenously on days 1–5; 60 mg/m2 prednisone taken orally on days 1–15; and 40 mg/m2 doxorubicin taken intravenously on days 1 and 15). Patients were randomly assigned to two (treatment group 2) or four (treatment group 3) cycles of COPP (500 mg/m2 cyclophosphamide taken intravenously on days 1 and 8; 1·5 mg/m2 vincristine taken intravenously capped at 2 mg, on days 1 and 8; 40 mg/m2 prednisone taken orally on days 1 to 15; and 100 mg/m2 procarbazine taken orally on days 1 to 15) or COPDAC, which was identical to COPP except that 250 mg/m2 dacarbazine administered intravenously on days 1 to 3 replaced procarbazine. The method of randomisation (1:1) was minimisation with stochastic component and was centrally stratified by treatment group, country, trial sites, and sex. The primary endpoint was event-free survival, defined as time from treatment start until the first of the following events: death from any cause, progression or relapse of classical Hodgkin lymphoma, or occurrence of secondary malignancy. The primary objectives were maintaining 90% event-free survival at 5 years in patients with adequate response to OEPA treated without radiotherapy and to exclude a decrease of 8% in event-free survival at 5 years in the embedded COPDAC versus COPP randomisation to show non-inferiority of COPDAC. Efficacy analyses are reported per protocol and safety in the intention-to-treat population. The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (trial number NCT00433459) and EUDRACT (trial number 2006-000995-33), and is closed to recruitment. Findings: Between Jan 31, 2007, and Jan 30, 2013, 2102 patients were recruited. 737 (35%) of the 2102 recruited patients were in treatment group 1 (early-stage disease) and were not included in our analysis. 1365 (65%) of the 2102 patients were in treatment group 2 (intermediate-stage disease; n=455) and treatment group 3 (advanced-stage disease; n=910). Of these 1365, 1287 (94%) patients (435 [34%] of 1287 in treatment group 2 and 852 [66%] of 1287 in treatment group 3) were included in the titration trial per-protocol analysis. 937 (69%) of 1365 patients were randomly assigned to COPP (n=471) or COPDAC (n=466) in the embedded trial. Median follow-up was 66·5 months (IQR 62·7–71·7). Of 1287 patients in the per-protocol group, 514 (40%) had an adequate response to treatment and were not treated with radiotherapy (215 [49%] of 435 in treatment group 2 and 299 [35%] of 852 in treatment group 3). 773 (60%) of 1287 patients with inadequate response were scheduled for radiotherapy (220 [51%] of 435 in the treatment group 2 and 553 [65%] of 852 in treatment group 3. In patients who responded adequately, event-free survival rates at 5 years were 90·1% (95% CI 87·5–92·7). event-free survival rates at 5 years in 892 patients who were randomly assigned to treatment and analysed per protocol were 89·9% (95% CI 87·1–92·8) for COPP (n=444) versus 86·1% (82·9–89·4) for COPDAC (n=448). The COPDAC minus COPP difference in event-free survival at 5 years was −3·7% (−8·0 to 0·6). The most common grade 3–4 adverse events (intention-to-treat population) were decreased haemoglobin (205 [15%] of 1365 patients during OEPA vs 37 [7%] of 528 treated with COPP vs 20 [2%] of 819 treated with COPDAC), decreased white blood cells (815 [60%] vs 231 [44%] vs 84 [10%]), and decreased neutrophils (1160 [85%] vs 223 [42%] vs 174 [21%]). One patient in treatment group 2 died of sepsis after the first cycle of OEPA; no other treatment-related deaths occurred. Interpretation: Our results show that radiotherapy can be omitted in patients who adequately respond to treatment, when consolidated with COPP or COPDAC. COPDAC might be less effective, but is substantially less gonadotoxic than COPP. A high proportion of patients could therefore be spared radiotherapy, eventually reducing the late effects of treatment. With more refined criteria for response assessment, the number of patients who receive radiotherapy will be further decreased. Funding: Deutsche Krebshilfe, Elternverein für Krebs-und leukämiekranke Kinder Gießen, Kinderkrebsstiftung Mainz, Tour der Hoffnung, Menschen für Kinder, Programme Hospitalier de Recherche Clinique, and Cancer Research UK